Weekly Global Market News – February -Week 1

Week Ahead Playbook (Week of 3–9 February 2026)

What matters this week

Japan’s snap election: A short, high-stakes campaign culminates on Sunday. Markets are weighing whether a renewed mandate for the ruling LDP under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi could usher in looser fiscal policy and keep upward pressure on long-dated JGB yields.
Thailand votes: A test of stability for a slowing economy contending with trade frictions, weather-related disruption and a tense regional backdrop. The baht and local equities will be sensitive to coalition arithmetic and policy signals.
Rates on hold in Europe? The ECB and BoE meet. Consensus looks for no change, with the ECB steady and the BoE waiting for inflation to settle sustainably at target before cutting. Guidance and forecasts will matter as much as the decisions.
Macro pulse check: Global PMIs and the US January jobs report headline a busy data slate that will shape views on growth resilience and the pace of disinflation.
Earnings heavyweights: Big Tech, energy majors, pharma and consumer bellwethers report. AI investment, cloud and ad trends, obesity drugs, buybacks and capex discipline are the key themes.
Geopolitics and industry: The Singapore Airshow opens with defense and aerospace in focus. Later in the week, the Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina provide a tourism and media side-note to markets.

Central bank watch

European Central Bank (Thu): Broadly expected to leave rates unchanged (market narrative centers on a steady deposit rate profile early in 2026). Watch:

Inflation trajectory versus the ECB’s comfort with near-term downside surprises.
Updated language on growth, wage dynamics and the path from “restrictive for longer” to eventual easing.
Any hints on balance-sheet operations and reinvestments.

Bank of England (Thu): The MPC is widely expected to hold while it waits for inflation to return to 2% in the spring. Watch:

Vote split and tone of forward guidance.
Fresh views on trend productivity, following signs of a potential UK productivity pickup.
How the BoE balances service inflation stickiness against easing goods disinflation.

At the ballot box

Japan (Sun): The shortest general election campaign in decades has amplified market volatility. Key swing factor: households squeezed by higher prices and rates. Market implications:

Rates: Long JGBs remain vulnerable to renewed fiscal expansion signals; curve steepening risk persists.
FX: JPY could react to any post-vote policy clarity and risk sentiment.
Equities: Domestic cyclicals, banks and construction may move on fiscal tone; defensives on cost-of-living narratives.

Thailand (Sun): A fragmented landscape and minority rule have kept uncertainty elevated. Market implications:

THB and local bonds will respond to fiscal priorities, investment incentives and external trade positioning.
Sectors to watch: banks (credit growth/margins), tourism/leisure (policy support), exporters (tariff and FX sensitivity).

Macro data to watch

Global PMIs (Mon/Wed/Thu): Manufacturing and services readings across the US, euro area, UK, Japan, China and others will refine the soft-landing debate and pricing power trends.
Euro area flash HICP (Wed): A crucial input for the ECB’s inflation narrative; components (core, services) will matter for timing of any future pivot.
UK housing (Mon/Fri): Nationwide and Halifax house price updates provide a read on mortgage affordability and consumer confidence.
US labor market (Fri): January nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and wage growth will steer expectations for the Fed’s path and real yields.
Japan: Summary of opinions (Mon) from the latest policy meeting may offer clues on the normalization roadmap.

Earnings spotlight

Tech and internet:

Alphabet (Wed): Cloud margins, advertising momentum and AI monetization road map.
Amazon (Thu): Retail margins, AWS growth and AI infrastructure spend; headcount and cost discipline under the microscope.
AMD (Tue), Qualcomm (Wed), Arm (Wed): AI PC/server silicon demand, guidance quality, and supply chain visibility.
Snap (Wed), Uber (Wed): Ad mix and engagement (Snap); profitability cadence and mobility/delivery trends (Uber).

Pharma/biotech:

Pfizer (Tue), Merck (Tue), Eli Lilly (Wed), Novo Nordisk (Wed), AbbVie (Wed): GLP-1 demand and capacity, pricing, pipeline milestones and 2026 top-line bridges.

Energy and industrials:

Shell (Thu), ConocoPhillips (Thu), Phillips 66 (Wed): Capital return frameworks versus capex; refining margins; LNG updates.
Maersk (Thu), Anglo American (Thu), ArcelorMittal (Thu), VINCI (Thu): Freight rates and deglobalization effects; mining guidance; infra backlogs and pricing.

Consumer and payments:

PepsiCo (Tue), Mondelez (Tue), Chipotle (Tue), O’Reilly (Thu): Volume versus pricing, elasticity and input costs.
PayPal (Tue): Take rate trends, cost saves, product roadmap.

Autos and Japan Inc:

Toyota (Fri), Sony (Thu), Nintendo (Tue), Panasonic (Wed), Mitsubishi Electric (Tue), Suzuki (Thu), KDDI (Fri): FX sensitivities, EV pipelines, gaming cycle, image sensors, and capital allocation.

Sectors and themes

AI and semis: Watch capex guidance across hyperscalers and chipmakers; supply constraints versus demand exuberance.
Healthcare: Obesity-drug capacity, payer dynamics and long-term margin mix.
Energy: Discipline remains the mantra; geopolitics and OPEC compliance frame near-term price action.
Banks: UK and eurozone banks may react to rate path guidance and loan growth signals; capital returns remain a support.
Travel and aerospace: Singapore Airshow headlines drones, fighters and commercial backlogs; Olympics buzz adds a modest lift to European travel/leisure sentiment.

Day-by-day calendar (selected)

Monday, 2 Feb

- Data: Global manufacturing PMIs; UK Nationwide house prices; Japan BoJ summary of opinions.
- Earnings: Central Japan Railway; East/West Japan Railway; TDK; Disney; Tyson Foods; Julius Baer; IDEXX; Revvity.
- Corporate: AstraZeneca shares begin trading on the NYSE.

Tuesday, 3 Feb

Policy/Data: Australia rate decision; Euro area Bank Lending Survey; US JOLTS openings.
Earnings: AMD, Alphabet (see Wed), PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Merck, Amgen, Mondelez, Chipotle, Electronic Arts, Jacobs, Willis Towers Watson, Prudential Financial, LATAM Airlines, Nintendo, Mitsubishi Electric, Teradyne, Skyworks, Take-Two, Publicis, ADM, Enphase, Ametek, Emerson, Hubbell, Grainger, Ball Corp, Clorox, Kinnevik, LBG Media, Match, Prudential Financial, West Japan Railway.

Wednesday, 4 Feb

Events: FT energy policy summit (Brussels/online). Singapore Airshow continues.
Data: Global services PMIs; Euro area flash HICP; UK international reserves.
Earnings: Alphabet, Arm, GSK, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, UBS, Santander, Handelsbanken, Equinor, Phillips 66, Johnson Controls, MediaTek, Panasonic, Rohm, Infineon, Boston Scientific, McKesson, Qualcomm, Uber, Snap, T Rowe Price, Watches of Switzerland, SSE.

Thursday, 5 Feb

Policy: ECB rate decision; BoE rate decision; Germany factory orders.
Earnings: Amazon, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Maersk, Anglo American, ArcelorMittal, BNP Paribas, BBVA, KKR, MetLife, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cigna, Estee Lauder, News Corp, Reddit, Sony, NTT, Nikon, Suzuki, Kao, Vodafone (trading), BT (trading), O’Reilly, VINCI, VeriSign, NOV, Nippon Steel, KKR, Equity Residential, Compass (trading), Gen Digital, Steris.

Friday, 6 Feb

Data: US nonfarm payrolls; UK Halifax house prices; UK public service productivity (Q3 2025).
Earnings: Toyota, Ørsted, Societe Generale, Skanska, Philip Morris, Centene, Unum, KDDI.

Weekend

Elections: Japan and Thailand (Sunday).
Sports: Super Bowl Sunday; Six Nations opening fixtures. Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Milan-Cortina (Friday).

What could move markets most

A surprisingly hawkish (or dovish) twist from the ECB/BoE.
US payrolls/wage growth diverging meaningfully from trend.
A decisive policy mandate emerging from Japan’s election that shifts fiscal/BoJ normalization expectations.
Thailand’s vote producing a clear or muddled outcome for governance and reform.
Outlier guidance from mega-cap tech (AI capex/monetization) or from energy majors (capital returns).

House view for clients (not investment advice)

Keep duration nimble around ECB/BoE; consider curve strategies over outright direction where policy is data-dependent.
In equities, balance AI beneficiaries with quality cash generative names; watch for earnings revision breadth.
For FX, respect event risk in JPY/THB; EUR/GBP ranges likely until guidance breaks new ground.
Consider travel/aerospace and select European cyclicals as event-linked trading themes, but be disciplined on catalysts and stops.

Important information

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