Weekly Global Market News – Dec 15

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Weekly Global Market Update / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Weekly Global Market News – Dec 15 Week Ahead: Rates, inflation and jobs take center stage Overview A packed macro week will see three major central banks set policy, fresh inflation prints across multiple regions and a run of employment data. Markets will be parsing signals on how far the global easing cycle has to run in Europe and the UK, and whether Japan edges further away from ultra‑loose policy. Corporate news flow is busy too, with bellwether results in tech, logistics, consumer and travel. Top themes to watch 1) Central banks: BoE, ECB, BoJ Bank of England (Thu): A 25bp trim to 3.75% is widely expected after October GDP contracted 0.1%. The statement, vote split and guidance will be the market movers. Key questions: is this the last cut for a while, and how concerned is the MPC about sticky services inflation? Watch GBP front‑end gilts and the belly of the curve; a dovish vote split and soft CPI could bull‑steepen gilts. A more hawkish tone (limited room for further cuts) would support GBP. European Central Bank (Thu): Broadly expected to hold. Officials have recently framed inflation risks as more balanced. November HICP (Wed) is seen a touch higher at around 2.2% y/y, which should reinforce a steady hand. Market focus: staff assessment of growth/inflation balance, any hints on the pace of balance‑sheet runoff in 2026, and whether the door stays open to cuts next year. Watch EUR rates and periphery spreads. Bank of Japan (Fri): Decision is finely balanced, with odds tilted slightly toward another step away from negative/near‑zero rates following recent commentary from Governor Ueda. A move would have global spillovers: a firmer JPY, upward pressure on global yields, and potential headwinds for carry trades. If the BoJ stands pat, expect relief in carry and a softer yen near term. Also watch Friday’s Japan CPI. 2) Inflation and employment data UK (Wed): CPI/PPI for November. Services inflation and core momentum matter most for MPC reaction. Friday brings UK retail sales, public finances and the latest banking sector regulatory capital snapshot. Eurozone (Wed): Final HICP for November alongside Monday’s October industrial production. Any upside surprise in core would complicate the ECB’s hold‑for‑now stance. US (Tue/Thu/Fri): November employment report arrives Tuesday (re‑scheduled), followed by Thursday’s real earnings and CPI (revised release), plus Friday’s University of Michigan sentiment. Given recent shutdown delays, revisions could carry extra weight for the Fed’s growth/inflation mix. Canada (Mon): November CPI – important for the BoC’s early‑2026 path. Japan (Mon/Fri): Tankan survey (Mon) will color growth and capex expectations; CPI (Fri) anchors BoJ decision risk. Australia (Thu): Labor force data could tweak RBA expectations at the margin. Mexico and Norway (Thu): Policy decisions that feed into EM FX and Nordic rates. 3) Politics and policy risks to headline tape Berlin talks on Ukraine (week): Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz hosts UK PM Sir Keir Starmer, France’s President Emmanuel Macron and potentially a US delegation to explore peace options. Any signals on funding and security guarantees could briefly swing EU risk sentiment. UK domestic calendar: The Prime Minister faces a Liaison Committee grilling Monday on delivery against the government’s “plan for change.” The British Medical Association will report Monday on doctors’ industrial action; a five‑day strike in England from Wednesday is possible. Health Secretary Wes Streeting appears before MPs on Wednesday. EU Council (Thu–Fri): Leaders meet in Brussels; watch for budget, defense and enlargement headlines. Trade and global forums: WTO General Council (Tue); Mercosur Summit (Sat), with the EU–Mercosur deal back in view. Earnings and corporate highlights Tuesday: Hollywood Bowl (FY), IG Group (trading update), SThree (FY trading update) Wednesday: General Mills (Q2), IntegraFin (FY), Lennar (Q4), Micron Technology (Q1), Serco (pre‑close) Thursday: Accenture (Q1), CarMax (Q3), Cintas (Q2), Currys (HY), Darden Restaurants (Q2), FedEx (Q2), Nike (Q2). Also noteworthy: court sanction expected for Alphawave IP’s acquisition by Qualcomm. Friday: Carnival (Q4), ConAgra Brands (Q2), Lamb Weston (Q2), PayChex (Q2), WHSmith (FY) – investors will look for clarity after the company flagged more time was needed to finalize accounts. Trading playbook by asset class • Rates UK: A 25bp cut is largely priced. Dovish risks: softer CPI and a wide pro‑cut majority could flatten the front end. Hawkish risk: “pause after this cut” language re‑steepens. Eurozone: Hold + balanced inflation messaging keeps Bunds range‑bound; periphery sensitive to any balance‑sheet hints. Japan: A hike/less‑accommodative tilt lifts JGB yields and can ripple into USTs/Bunds. No change likely bull‑flattens JGBs. • FX GBP: Direction tied to MPC tone and CPI. Dovish cut could push EUR/GBP higher; hawkish hold‑open may support cable. EUR: Steady ECB and marginally firmer HICP favor consolidation; EUR sensitive to periphery spreads and global risk tone. JPY: Asymmetric risk around BoJ – policy tightening or guidance upgrade supports yen broadly; no change keeps JPY soft but vulnerable into year‑end rebalancing. USD: Jobs/CPI revisions and Fed‑speak cadence drive DXY. Soft data plus firm risk appetite tends to weigh on USD; risk‑off or stronger labor data supports it. • Equities Europe/UK: Rate stability plus cooling inflation is constructive for duration‑sensitive sectors (quality growth, staples), while banks track curve moves. UK domestics react to retail sales and consumer sentiment; BoE guidance key for housebuilders. US: Micron, FedEx and Nike offer signals on semis cycle, global trade/parcel volumes, and consumer demand mix into 2026. Japan: Stronger JPY on BoJ tightening is a headwind to exporters but can boost domestic defensives. • Credit Steady ECB and a well‑telegraphed BoE cut are supportive for spreads; watch periphery and HY for sensitivity to growth downgrades. Corporate results (FedEx/Nike) will guide consumer and logistics credit tone. • Commodities Macro‑driven week: global PMIs and policy outcomes likely dominate energy/metals via growth expectations; watch USD path for gold. The week at a glance (selected) MONDAY OECD: G20 GDP growth report Canada: November CPI EU: October industrial production Japan: December Tankan business survey UK: Rightmove House Price Index TUESDAY Global: S&P Global flash PMIs (Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US) UK: December labor market report; UK

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Weekly Global Market News – Dec 07

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Weekly Global market Updates Dec 07 Central Banks Take Centre Stage The upcoming week is dominated by monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday stands out as the critical macro event. Market expectations overwhelmingly lean toward another rate reduction, with futures implying a probability well above the 80% mark. Softer private payroll indicators released earlier have reinforced the argument for additional easing, especially as policymakers debate whether persistent inflation or a clearly cooling labour market should command the greater focus.The tone of the voting members — how many push back, and the updated multi-year interest rate projections — will set the narrative for global risk sentiment into year-end.Elsewhere, senior figures from the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and European Central Bank are expected to deliver forward-looking commentary during major industry and policy gatherings. Their guidance on growth trajectories, financial stability and regulatory shifts will influence cross-asset moves through the week. UK Policy and Fiscal Oversight in Spotlight In the UK, scrutiny of recent monetary and fiscal actions intensifies. Members of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee will face questions from Parliament regarding their most recent split vote — a reflection of the narrow consensus around policy direction. Another policy meeting is due mid-December, where the possibility of a cut remains open. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will also defend last month’s fiscal package before the Treasury Committee. Markets continue to reassess the long-term implications for borrowing costs, productivity measures and the broader investment environment. Major Corporate Events and Listings Trading begins this week with the long-awaited stock market debut of The Magnum Ice Cream Company, newly separated from Unilever. The business enters the market as the dominant global player in its segment, supported by €8bn in annual revenue. Analysts expect the standalone operation to unlock value, though unresolved governance tensions with the founders of one of its prominent brands linger in the background. Key corporate earnings in the US and Europe will provide fresh insight into holiday-season demand, supply-chain dynamics, and capital-allocation strategies across consumer, technology and industrial sectors. Global Economic Data to Watch A wide range of macro releases will guide investor sentiment: Japan updates third-quarter GDP figures, offering clarity on the momentum of Asia’s second-largest economy. Germany publishes industrial output data and inflation readings, essential for assessing the health of Europe’s manufacturing engine. China releases consumer and producer inflation numbers, crucial indicators of domestic demand and deflationary pressure trends. UK GDP data for October will signal whether the economy is stabilising after months of subdued activity. Beyond these, the US JOLTS job openings report and leading indicators will shape expectations for labour demand and recession risk. Regulation, Technology and Global Events Australia rolls out a major regulatory shift this week, enforcing its new rule barring individuals below age 16 from registering on major social media platforms. This measure follows a broader global conversation on youth safety and online behaviour. Other global developments include the start of the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi, the annual Nobel Prize events in Stockholm, protests and labour actions in Europe, and major cultural ceremonies across Asia and Latin America. Calendar Highlights — Economic & Corporate MONDAY Magnum Ice Cream Company begins trading in Amsterdam, London, and New York BIS Quarterly Review Germany: October production data Japan: revised Q3 GDP UK: KPMG/REC Jobs Report TUESDAY Bank of England MPC members testify before Treasury Committee Anglo American and Teck Resources shareholder meetings on proposed merger UK retail sales insights (BRC) US JOLTS and leading index Earnings: Ashtead, AutoZone, Campbell’s, BAT update, GameStop, and more WEDNESDAY Interest rate decisions: Brazil, Canada China CPI & PPI Norway Q3 GDP US Federal Reserve policy announcement Earnings: Adobe, Oracle, TUI, Berkeley and others THURSDAY IEA and Opec oil market reports Australia labour force data Germany economic outlook (Ifo) Turkey interest rate decision US state-level employment data Earnings: Lululemon, Nordson, RWS, LPP FRIDAY Chicago Fed President speaks on economic outlook Germany inflation update UK GDP estimate and inflation attitudes survey Earnings: Broadcom, Costco, Taylor Maritime Global Events & Observances MONDAY UN Environment Assembly opens in Nairobi Commemoration of John Lennon’s anniversary in New York TUESDAY Southeast Asian Games begin in Thailand Turner Prize announced in the UK WEDNESDAY Human Rights Day Australia’s social media age rule enforced Nobel Prize award ceremony THURSDAY Nationwide strike in Portugal Bank of England Governor appears before Covid-19 inquiry FRIDAY–SUNDAY EU Ecofin meeting in Brussels Celebrations of Our Lady of Guadalupe in Mexico Jane Austen 250th anniversary events in the UK Malta Republic Day Hanukkah begins Chile presidential election run-off Global markets enter a decisive week shaped by monetary policy signalling, inflation readings, and major political and regulatory developments. The interplay between softening economic indicators and central bank responses will continue to steer equity, fixed-income and currency markets into year-end. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Weekly Global Market

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Weekly Global Market News – Nov 24

Leave a Comment / Uncategorized, Weekly Global Market Update / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Weekly Global market Updates Nov 24 Week Ahead Playbook: Budgets, Beige Book and Black Friday Good morning and welcome to your trading week. The coming days blend policy theatre, thin holiday liquidity and a final flurry of data before year-end positioning takes hold. Three themes to watch: UK fiscal reset in the spotlight The UK Chancellor will deliver her Autumn fiscal statement on Wednesday alongside updated projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Focus for markets: Credibility of the medium-term path to balance the current budget by 2029–30 without higher basic income tax rates. Any structural reforms to lift business investment: capex incentives, R&D treatment, planning and infrastructure delivery, and changes to capital allowances. Gilt supply implications and Debt Management Office remit updates; sensitivity of the 5–10 year sector and real yields. Household income and consumption: thresholds, allowances and benefit uprating. Market takeaways: A convincing pro-investment framework would be sterling- and equity-supportive and could compress UK term premia. A piecemeal package that leans on future restraint risks steeper curves and pressure on domestic cyclicals. 2) US holiday week: quiet tape, loud signals US markets are shut Thursday for Thanksgiving and typically operate shortened hours on Friday. Expect subdued volumes and intermittent liquidity through the week. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (Wed) arrives as investors debate how long restrictive policy must stay in place. Read-throughs on wage momentum, pricing power and credit conditions will steer front-end expectations. Consumer lens: Conference Board confidence (Tue) and real-time read-across from Black Friday/Cyber Monday. Watch for discounting intensity and inventory commentary from retailers. Political backdrop: Media reports suggest the White House is pushing to accelerate talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine ahead of the holiday. Any credible movement would reverberate through energy, European risk and defense names. This remains highly uncertain. 2) US holiday week: quiet tape, loud signals US markets are shut Thursday for Thanksgiving and typically operate shortened hours on Friday. Expect subdued volumes and intermittent liquidity through the week. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (Wed) arrives as investors debate how long restrictive policy must stay in place. Read-throughs on wage momentum, pricing power and credit conditions will steer front-end expectations. Consumer lens: Conference Board confidence (Tue) and real-time read-across from Black Friday/Cyber Monday. Watch for discounting intensity and inventory commentary from retailers. Political backdrop: Media reports suggest the White House is pushing to accelerate talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine ahead of the holiday. Any credible movement would reverberate through energy, European risk and defense names. This remains highly uncertain. 3) Inflation checkpoints in Europe; Asia in focus Germany prints preliminary November CPI/HICP (Fri), with France CPI/PPI the same day. A downside surprise would support the case for earlier ECB easing in 2026, while stickiness in services would argue for patience. Eurozone sentiment: GfK consumer climate (Thu) and the ECB’s consumer expectations survey (Fri). Japan’s markets are closed Monday for Labor Thanksgiving Day; BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi speaks Thursday. Any nuance on the path for yield-curve control and negative rates exit remains JPY-relevant. China’s industrial profits (Thu) will be parsed for margins and pricing trends across upstream sectors. Equities: earnings and retail watch Retail and hardware dominate a lighter earnings slate: Big-box and electronics: Best Buy, Dell Technologies, HP. Software and semis: Autodesk, Analog Devices, NetApp. Travel and leisure: easyJet. UK consumer bellwethers: Kingfisher, Pets at Home, Halfords, AO World. Industrials: Deere & Co (capex and farm cycle read-through). China tech: Alibaba. What to listen for: Holiday promotions, traffic versus conversion, and margins under discounting pressure. PC/server cycle timing and AI-related spend mix. Inventory normalization and working capital as rates stay restrictive. UK discretionary exposure to the domestic budget measures. Fixed income Gilts are most sensitive midweek. Watch 2s/10s re-steepening risk if fiscal math leans on back-loaded consolidation. USTs typically experience holiday-week technicals: thin depth can amplify moves around Beige Book headlines. Curve shape remains a function of growth resilience versus the timing of 2026 cuts. Bunds take their cue from German CPI on Friday; front-end pricing will swing with services inflation. FX GBP: Budget credibility is key. Pro-growth supply-side signals would support GBP on the crosses; disappointment risks drift lower in quiet conditions. EUR: Sensitive to German/French CPI and ECB minutes. Signs of softer core inflation bolster a gradualist easing narrative for 2026. JPY: Holiday-thinned liquidity early week; Noguchi’s remarks could nudge rate-differential expectations. Keep an eye on global risk tone and UST yields. USD: Seasonal liquidity plus retail data pulse; range-bound bias with a data-lite backdrop. Commodities Crude: OPEC+ convenes at the end of the week/into the weekend. Any extension or deepening of supply management will set the tone for December. A geopolitical breakthrough in eastern Europe (uncertain) would point to lower risk premia. Metals: Sensitive to China industrial profits and any hints of policy follow-through on infrastructure. What matters for portfolios Expect air pockets: Holiday-thin markets can exaggerate moves. Consider tighter stops and smaller position sizes. Event sequencing favors patience: Budget (Wed) and Beige Book (Wed) land into low-liquidity conditions; volatility could cluster late Wednesday into Friday’s European inflation prints. Barbell positioning still makes sense: Quality balance sheets and cash generative tech on one end; selective cyclicals levered to any UK pro-investment pivot on the other. The calendar (selected) Monday Japan: Labor Thanksgiving Day (markets closed) ECB President Lagarde keynote in Bratislava (AI and education) UK: CBI annual conference Singapore: October CPI Company results: Zoom, Agilent, Keysight, Prosus, Julius Baer Tuesday Germany: Q3 GDP estimate France: INSEE consumer confidence US: Conference Board consumer confidence Company results: Alibaba, Best Buy, Dell, HP, Analog Devices, Autodesk, NetApp, easyJet, Compass Group, Kingfisher, AO World, Cranswick, Beazley (update), JM Smucker Wednesday US: Federal Reserve Beige Book Australia: October CPI Japan: Services PPI Germany: Labour market report Company results: Deere & Co, Pets at Home, Safestore, Impax AM, Speedy Hire Thursday US: Thanksgiving (markets closed; early close Friday) ECB: Minutes of the latest policy meeting Germany: GfK consumer climate China: Industrial profits BoE MPC member Megan Greene speaks;

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