Weekly Global Market News - Nov 24

Weekly Global market Updates Nov 24

Week Ahead Playbook: Budgets, Beige Book and Black Friday

Good morning and welcome to your trading week.
The coming days blend policy theatre, thin holiday liquidity and a final flurry of data before year-end positioning takes hold. Three themes to watch:

UK fiscal reset in the spotlight

The UK Chancellor will deliver her Autumn fiscal statement on Wednesday alongside updated projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Focus for markets:
Credibility of the medium-term path to balance the current budget by 2029–30 without higher basic income tax rates.
Any structural reforms to lift business investment: capex incentives, R&D treatment, planning and infrastructure delivery, and changes to capital allowances.
Gilt supply implications and Debt Management Office remit updates; sensitivity of the 5–10 year sector and real yields.
Household income and consumption: thresholds, allowances and benefit uprating.
Market takeaways: A convincing pro-investment framework would be sterling- and equity-supportive and could compress UK term premia. A piecemeal package that leans on future restraint risks steeper curves and pressure on domestic cyclicals.

2) US holiday week: quiet tape, loud signals

US markets are shut Thursday for Thanksgiving and typically operate shortened hours on Friday. Expect subdued volumes and intermittent liquidity through the week.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (Wed) arrives as investors debate how long restrictive policy must stay in place. Read-throughs on wage momentum, pricing power and credit conditions will steer front-end expectations.
Consumer lens: Conference Board confidence (Tue) and real-time read-across from Black Friday/Cyber Monday. Watch for discounting intensity and inventory commentary from retailers.
Political backdrop: Media reports suggest the White House is pushing to accelerate talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine ahead of the holiday. Any credible movement would reverberate through energy, European risk and defense names. This remains highly uncertain.

2) US holiday week: quiet tape, loud signals

US markets are shut Thursday for Thanksgiving and typically operate shortened hours on Friday. Expect subdued volumes and intermittent liquidity through the week.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (Wed) arrives as investors debate how long restrictive policy must stay in place. Read-throughs on wage momentum, pricing power and credit conditions will steer front-end expectations.
Consumer lens: Conference Board confidence (Tue) and real-time read-across from Black Friday/Cyber Monday. Watch for discounting intensity and inventory commentary from retailers.
Political backdrop: Media reports suggest the White House is pushing to accelerate talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine ahead of the holiday. Any credible movement would reverberate through energy, European risk and defense names. This remains highly uncertain.

3) Inflation checkpoints in Europe; Asia in focus

Germany prints preliminary November CPI/HICP (Fri), with France CPI/PPI the same day. A downside surprise would support the case for earlier ECB easing in 2026, while stickiness in services would argue for patience.
Eurozone sentiment: GfK consumer climate (Thu) and the ECB’s consumer expectations survey (Fri).
Japan’s markets are closed Monday for Labor Thanksgiving Day; BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi speaks Thursday. Any nuance on the path for yield-curve control and negative rates exit remains JPY-relevant.
China’s industrial profits (Thu) will be parsed for margins and pricing trends across upstream sectors.

Equities: earnings and retail watch

Retail and hardware dominate a lighter earnings slate:
Big-box and electronics: Best Buy, Dell Technologies, HP.
Software and semis: Autodesk, Analog Devices, NetApp.
Travel and leisure: easyJet.
UK consumer bellwethers: Kingfisher, Pets at Home, Halfords, AO World.
Industrials: Deere & Co (capex and farm cycle read-through).
China tech: Alibaba.
What to listen for:
Holiday promotions, traffic versus conversion, and margins under discounting pressure.
PC/server cycle timing and AI-related spend mix.
Inventory normalization and working capital as rates stay restrictive.
UK discretionary exposure to the domestic budget measures.

Fixed income

Gilts are most sensitive midweek. Watch 2s/10s re-steepening risk if fiscal math leans on back-loaded consolidation.
USTs typically experience holiday-week technicals: thin depth can amplify moves around Beige Book headlines. Curve shape remains a function of growth resilience versus the timing of 2026 cuts.
Bunds take their cue from German CPI on Friday; front-end pricing will swing with services inflation.

FX

GBP: Budget credibility is key. Pro-growth supply-side signals would support GBP on the crosses; disappointment risks drift lower in quiet conditions.
EUR: Sensitive to German/French CPI and ECB minutes. Signs of softer core inflation bolster a gradualist easing narrative for 2026.
JPY: Holiday-thinned liquidity early week; Noguchi’s remarks could nudge rate-differential expectations. Keep an eye on global risk tone and UST yields.
USD: Seasonal liquidity plus retail data pulse; range-bound bias with a data-lite backdrop.

Commodities

Crude: OPEC+ convenes at the end of the week/into the weekend. Any extension or deepening of supply management will set the tone for December. A geopolitical breakthrough in eastern Europe (uncertain) would point to lower risk premia.
Metals: Sensitive to China industrial profits and any hints of policy follow-through on infrastructure.

What matters for portfolios

- Expect air pockets: Holiday-thin markets can exaggerate moves. Consider tighter stops and smaller position sizes.
- Event sequencing favors patience: Budget (Wed) and Beige Book (Wed) land into low-liquidity conditions; volatility could cluster late Wednesday into Friday’s European inflation prints.
- Barbell positioning still makes sense: Quality balance sheets and cash generative tech on one end; selective cyclicals levered to any UK pro-investment pivot on the other.

The calendar (selected)

Monday

Japan: Labor Thanksgiving Day (markets closed)
ECB President Lagarde keynote in Bratislava (AI and education)
UK: CBI annual conference
Singapore: October CPI
Company results: Zoom, Agilent, Keysight, Prosus, Julius Baer

Tuesday

Germany: Q3 GDP estimate
France: INSEE consumer confidence
US: Conference Board consumer confidence
Company results: Alibaba, Best Buy, Dell, HP, Analog Devices, Autodesk, NetApp, easyJet, Compass Group, Kingfisher, AO World, Cranswick, Beazley (update), JM Smucker

Wednesday

US: Federal Reserve Beige Book
Australia: October CPI
Japan: Services PPI
Germany: Labour market report
Company results: Deere & Co, Pets at Home, Safestore, Impax AM, Speedy Hire

Thursday

US: Thanksgiving (markets closed; early close Friday)
ECB: Minutes of the latest policy meeting
Germany: GfK consumer climate
China: Industrial profits
BoE MPC member Megan Greene speaks; BoJ’s Asahi Noguchi speaks
UK: Capital markets issuance statistics
Company results: Halfords, Pennon, James Latham, VP

Friday

France: November CPI/PPI; Q3 GDP update
Germany: November CPI/HICP (flash)
Canada: Q3 GDP
EU: ECB consumer expectations survey
India: Q2 (fiscal year) GDP
UK: Corporate profitability statistics
Global: Black Friday retail trading; labour actions in parts of the sector may cause localized disruptions

Risk radar

Policy surprises in the UK Budget (tax mix, spending envelopes, investment incentives)
US Beige Book tone toward labor-market cooling and credit standards
OPEC+ supply signals and any geopolitical headlines
Low-liquidity slippage around holiday sessions

House view in brief

Rates: Data dependence remains the anchor; we prefer intermediate duration in the UK into the statement, with nimble risk management around supply.
Equities: Favor quality growth and balance-sheet strength; selectively add to UK domestic plays on credible pro-investment signals.
FX: Tactical GBP upside if the Budget leans pro-growth without spooking gilts; EUR range trade into inflation prints; USD broadly stable in thin markets.

Important information

This commentary is provided for information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, currency or commodity. Markets can move quickly and past performance is not a reliable guide to future results. If you are unsure about the suitability of any investment, please seek independent financial advice.