Global Inflation

Weekly Global Market News – February -Week 4 The Week Ahead: Policy signals, inflation checkpoints and heavyweight earnings Good morning, and welcome to your week-ahead briefing. Below is a concise roadmap for the days ahead across macro, markets and major corporate events, written for investors who want signal over noise. Top themes to watch Washington spotlight: The US president’s State of the Union address on Tuesday will be parsed for clues on trade, energy, immigration, industrial policy and any fresh fiscal priorities. Markets will focus on growth rhetoric versus inflation discipline, and any hints on tariff paths or reshoring. Geopolitics and risk appetite: Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated amid US military deployments and a tightening timetable for talks with Iran. Meanwhile, the Ukraine conflict enters its fifth year with little progress at the negotiating table. Expect bouts of volatility in oil, gold and defense-linked equities, and a persistent bid for safe havens on adverse headlines. UK politics: A high-stakes by-election in Gorton and Denton on Thursday could test support for the governing party in a previously secure seat. Sterling and UK domestic equities may see modest event risk if the result surprises. Inflation and activity pulse: A busy slate of price and confidence data should help investors refine views on the path and timing of rate cuts across regions. Consensus expects further disinflation but will scrutinize services and wage-sensitive components. Earnings season endgame: One more cluster of bellwether reports—spanning AI leaders, consumer staples, travel and European financials—could reset leadership in global equities if guidance shifts. Macro calendar: the must-see prints Global prices and inflation expectations Euro area: January HICP (flash) midweek Germany: revised Q4 GDP (midweek), February CPI/HICP (Friday) France: February CPI (Friday) US: February Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), January PPI (Friday) Australia: January CPI indicator (Wednesday) Japan: January services PPI (Wednesday) Growth snapshots India: Q3 GDP (Friday) Switzerland: Q4 GDP (Friday) Sentiment Germany: Ifo business climate (Monday) UK: GfK consumer confidence (Friday) France: INSEE business confidence (Tuesday) Central banks and policymakers Bank of England: Governor Andrew Bailey, Chief Economist Huw Pill and MPC members testify to the Treasury Committee on Tuesday—watch for nuance on services inflation, wage dynamics and the sequencing of any future cuts. European Central Bank: President Christine Lagarde appears before the European Parliament’s ECON committee on Thursday; markets will listen for any recalibration of growth risks and the balance between headline and core disinflation. Reserve Bank of Australia: Governor Michele Bullock speaks midweek; Australia’s monthly CPI and labor data could color the near‑term policy path. Israel: Rate decision on Monday (inflation stickiness vs. growth headwinds in focus). Corporate earnings: where guidance matters most AI and software NVIDIA (Wed): The market will focus on data center momentum, supply constraints, and visibility into next‑gen architectures. Any color on networking and inference spend could ripple across semis. Salesforce (Wed): Watch billings, pricing on AI add‑ons, and margin trajectory. Dell Technologies (Thu), HP Inc. (Tue), Zoom Video (Wed), Intuit (Thu): PC/server mix, AI PCs, SMB spend resilience and tax season dynamics in view. Banks and financial infrastructure HSBC (Wed), Standard Chartered (Tue): Net interest income resilience, China exposure and capital returns under the microscope. London Stock Exchange Group (Thu), Man Group (Thu), Jupiter Fund Management (Thu), St. James’s Place (Wed): Flows, fee margins and cost discipline. Consumer and beverages   Diageo (Wed), Haleon (Wed), JM Smucker (Thu), TJX (Wed), Urban Outfitters (Wed): Pricing power vs. volume, US/EM split and inventory normalization. Industrials and airlines Rolls‑Royce (Thu), Melrose (Fri): Free cash flow credibility and aero aftermarket strength. IAG—British Airways (Fri), Qantas (Thu), Jet2 (Wed trading update), Heathrow (Wed): Yield sustainability, capacity adds for summer, and operational constraints. Telecoms, utilities, energy Deutsche Telekom (Thu), Telefonica (Tue), E.ON (Wed), Iberdrola (Wed): Capex frameworks, fiber/5G returns and leverage. ONEOK (Tue), Swiss Re (Fri): Price discipline and cat loss normalization. Advertising and media WPP (Thu): New business wins, US demand and AI-enabled productivity. Deal watch and corporate actions Media consolidation: A deadline early in the week could clarify the competitive landscape in a large-cap US media transaction following a recent antitrust milestone. Expect headline risk for peers. UK listings drift: Ashtead’s move to a primary US listing (effective Friday) underscores the continuing transatlantic pull for large UK corporates.   Geopolitics: market implications in brief Middle East: Further escalation could lift crude and downstream inflation expectations, challenging rate‑cut timelines. Defense equities and shipping may remain supported; airlines are sensitive to fuel and route changes. Ukraine: Attritional dynamics with elevated Russian losses reduce the odds of a rapid breakthrough. Watch for renewed announcements on Western support and sanctions; European gas storage and power curves remain secondary channels. Day-by-day highlights Monday Germany Ifo business climate Israel rate decision Large US bank hosts a strategic update China/Japan holidays impact regional liquidity Thursday ECB’s Lagarde at European Parliament Australia labor force report UK by‑election (Gorton and Denton) Earnings: Rolls‑Royce, Qantas, London Stock Exchange Group, WPP, Deutsche Telekom, Stellantis, Allianz, AXA, Dell Technologies, Intuit, Ocado, Man Group, Royal Bank of Canada Wednesday Euro area HICP (flash), Germany revised Q4 GDP Australia monthly CPI; Japan services PPI Earnings: NVIDIA, Salesforce, HSBC, Diageo, Haleon, Iberdrola, E.ON, Jet2, Lowe’s, TJX, Zoom, Heathrow, Adecco, Fresenius Thursday ECB’s Lagarde at European Parliament Australia labor force report UK by‑election (Gorton and Denton) Earnings: Rolls‑Royce, Qantas, London Stock Exchange Group, WPP, Deutsche Telekom, Stellantis, Allianz, AXA, Dell Technologies, Intuit, Ocado, Man Group, Royal Bank of Canada Friday US PPI; Germany and France CPI; UK GfK India Q3 GDP; Switzerland Q4 GDP Earnings: IAG, Swiss Re, Pearson, Rightmove, Melrose Industries One more to note Work culture on trial: A high‑profile New York case against an elite M&A advisory boutique over working hours and disability accommodation is due to begin. Beyond the firm involved, the outcome could influence HR policies across Wall Street. What it could mean for markets Rates: Any upside surprise in services‑led inflation, especially in Europe or Australia, could push out the market-implied timing of first cuts. Watch curves for bear‑steepening risk. Equities: AI leaders remain