Portfolio Strategy

February 4 – Daily Market Update

4 february 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily: Broad Markets Steady, Rotation Theme Persists Market overview US equity futures are mixed in early trade as investors balance resilient economic data with a busy stretch of corporate results. Large-cap benchmarks are little changed overall, with growth-oriented indexes lagging value and cyclical segments. Treasury yields are hovering near recent ranges as markets reassess the timing and pace of potential policy easing this year. Rate-sensitive sectors remain choppy while financials and industrials show relative stability. The US dollar is firmer against most major peers, reflecting cautious risk sentiment and interest-rate differentials. Commodity-linked currencies are uneven. Commodities are broadly supported. Crude is up for a second session on ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply headlines, while gold extends its rebound amid a mix of haven demand and currency moves. Themes in focus Rotation toward cash-generative, economically sensitive companies has continued. Staples, energy, and select materials have outperformed high-multiple growth shares at the margin, helped by solid nominal growth and rising capital discipline across cyclicals. Software and some richly valued technology pockets remain volatile as investors scrutinize monetization timelines and profit leverage around artificial intelligence spending. Hardware and infrastructure providers tied to AI demand are seeing more differentiation based on guidance and capacity plans. Healthcare is in the spotlight as competitive dynamics intensify across certain therapy categories, with pricing and market-share expectations being recalibrated. Dispersion within the group remains high. M&A chatter and strategic portfolio moves are picking up into earnings season, adding stock-specific swings without altering the broader macro tone. Rates, FX, and credit Front-end yields reflect a later start and shallower path for policy easing compared with earlier expectations, while longer maturities are anchored by stable inflation breakevens. The curve remains relatively flat. Credit markets are orderly. Investment-grade spreads are steady and high-yield risk appetite is selective, with quality continuing to command a premium. Primary issuance remains active when windows are open. Commodities Oil prices are supported by geopolitical risk and cautious supply expectations. Any confirmed changes in export flows or shipping routes could inject additional volatility. Precious metals are bid as investors seek diversification and as real yields consolidate. Flows into hedging and allocation strategies remain a driver alongside currency moves. Industrial metals are mixed, reflecting a tug-of-war between inventory normalization and uneven global manufactuing data. Earnings landscape The heart of reporting season is delivering wide dispersion. Companies beating on both revenue and margins are being rewarded, while cautious outlooks are drawing outsized reactions. Mega-cap technology, chipmakers tied to AI infrastructure, select consumer names, and large-cap healthcare feature prominently this week. Guidance around capital expenditure, pricing, and cost control remains the dominant catalyst for single-stock moves. Digital assets Major cryptocurrencies are softer overall, with leverage and liquidity conditions amplifying moves. Correlations with risk assets remain inconsistent day to day, but macro headlines and dollar strength continue to influence direction. What to watch next Corporate guidance: Commentary on AI-related spending, inventory management, and demand elasticity across consumer categories will shape sector leadership. Inflation and growth signals: Upcoming labor and services activity data, along with central bank remarks, will inform the path of rates and the durability of the current rotation. Positioning and liquidity: With volatility clustering around earnings and geopolitical headlines, intraday liquidity can vary; expect wider moves on stock-specific news. Portfolio considerations Maintain balance between quality growth and resilient value exposures; emphasize free cash flow, pricing power, and healthy balance sheets. In fixed income, a laddered approach can help navigate path uncertainty for policy rates, while maintaining attention to credit quality. Consider risk management tools where appropriate, as dispersion remains elevated and headline sensitivity can produce abrupt swings. This commentary is a general market update intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Markets are fluid and conditions may change without notice. Clients should assess their individual circumstances and consult a financial professional before making investment decisions. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. February 4 – Daily Market Update February 4, 2026 4 february 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily: Broad… Read More February 3 – Daily Market Update February 3, 2026 3 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Market snapshot (as… Read More February 2 – Daily Market Update February 2, 2026 2 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily: Volatility… Read More January 30 – Daily Market Update January 30, 2026 30 January 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily: Risk-off… Read More January 29 – Daily Market Update January 29, 2026 29 January 2026- Daily Market Updates Quick take Metals rally… Read More January 28 – Daily Market Update January 28, 2026 28 January 2026 Daily Market Updates Markets Daily: Global Risk… Read More January 27 – Daily Market Update January 27, 2026 27 january 2026 – Daily Market

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January 21 – Daily Market Update

21 january 2026 – Daily Market Updates Daily Markets Briefing Market Snapshot (as of 06:16 am EST; values may be delayed) S&P 500 Futures: 6842 (+0.18%) Stoxx Europe 600: 600.03 (-0.46%) US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.281% (down ~0.01) Nikkei 225: 52774.64 (-0.41%) Spot Gold: 4866.3 (+2.16%) Overview US equity futures are stabilizing after a sharp risk-off session, while Europe trades softer and Asia finished mixed. Government bond yields are easing at the margin as investors reassess growth and policy expectations, and safe-haven bids remain evident in precious metals. Weather-driven energy dynamics and a busy corporate earnings slate are in focus. Equities United States: Futures indicate a modest rebound following the largest S&P 500 pullback in several months. The tone remains headline-sensitive with investors weighing earnings updates, policy chatter from global forums, and the path for growth-sensitive sectors. Market breadth and factor rotations bear watching after a burst of volatility. Europe: The region’s benchmark is lower, led by consumer and health care laggards, while select luxury and industrial names outperform on company-specific updates. Energy and utilities see support from higher fuel price expectations into a colder weather pattern. Asia: Japanese stocks slipped as recent rate and currency volatility kept risk appetite in check, though losses were contained by a pullback in long-dated yields. Other major regional markets were mixed, with pockets of strength in technology and internet names. Rates and Credit US Treasuries: The 10-year yield is edging lower, reflecting a small bid for duration after yesterday’s equity selloff. The curve remains sensitive to incoming growth data, earnings guidance on capex and labor, and evolving central-bank rhetoric. Global sovereigns: Longer-maturity Japanese bonds recovered some ground after a volatile stretch, helping to soothe broader rate jitters. European core yields are steady to slightly lower, with peripheral spreads broadly contained. Credit: Investment-grade and high-yield spreads widened modestly with the equity drawdown but remain within recent ranges. Primary issuance is active into earnings season, with investors selective on leverage and interest coverage profiles. FX and Commodities Gold: The metal extends gains on haven demand and lower real-yield impulses. Flows into precious metals remain supported by diversification and geopolitical hedging. Energy: Natural gas prices are elevated as forecasts point to an intense cold spell across key North American demand and production hubs. Winter reliability and storage draws are back in focus for utilities and upstream names. Crude is firmer but range-bound as supply discipline and demand seasonality offset growth and policy uncertainties. FX: The dollar is mixed against majors, with rate differentials and risk sentiment driving intraday swings. Yen and select European currencies are stable after the latest moves in global bonds. Corporate Highlights Airlines: A leading US carrier posted better-than-expected quarterly results, lifting the group on improving revenue trends and disciplined capacity plans. Investors are watching commentary on business travel and fuel hedging into late winter. Media and Streaming: A major streaming platform is under pressure premarket after issuing a cautious outlook and pausing buybacks amid higher content and integration spending. Markets are parsing visibility on subscriber growth, pricing, and cash-flow timing. Consumer Staples: A large packaged-food company is weaker after a significant shareholder registered stock for potential sale, reviving focus on portfolio mix, pricing power, and margins. Health Care, Financials, Insurance: Several bellwethers report before the US open. Watch loan growth and deposit costs for financials, medical device and pharma pipelines in health care, and catastrophe loss trends for insurers. Europe: A diagnostics firm rallied on reports of strategic review considerations, while a UK luxury brand gained after signs of early progress in a turnaround plan. Key Drivers to Watch Earnings season: Guidance on 2026 capex, AI-related spend, operating leverage, and margin durability is likely to set the tone for sector rotations. Macro and policy: Remarks from global policy gatherings, central-bank speakers, and upcoming data on growth and inflation will shape rate expectations and the risk premium across assets. Weather and infrastructure: The impending cold snap may ripple through energy markets, midstream logistics, and short-term industrial output. Market structure: Elevated options activity and systematic flows can amplify intraday volatility; monitor positioning, skew, and realized vs. implied vol. Takeaways for Investors Quality bias and liquidity discipline remain important as markets navigate cross-currents from policy headlines, earnings dispersion, and winter energy dynamics. Balance duration and equity risk: modest duration exposure can buffer equity drawdowns if growth scares resurface, while selective cyclical exposure can benefit from resilient demand pockets. Focus on cash flow visibility: companies demonstrating pricing power, cost control, and clear capital-return frameworks may be rewarded as the bar for guidance rises. Calendar (near term) US corporate earnings: Health care, financials, industrials, and tech updates throughout the week. Global data: Preliminary manufacturing and services readings, housing indicators, and weekly labor prints in the US. Policy watch: Central-bank commentary and fiscal headlines from global forums. Disclosure This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or strategy. Market data are subject to change and may be delayed. Consider your objectives and risk tolerance before making investment decisions. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high

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Notional Value vs Market Value

Leave a Comment / Exchange Traded Derivatives, Derivatives Basics / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Notional Value vs Market Value Table of Contents What Is Notional Value in Financial Markets? How Does Market Value Differ from Notional Value? Why Is the Distinction Critical for Leveraged Trading? How Are Notional and Market Values Calculated in Derivatives? * Calculating Value in Futures Contracts * Understanding Options Valuations When Should Investors Focus on Notional Over Market Value? Conclusion What Is Notional Value in Financial Markets? In the realm of institutional and professional trading, “price” is rarely a singular concept. Notional value (often referred to as notional amount or nominal value) represents the total underlying value of a financial asset that a contract controls. It is a theoretical value used primarily to calculate payments, interest rates, and leverage ratios, rather than the immediate cash amount required to enter a trade. For investors utilizing global futures and options, notional value is the metric that defines the true scale of market exposure. For instance, when you trade a commodities futures contract, the initial margin you deposit might be small, but the notional value reflects the total worth of the commodities (e.g., 1,000 barrels of oil) controlled by that contract. Understanding this figure is essential for assessing the true depth of a portfolio’s exposure to market volatility. How Does Market Value Differ from Notional Value? While notional value represents the total assets controlled, market value is the actual current price at which a security, derivative, or portfolio can be bought or sold in the open market. It is the figure most investors see on their daily statements—the “mark-to-market” price that fluctuates second-by-second based on supply, demand, and liquidity. For a standard equity investor buying global stocks, the notional value and market value are typically identical; if you buy $10,000 worth of Apple stock, both values are $10,000. However, the divergence appears in derivatives. In a leveraged position, the market value usually refers to the cost of the contract itself (the premium or the margin equity), which is often a fraction of the notional value. This distinction is vital for capital efficiency, as it dictates how much capital is actually tied up versus how much risk is being taken. Why Is the Distinction Critical for Leveraged Trading? The gap between notional and market value is the essence of leverage. Professional traders use this gap to amplify returns, but it effectively amplifies risk as well. If an investor focuses solely on the market value (the cash utilized), they may underestimate the magnitude of a potential loss. Risk management protocols at top-tier brokerage firms often stress-test portfolios based on notional value. For example, a movement of 1% in the underlying asset price affects the investor based on the notional value, not the cash invested. Investors trading CFDs and Spot FX must remain acutely aware that while their deposited margin (market value of equity) might be low, their notional exposure to currency fluctuations remains at the full contract size. Optimize Your Capital Efficiency Access global markets with competitive leverage and institutional-grade support. Start Trading Today How Are Notional and Market Values Calculated in Derivatives? The calculation methods vary depending on the instrument, but the principle remains: one measures exposure, the other measures cost. Calculating Value in Futures Contracts In futures trading, the notional value is calculated by multiplying the contract size by the current price of the underlying asset. Formula: Notional Value = Contract Size × Current Underlying Price Example: If the S&P 500 futures contract has a multiplier of $50 and the index is at 4,000, the notional value is $200,000. The market value of the position to the trader, however, is initially zero (at par) or represented by the margin requirement, adjusting daily as the contract gains or loses value. Understanding Options Valuations Options introduce a layer of complexity. Notional Value: Typically the Strike Price × Number of Shares × Number of Contracts. This represents the value of the stock if the option were exercised. Market Value: This is the premium paid to buy the option. For investors using hedging strategies with options, distinguishing these values is paramount. A put option might cost only $500 (market value), but it could be hedging a portfolio with a notional value of $50,000. When Should Investors Focus on Notional Over Market Value? Sophisticated investors and asset managers prioritize notional value in specific scenarios: Asset Allocation: When determining if a portfolio is overweight in a specific sector (e.g., Technology or Energy), one should look at the notional exposure of derivatives, not just the premium paid. Hedge Ratios: To effectively hedge a physical stock portfolio using DGCX Futures or other derivatives, the notional value of the hedge must match the market value of the physical assets. Regulatory Compliance: Institutional clients and family offices operating under strict mandates often have caps on gross notional exposure to limit systemic risk. Conversely, market value is the primary focus for liquidity management, ensuring there is enough cash on hand to meet margin calls or fund new opportunities in structured notes and yield-enhancing products. Professional Portfolio Management Get expert guidance on managing exposure and risk Contact Us Conclusion Mastering the dynamics between notional value and market value is a hallmark of an advanced investor. While market value dictates the immediate financial health of an account, notional value reveals the true footprint of your investment strategy in the global marketplace. Whether you are trading deliverable equities or navigating complex derivatives, keeping a vigilant eye on both metrics ensures a balanced approach to risk and reward. At PhillipCapital DIFC, we provide the robust platforms and analytical tools necessary to monitor these values in real-time, empowering you to make data-driven decisions across asset classes. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) 1. Why is the notional value usually so much higher than the market value? This significant difference exists primarily due to leverage. In derivatives trading (like futures or CFDs), you are only required to deposit a fraction of the total trade size (the margin) to open a position. While the market value reflects this smaller cash outlay or

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February 4 – Daily Market Update

January 21 – Daily Market Update

Notional Value vs Market Value

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