Nov 24 - Daily Market Updates
Market snapshot (as of 06:27 a.m. ET; levels may have changed)
- S&P 500 futures: 6,629.5 (+0.14%)
- Nasdaq 100 futures: 24,390.5 (+0.35%)
- S. 10-year Treasury yield: 4.048% (-1.5 bps)
- Dollar Spot Index: 1,226.17 (-0.02%)
- Bitcoin: 86,004 (-2.24%)
Top things to know today
- Crypto under pressure: After a brief weekend bounce, Bitcoin resumed its slide, slipping back below 86,000 as traders brace for continued outflows and tighter risk management into year-end. Tech stocks, however, are pacing early gains in U.S. futures.
- China AI app momentum: Alibaba’s revamped Qwen app reportedly drew more than 10 million downloads in the first week after relaunch, supporting its longer-term push to build a mass-market AI assistant. Shares advanced in Hong Kong trading.
- Europe’s defense trade cools: European defense names retreated on signs of movement in talks seeking Kyiv’s backing for a U.S.-supported peace path, while Ukraine dollar bonds rallied and select Eastern European currencies firmed.
- Mega-miner recalibration: BHP has stepped back from another tilt at Anglo American, removing a potential obstacle to Anglo’s planned combination with Teck Resources’ steelmaking coal assets in Canada.
- Retail leadership change: Kohl’s is expected to appoint Michael Bender as permanent CEO as soon as today, according to reports, ahead of Tuesday’s earnings and after a turbulent leadership stretch.
Deep dive: Crypto’s latest gut check
The crypto market’s hallmark whipsaws are back, but this episode stands out for how quickly positioning has flipped. A multi-week downdraft has erased roughly half a trillion dollars from Bitcoin’s market value from the peak, with altcoins faring worse. Unlike prior crashes driven by systemic failures, today’s stress reflects a broader, more institutional investor base.
Key dynamics:
- ETF flows matter: New spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen sizable redemptions this month, introducing a daily liquidity channel that didn’t exist in past cycles. When momentum falters, those flows can amplify moves.
- Corporate treasuries reconsider: Token-holding vehicles and crypto-treasury strategies are facing tougher scrutiny as investors question the pure-hold model in a higher-rate, higher-volatility environment.
- Institutional rebalancing: Professional investors tend to trim winners and control risk into drawdowns, which can pressure prices as volatility spikes.
- Sentiment reset: A popular “fear and greed” gauge for digital assets fell into deep “extreme fear” territory late last week (low teens on a 0–100 scale), underscoring the capitulation tone.
What to watch next:
- ETF net flows and borrowing rates across major venues
- Stablecoin market cap trends as a proxy for on-chain liquidity
- Funding rates and basis for signs of short-term positioning extremes
- Cross-market risk appetite in tech and high beta equities
On the move
- Baidu rose premarket after a major broker upgraded the stock to overweight, citing improving prospects in cloud and AI services.
- Alphabet extended last week’s rally as investors price in enthusiasm around the latest Gemini AI releases.
- Bayer jumped after announcing positive late-stage results for an experimental stroke-prevention therapy.
- Ubisoft surged after finalizing an investment transaction with Tencent tied to Vantage Studios, the new home for several flagship gaming franchises.
The week ahead
United States
- Data catch-up: September retail sales and durable goods orders are due, alongside the Fed’s Beige Book for a read on regional conditions.
- Thanksgiving: U.S. markets closed Thursday; expect lighter liquidity around the holiday.
- Earnings highlights: Alibaba, Dell Technologies, Workday, HP, Best Buy, Kohl’s, Dick’s Sporting Goods (Tue); Deere (Wed).
Europe/UK
- UK Autumn Budget (Wed): Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents the fiscal plan amid debate over tax measures and growth priorities.
- ECB: Financial Stability Review (Wed); minutes and consumer confidence indicators later in the week.
Asia-Pacific
- Japan: 40-year JGB auction (Wed); data Friday include unemployment, industrial production and retail sales.
- Australia: Monthly CPI (Wed).
- New Zealand: RBNZ rate decision (Wed).
- China: Industrial profits (Thu).
Retail watch: Holiday hopes meet cautious consumers Recent big-box results suggest the U.S. shopper is turning more value-conscious heading into peak season. Signals include:
- Price-led traffic: One major discounter leaned harder into price cuts, sacrificing margin as customers trim spending on apparel and home goods.
- Deferred projects: A leading home improvement chain reduced guidance as higher rates and inflation dampen big-ticket demand.
- Grocery-led growth: Even the sector’s top performer emphasized strength in food and bargain-seeking among mid-tier households—classic signs of caution.
- Affluent fatigue: Higher-income consumers, a pillar of 2025 spending resilience, are showing more selectivity.
Implications:
- Sales may rely on sharper promotions, pressuring gross margins.
- Inventory and markdown discipline will be central to Q4 earnings quality.
- Watch guidance from electronics and sporting goods retailers this week for read-throughs on discretionary demand.
Disclosures :
- This publication is for information only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or digital asset. Markets move quickly; quotes and levels are subject to change.
- All company names and trademarks belong to their respective owners.
- Questions or feedback? Contact your brokerage representative or our editorial desk.
Have a productive trading day.
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