Big Tech Earnings

Weekly Global Market News – february Week 1

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Weekly Global Market News – February -Week 1 Week Ahead Playbook (Week of 3–9 February 2026) What matters this week Japan’s snap election: A short, high-stakes campaign culminates on Sunday. Markets are weighing whether a renewed mandate for the ruling LDP under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi could usher in looser fiscal policy and keep upward pressure on long-dated JGB yields. Thailand votes: A test of stability for a slowing economy contending with trade frictions, weather-related disruption and a tense regional backdrop. The baht and local equities will be sensitive to coalition arithmetic and policy signals. Rates on hold in Europe? The ECB and BoE meet. Consensus looks for no change, with the ECB steady and the BoE waiting for inflation to settle sustainably at target before cutting. Guidance and forecasts will matter as much as the decisions. Macro pulse check: Global PMIs and the US January jobs report headline a busy data slate that will shape views on growth resilience and the pace of disinflation. Earnings heavyweights: Big Tech, energy majors, pharma and consumer bellwethers report. AI investment, cloud and ad trends, obesity drugs, buybacks and capex discipline are the key themes. Geopolitics and industry: The Singapore Airshow opens with defense and aerospace in focus. Later in the week, the Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina provide a tourism and media side-note to markets. Central bank watch European Central Bank (Thu): Broadly expected to leave rates unchanged (market narrative centers on a steady deposit rate profile early in 2026).  Watch: Inflation trajectory versus the ECB’s comfort with near-term downside surprises. Updated language on growth, wage dynamics and the path from “restrictive for longer” to eventual easing. Any hints on balance-sheet operations and reinvestments. Bank of England (Thu): The MPC is widely expected to hold while it waits for inflation to return to 2% in the spring. Watch: Vote split and tone of forward guidance. Fresh views on trend productivity, following signs of a potential UK productivity pickup. How the BoE balances service inflation stickiness against easing goods disinflation. At the ballot box Japan (Sun): The shortest general election campaign in decades has amplified market volatility. Key swing factor: households squeezed by higher prices and rates. Market implications: Rates: Long JGBs remain vulnerable to renewed fiscal expansion signals; curve steepening risk persists. FX: JPY could react to any post-vote policy clarity and risk sentiment. Equities: Domestic cyclicals, banks and construction may move on fiscal tone; defensives on cost-of-living narratives. Thailand (Sun): A fragmented landscape and minority rule have kept uncertainty elevated. Market implications: THB and local bonds will respond to fiscal priorities, investment incentives and external trade positioning. Sectors to watch: banks (credit growth/margins), tourism/leisure (policy support), exporters (tariff and FX sensitivity). Macro data to watch Global PMIs (Mon/Wed/Thu): Manufacturing and services readings across the US, euro area, UK, Japan, China and others will refine the soft-landing debate and pricing power trends. Euro area flash HICP (Wed): A crucial input for the ECB’s inflation narrative; components (core, services) will matter for timing of any future pivot. UK housing (Mon/Fri): Nationwide and Halifax house price updates provide a read on mortgage affordability and consumer confidence. US labor market (Fri): January nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and wage growth will steer expectations for the Fed’s path and real yields. Japan: Summary of opinions (Mon) from the latest policy meeting may offer clues on the normalization roadmap. Earnings spotlight Tech and internet: Alphabet (Wed): Cloud margins, advertising momentum and AI monetization road map. Amazon (Thu): Retail margins, AWS growth and AI infrastructure spend; headcount and cost discipline under the microscope. AMD (Tue), Qualcomm (Wed), Arm (Wed): AI PC/server silicon demand, guidance quality, and supply chain visibility. Snap (Wed), Uber (Wed): Ad mix and engagement (Snap); profitability cadence and mobility/delivery trends (Uber). Pharma/biotech: Pfizer (Tue), Merck (Tue), Eli Lilly (Wed), Novo Nordisk (Wed), AbbVie (Wed): GLP-1 demand and capacity, pricing, pipeline milestones and 2026 top-line bridges. Energy and industrials: Shell (Thu), ConocoPhillips (Thu), Phillips 66 (Wed): Capital return frameworks versus capex; refining margins; LNG updates. Maersk (Thu), Anglo American (Thu), ArcelorMittal (Thu), VINCI (Thu): Freight rates and deglobalization effects; mining guidance; infra backlogs and pricing. Consumer and payments: PepsiCo (Tue), Mondelez (Tue), Chipotle (Tue), O’Reilly (Thu): Volume versus pricing, elasticity and input costs. PayPal (Tue): Take rate trends, cost saves, product roadmap. Autos and Japan Inc: Toyota (Fri), Sony (Thu), Nintendo (Tue), Panasonic (Wed), Mitsubishi Electric (Tue), Suzuki (Thu), KDDI (Fri): FX sensitivities, EV pipelines, gaming cycle, image sensors, and capital allocation. Sectors and themes AI and semis: Watch capex guidance across hyperscalers and chipmakers; supply constraints versus demand exuberance. Healthcare: Obesity-drug capacity, payer dynamics and long-term margin mix. Energy: Discipline remains the mantra; geopolitics and OPEC compliance frame near-term price action. Banks: UK and eurozone banks may react to rate path guidance and loan growth signals; capital returns remain a support. Travel and aerospace: Singapore Airshow headlines drones, fighters and commercial backlogs; Olympics buzz adds a modest lift to European travel/leisure sentiment. Day-by-day calendar (selected) Monday, 2 Feb Data: Global manufacturing PMIs; UK Nationwide house prices; Japan BoJ summary of opinions. Earnings: Central Japan Railway; East/West Japan Railway; TDK; Disney; Tyson Foods; Julius Baer; IDEXX; Revvity. Corporate: AstraZeneca shares begin trading on the NYSE. Tuesday, 3 Feb Policy/Data: Australia rate decision; Euro area Bank Lending Survey; US JOLTS openings. Earnings: AMD, Alphabet (see Wed), PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Merck, Amgen, Mondelez, Chipotle, Electronic Arts, Jacobs, Willis Towers Watson, Prudential Financial, LATAM Airlines, Nintendo, Mitsubishi Electric, Teradyne, Skyworks, Take-Two, Publicis, ADM, Enphase, Ametek, Emerson, Hubbell, Grainger, Ball Corp, Clorox, Kinnevik, LBG Media, Match, Prudential Financial, West Japan Railway. Wednesday, 4 Feb Events: FT energy policy summit (Brussels/online). Singapore Airshow continues. Data: Global services PMIs; Euro area flash HICP; UK international reserves. Earnings: Alphabet, Arm, GSK, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, UBS, Santander, Handelsbanken, Equinor, Phillips 66, Johnson Controls, MediaTek, Panasonic, Rohm, Infineon, Boston Scientific, McKesson, Qualcomm, Uber, Snap, T Rowe Price, Watches of Switzerland, SSE. Thursday, 5 Feb Policy: ECB rate decision; BoE rate decision; Germany factory

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January 28 – Daily Market Update

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28 January 2026 Daily Market Updates Markets Daily: Global Risk Tone Mixed as Investors Await Central Bank Signals and Big Tech Earnings Overview Global markets are starting the week split between optimism in Asia and caution in Europe, while US equity futures edge higher ahead of a heavy earnings slate and a closely watched central bank decision. The dollar is firmer, gold continues to climb, and bond yields are steady in a tight range. Leadership remains concentrated in technology and AI-linked supply chains, with notable rotation toward semiconductor equipment and memory producers across Asia and Europe. Market at a glance US: Equity futures are modestly higher, led by tech and chips, with traders focused on results from mega-cap names and policy guidance from the central bank. Europe: Benchmarks are softer amid uneven earnings updates; luxury and select consumer shares lag, while semiconductor suppliers outperform. Asia: Hong Kong and South Korea led gains on strength in hardware, semis, and supply-chain beneficiaries; Japan was mixed, China steady-to-better on policy support signals. FX: The dollar index is up, reflecting relative growth and rate differentials; the euro and yen are modestly weaker; commodity FX is mixed. Rates: US Treasury yields are little changed across the curve ahead of today’s decision; volatility is subdued and the curve is broadly stable. Commodities: Gold extends its advance as investors hedge policy and geopolitical risks; crude trades in a tight band, with OPEC+ dynamics and US supply holding prices range-bound; industrial metals are steady. Key drivers today Policy in focus: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Markets will parse the statement and press conference for clues on timing and pace of any eventual easing, balance-sheet runoff, and the assessment of growth and inflation risks. Traders are sensitive to any shift in the reaction function that could influence front-end rates and risk appetite. Earnings heavyweights: Mega-cap tech and AI bellwethers report today and this week. Beyond the headline prints, investors want clarity on cloud demand, AI infrastructure spending, capital intensity, and monetization timelines. Guidance and capex plans will likely matter more than backward-looking results. AI supply chain leadership: Robust order books at chip-equipment makers and strength in memory and storage continue to validate the capex cycle around AI infrastructure. This has supported outperformance in select European and Asian technology shares, even as US mega-cap valuations remain elevated. Cross-asset positioning: With equities near highs and volatility low, positioning feels extended in favored themes. Month-end and central bank communications could catalyze rebalancing across equities, duration, and FX, particularly if guidance diverges from current market pricing. Equities United States: Futures point to a firmer open for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Pre-market tone is constructive in semiconductors and hardware, while software and communication services are in focus given upcoming reports. Financials and defensives are mixed as yields tread water. Europe: The region trades lower with dispersion across sectors. Luxury and discretionary names are soft after cautious holiday updates, while semiconductor equipment and select industrial technology outperform on improving demand signals. Banks are broadly steady. Asia-Pacific: Hong Kong and South Korea outperformed on technology leadership and continued interest in AI-linked exporters. Taiwan supply-chain names were bid, while Japan saw a more balanced session with gains in chips offset by consolidation in cyclicals. Fixed income US Treasuries are flat-to-slightly softer, with the front end anchored into the policy decision and the long end holding recent ranges. Any hawkish inflection in guidance could nudge terminal-rate expectations higher and weigh on risk assets; dovish-leaning language would likely support duration and higher-beta credit. European sovereigns are mixed, with core yields marginally higher and peripherals stable. Supply dynamics and upcoming inflation prints remain key near-term catalysts. Currencies The dollar is modestly stronger versus G10 peers. The euro is softer on mixed data and cautious risk tone, while the yen remains sensitive to yield differentials and policy expectations. Emerging-market FX is mixed, with higher-beta currencies tracking equities and commodities. Commodities Gold advances as investors seek portfolio ballast amid policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Real yields and the dollar will remain the key near-term drivers. Oil is range-bound, balancing steady demand expectations against ample non-OPEC supply and OPEC+ discipline. Time spreads and inventory trends suggest a well-supplied but not oversupplied market. Industrial metals are steady, supported by infrastructure demand and policy support signals, offset by inventory normalization. The day ahead Policy: Federal Reserve rate decision and press conference. Markets will watch for commentary on inflation progress, labor-market cooling, and the threshold for considering rate cuts or balance-sheet adjustments. Earnings: A busy slate featuring mega-cap technology, alongside major industrials, telecom, and consumer names. Watch guidance on AI-related capex, margins, and cost discipline. Data: A light-to-moderate macro calendar in the US and Europe, with attention on growth, confidence, and labor indicators that can shape near-term rate expectations. Themes to monitor Guidance over beats: With valuations full in leadership groups, forward guidance on capex, AI monetization, and margins will likely drive stock reactions more than headline beats. Broadening leadership: Continued outperformance in global semiconductor equipment, memory, and storage suggests AI’s benefits are spreading across regions and sub-industries. Policy path and liquidity: The balance between disinflation progress and growth resilience will influence the timing and pace of any easing cycle, shaping cross-asset correlations and liquidity conditions. Earnings dispersion: Expect wider single-stock moves as results and guidance diverge, particularly in sectors tied to AI spend, consumer demand, and China exposure. Risk radar Policy miscommunication or a shift in reaction function that reprices the rate path Earnings or guidance disappointments from AI and cloud bellwethers Geopolitical flare-ups affecting energy and supply chains Liquidity pockets into month-end and during blackout periods This publication is for information purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Market conditions can change quickly; consider confirming levels with live data before making decisions. If you have questions or wish to discuss positioning and risk management, please contact your account representative.   Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts

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