Weekly Global Market Updates - January 26

Week Ahead: Policy, politics and profits collide

A busy stretch lies ahead for markets. Central banks take the stage, geopolitics nudges the investment narrative, and earnings season shifts into a higher gear with market leaders across technology, autos, banks, energy and industrials reporting. Here’s your concise playbook.

Top themes to watch

1) Fed week and the policy handover narrative

  • Rates: The Federal Reserve sets policy on Wednesday. A hold is widely anticipated, but the statement and Chair Powell’s press conference will carry more weight than the decision itself. Watch any nuance around inflation persistence, tariff pass-through, labour market cooling and the pace of balance-sheet runoff.
  • Politics meets policy: The White House is expected to unveil a nominee for the next Fed chair in the coming days. Prediction markets have sharply repriced the odds toward a Wall Street–friendly pick, while a previously favoured candidate has been ruled out in recent press chatter. Markets will parse the choice for clues on how aggressively the next leadership might lean on growth vs inflation risks.

2) UK–China thaw on test

  • UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer heads to Beijing this week, positioning the UK for a more pragmatic stance on trade, investment and academic ties. Expect discussions to touch financial services access, investment screening, immigration controls and sector-specific cooperation. Any signs of a detente could matter for UK-listed names with China exposure (global banks, luxury, miners, education-adjacent services).

3) Big Tech earnings: AI spend vs ROI

  • Apple (Thu): A pivotal update in a year framed by leadership succession planning and efforts to accelerate its AI roadmap, including a high-profile tie-up with Google. Investors will focus on iPhone unit trends, China demand, services growth, memory cost headwinds and any colour on generative AI integration across the ecosystem.
  • Microsoft (Wed): Capex has surprised to the upside as cloud and AI build-outs continue. Watch Azure growth, AI workload monetisation, gross margin mix, and any commentary on diversifying dependencies on external AI partners. Guidance on FY capex (consensus pegs triple-digit billions) will be key to broader AI-infrastructure sentiment.
  • Meta, IBM, ServiceNow, ASML, SAP, Samsung and others will help investors triangulate AI investment intensity, supply-chain bottlenecks and the timing of return on spend.

4) Autos pivot: autonomy and pricing power

  • Tesla (Wed) faces the market after ceding the global EV volume crown to BYD. Attention will be on delivery trajectories, price discipline vs margin protection, Full Self-Driving adoption/ASP, and progress on AI and robotics initiatives.
  • Supply chain: Any commentary on battery input costs and memory pricing will feed through to broader semiconductor and materials sentiment.

5) Banks, payments and credit quality

  • Lloyds Banking Group (Thu) opens UK bank reporting. Net interest margin sustainability, deposit mix, capital returns and provisions tied to the UK motor finance issue will drive the narrative.
  • Visa and Mastercard (Thu): Cross-border volumes, US consumer throughput, travel spend resilience and delinquency trends will be read across to global consumption.
  • Deutsche Bank, ING, Nasdaq and others provide a European lens on fee income, trading, and capital deployment.

6) Industrial strength vs execution risk

  • Aerospace/defence: Boeing (Tue), RTX (Tue), General Dynamics (Wed), Lockheed Martin (Thu), Northrop Grumman (Tue). Focus on program delivery, engine remediation, cash conversion and defence backlog durability.
  • Cyclicals: Caterpillar (Thu) and Dow (Thu) are bellwethers for capex, construction, commodities and pricing power.

7) Energy and commodities

  • ExxonMobil and Chevron (Fri): Capex discipline, upstream growth, buybacks and refined product margins. Commentary on LNG and Permian productivity will be closely watched.
  • Miners: Production updates (Glencore, Antofagasta) will colour the outlook for copper, coal and trading earnings volatility.

Macro calendar — the highlights

Central banks

  • Wednesday: US Federal Reserve rate decision and press conference
  • Wednesday: Bank of Canada rate decision

Inflation and growth

  • Australia CPI (Wed)
  • Germany: preliminary January CPI and HICP, plus labour market and first Q4 GDP read (Fri)
  • Eurozone: flash Q4 GDP and December unemployment (Fri)
  • France: flash Q4 GDP (Fri)
  • US: December PPI (Fri)

Other key releases

    • Japan: December services PPI (Tue); BoJ December meeting minutes (Wed)
    • UK: BRC Shop Price Index (Tue); BoE money and credit (Fri)
    • US: JOLTS job openings and Conference Board consumer confidence (Tue); Q3 productivity/costs revision (Thu)

Earnings — names likely to set the tone

Tuesday

  • General Motors, Boeing, UPS, Union Pacific, Texas Instruments, Kimberly-Clark, LVMH, Northrop Grumman, NextEra Energy, UnitedHealth, RTX, American Airlines, Nucor, Seagate, Logitech

Wednesday

  • Microsoft, Meta, IBM, ServiceNow, Tesla, Starbucks, ASML, General Dynamics, PPG, AT&T, KPN, Levi Strauss, Corning, Textron

Thursday

  • Apple, Samsung Electronics, SAP, Visa, Mastercard, Blackstone, Deutsche Bank, ING, Lloyds, Caterpillar, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Sanofi, H&M, easyJet, Royal Caribbean, Nokia, STMicroelectronics, Nasdaq, United Rentals, Glencore production, Antofagasta production

Friday

  • ExxonMobil, Chevron, American Express, Aon, Colgate-Palmolive, Verizon, Franklin Resources, Canadian National Railway, Nomura, Electrolux, Eastman Chemical

What could move markets unexpectedly

  • A hawkish rhetorical tilt from the Fed on inflation stickiness or QT, or any hint of openness to earlier cuts could swing the front end of the curve and growth vs value leadership.
  • A Fed chair nomination perceived as markedly market-friendly (or the reverse) could reprice rate-path expectations and USD direction.
  • Tech capex discipline: stronger-than-expected capital intensity without clear monetisation could weigh on AI beneficiaries; conversely, evidence of monetisation ramp could reignite AI equity momentum.
  • Autos margin surprise: firmer pricing or faster autonomy monetisation could challenge prevailing EV skepticism.
  • UK–China signals: concrete steps on financial services access or investment flows would be supportive for select UK large-caps with Asia exposure.

Quick reference: Day-by-day snapshot

Monday

  •  Market holidays: Australia (Australia Day observed), India (Republic Day)
  • Select results: Ryanair, WR Berkley, Nitto Denko, Costain

Tuesday

  • Data: Japan services PPI; US JOLTS; US consumer confidence; UK BRC shop prices
  • Earnings: Boeing, GM, UPS, RTX, Northrop, LVMH, Texas Instruments, Kimberly-Clark, Seagate, Logitech, UnitedHealth, American Airlines, Nucor, NextEra

Wednesday

  • Central banks: Fed; Bank of Canada
  • Data: Australia CPI; Japan BoJ minutes; UK capital markets statistics
  • Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, IBM, ServiceNow, Tesla, Starbucks, ASML, General Dynamics, PPG, AT&T, KPN, Levi Strauss, Corning, Textron

Thursday

  • Data: US productivity/costs revision
  • Earnings: Apple, Samsung, SAP, Visa, Mastercard, Lloyds, Deutsche, ING, Blackstone, Caterpillar, Lockheed, Honeywell, H&M, easyJet, Sanofi, Nokia, STMicro, Nasdaq, United Rentals, Royal Caribbean, Glencore (production), Antofagasta (production)

Friday

  • Data: EU/France/Germany flash Q4 GDP; Germany labour/CPI; UK money & credit; US PPI
  • Earnings: ExxonMobil, Chevron, American Express, Aon, Colgate-Palmolive, Verizon, Franklin Resources, Canadian National Railway, Nomura, Electrolux, Eastman Chemical

Market context to keep in mind

  • Rates and FX: Front-end yields remain sensitive to any change in Fed tone; USD path will reflect both policy divergence and growth surprises from Europe.
  • Commodities: Refining margins, winter demand, and Opec+ signals (meeting Sunday) set the near-term tone for energy. Copper guidance from miners will inform sentiment on industrial metals and China growth proxies.
  • Credit: Watch card lenders and networks for delinquency and charge-off commentary; banks’ provisioning trends are a leading indicator for late-cycle credit dynamics.

Outside the markets

  • The Church of England will formally install Dame Sarah Mullally as the first female Archbishop of Canterbury this week, an event likely to draw wide public interest.

House view in one line

  • Policy stability with political noise, plus earnings that must justify last year’s multiple expansion: this week’s messages from the Fed and Big Tech will shape how much patience investors grant the AI and capex cycle in Q1.

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