Weekly Global Market News – February -Week 3

A holiday-shortened start and Asia’s festive calendar will thin liquidity early in the week, but the macro and earnings flow intensifies from Tuesday onward. Headline drivers include a heavy slate of inflation prints across advanced economies, the latest read on the US policy outlook via FOMC minutes, flash PMIs on Friday, and China’s loan prime rate decision. On the corporate side, global miners dominate with results that will ripple across iron ore, copper, and gold, while selected tech, consumer, industrials, and energy names provide important micro clues on demand, pricing power, and capital allocation.

Market conditions and closures

US: Presidents’ Day on Monday; cash equities, Treasuries, and futures observe holiday hours.
Latin America: Brazil and Argentina are closed Monday and Tuesday for Carnival.
Asia: Lunar New Year-related closures keep mainland China shut most of the week; Hong Kong runs a half-day Monday then resumes Friday. South Korea observes Seollal for three days.

Key themes to watch

1.Inflation pulse and policy path

UK CPI and PPI (Wed): Services inflation stickiness vs base effects is central to the BoE’s cut timeline. A firm print would support front-end gilt yields and underpin GBP into week’s end retail sales.
Euro area components (Germany, France; Tue/Wed): January readings help refine the ECB’s handoff from disinflation to timing cuts in H2.
Japan CPI (Fri) and Q4 GDP (Mon): A firm core outcome and resilient growth bolster the case for the BoJ’s eventual policy normalization; watch JGB term premium and yen sensitivity.
Canada CPI (Tue): Core measures and shelter components are pivotal for the BoC’s mid-year easing narrative.
Germany PPI (Fri): Producer prices continue to guide margin dynamics and potential disinflation carry-through.

2. Central bank signals

FOMC minutes (Wed): Market focus on balance between patience and data dependence on cuts. Any color on QT glidepath and inflation risk asymmetry will steer the front end of the US curve and the dollar.
China LPR decision (Fri): With growth support in focus, watch for a targeted easing bias; credit impulse implications are key for copper, iron ore, and China-sensitive equities.

3. Global growth nowcast

Flash PMIs (Fri, US/UK/Eurozone/Japan/others): Manufacturing stabilization vs services resilience; new orders and prices-paid subindices will be read for margin and inventory signals.
UK retail sales and public finances (Fri): Consumption breadth after the holiday period; implications for domestic cyclicals and gilts.
EU industrial production (Mon) and construction output (Thu): Capex temperature check across the bloc.

4. Earnings: Miners lead, with cross-asset read-throughs

- Diversified miners: BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American, Antofagasta, Newmont, Kinross, Pan African Resources (Tue–Fri). Focus on:
- Price decks and sensitivity to iron ore, copper, and gold.
- Capex discipline vs growth optionality; decarbonization and permitting updates.
- Unit costs, FX tailwinds, logistics and energy inputs.
- Dividend and buyback frameworks amid volatile commodity strips.
- Energy: Occidental, Repsol (Thu). Watch capex, shale productivity, free cash flow allocation, and commentary on supply discipline.
- Industrials/building materials: CRH, Deere & Co, Airbus, Mondi, Renault (Thu). Construction volumes, backlogs, and pricing carry; aero supply chain cadence.
- Consumer and staples: Walmart, Nestlé, Carrefour, Pernod Ricard, Moncler, InterContinental Hotels, Live Nation (Tue–Thu). Volumes vs price/mix, private-label trade-up/down, travel and events momentum, China reopening after holidays.
- Tech and payments-adjacent: Palo Alto Networks, Analog Devices, Cadence, eBay, DoorDash, Etsy, Akamai (Tue–Thu). Cybersecurity budget resilience, AI hardware cycle timing, inventory normalization in semis, e-commerce take rates and cost discipline.
- Financials and utilities/insurance: Zurich Insurance, Centrica, Consolidated Edison, Aegon, Suncorp (Wed–Thu). Cat losses, solvency metrics, rate sensitivity, retail energy margins.

Asset-class playbook

FX
- USD: Range-bound into Wednesday’s minutes; upside risks if growth momentum remains firm.
- GBP: Two-way risk around CPI/retail sales; firmer data would support sterling and front-end gilt yields.
- JPY: Sensitive to Japan CPI/GDP; hawkish BoJ expectations could re-steepen JGBs and buoy yen.
- CAD: CPI surprise steers BoC cut probabilities; watch CAD crosses for volatility.
- AUD: Labor force data (Thu) in focus; a firm print tempers early cuts pricing.
- CNH: Holiday-thinned flows; LPR bias and any growth guidance could set the tone into month-end.

Rates
- US: Curve dynamics hinge on minutes and Friday’s GDP update; stickier inflation favors bear-flattener risk.
- UK: Gilts vulnerable to services CPI; pay attention to breakevens.
- Euro area: Bunds track core inflation and PMIs; construction/IP softness still a support tailwind.
- Japan: JGB term premium sensitive to CPI and policy normalization chatter.

Equities
- Expect dispersion: commodity producers, AI-adjacent names, and defensives may decouple.
- Low Monday liquidity can amplify moves in Europe; watch for gap risk when US reopens Tuesday.

Commodities
- Iron ore and copper: Guided by miners’ capex/cost outlooks and China tone post-holidays.
- Gold: Real-yield path and central bank demand remain supportive on dips.
- Oil: Macro growth tone and inventory data to drive spreads; energy equities guided by capital return commentary.

Event radar

India’s AI Impact Summit in New Delhi (Mon–Fri): High-profile tech and industry leaders discuss AI deployment and infrastructure. Semis, hyperscale capex, and enterprise software guidance will be parsed for spend intentions and timelines.
Political and geopolitical watch: Developments in the Middle East and broader US policy headlines may add episodic risk to energy and haven flows.

The week’s calendar at a glance

Monday
- Market closures: US (Presidents’ Day), Brazil and Argentina (Carnival), South Korea (Seollal), China (Lunar New Year week), Hong Kong (half-day).
- Data: EU industrial production (Dec), India WPI (Jan); Japan and Switzerland Q4 GDP first estimates; UK Rightmove house prices (Feb).
- Earnings: Bridgestone (FY).

Tuesday
- Data: Canada CPI (Jan); Germany CPI/HICP (Jan); UK labor market stats, flash productivity (Q4), ONS housebuilding; US Conference Board Employment Trends Index.
- Earnings: Antofagasta (FY), BHP (HY), Cadence Design Systems (Q4/FY), Caesars Entertainment (Q4/FY), Carrefour (FY), DTE Energy (Q4/FY), Fluor (Q4/FY), Genuine Parts (Q4/FY), Havas (FY), InterContinental Hotels (FY), Kenvue (Q4/FY), Kerry Group (FY), Medtronic (Q3), Palo Alto Networks (Q2), Vulcan Materials (Q4/FY).

Wednesday
- Data: France CPI (Jan); Germany labor market (Q4); UK CPI and PPI (Jan), UK house price indices and private rents (Feb).
- Central banks: FOMC minutes (Jan meeting).
- Earnings: Analog Devices (Q1), BAE Systems (FY), Celanese (Q4/FY), Conduit Re (FY), DoorDash (Q4), eBay (Q4), FirstEnergy (Q4/FY), Garmin (Q4/FY), Glencore (FY), Mirvac (HY), Moody’s (Q4/FY), National Australia Bank (Q1 update), Orange (FY), Pan African Resources (HY), Pitney Bowes (Q4/FY), Suncorp (HY).

Thursday
- Data: Australia labor force (Jan); EU construction output (Dec/Q4); UK healthy life expectancy update; US JOLTS (Dec) and international trade (Dec).
- Earnings: Accor (FY), Aegon (FY), Airbus (FY), Air France-KLM (FY), Akamai (Q4/FY), Centrica (FY), Consolidated Edison (Q4/FY), CRH (Q4/FY), Deere & Co (Q1), Etsy (Q4/FY), Kinross Gold (Q4/FY), Live Nation (Q4/FY), Moncler (FY), Mondi (FY), Nestlé (FY), Newmont (Q4/FY), Occidental Petroleum (Q4/FY), Pernod Ricard (HY), Renault (FY), Repsol (Q4/FY), Rio Tinto (FY), Walmart (Q4/FY), Zurich Insurance (FY).

Friday
- Central banks: China loan prime rate decision.
- Data: Global flash PMIs (manufacturing/services) across US, UK, euro area, Germany, France, Japan, India; Germany PPI (Jan); Japan CPI (Jan); UK retail sales (Jan) and public sector finances; US Q4 GDP update.
- Earnings: Anglo American (FY), Chemring (AGM/trading), Danone (FY), Kingspan (FY), PPL (Q4/FY), SEGRO (FY), Sika (FY), Umicore (FY), Western Union (Q4/FY).

Trading considerations

Stay nimble around data drops with conditional orders; thinner early-week liquidity can widen spreads.
Consider hedging exposure in UK assets into Wednesday’s CPI; optionality may be attractive given event risk.
For metals, balance China growth signals against miners’ cost and capex guidance; dispersion across producers is likely.
In rates, front-end sensitivity to inflation surprises argues for measured positioning size ahead of releases.

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