Nov 25 – Daily Market Updates
Nov 25 – Daily Market Updates Market snapshot (as of 6:33 a.m. ET) S&P 500 futures: 6,710.25 (-0.16%) Nasdaq 100 futures: 24,871.25 (-0.31%) US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.029% (+0.6 bps) Dollar Spot Index: 1,225.87 (-0.07%) Bitcoin: 87,359.7 (-1.58%) Five things to know 1) Stocks take a breather: US equity futures eased following a tech-led run-up as traders brace for fresh reads on the economy. Retail sales and producer prices due today will help shape expectations for a potential Fed rate cut next month. 2) AI hardware rivalry intensifies: The market’s AI leaders are no longer moving in lockstep. Google and Nvidia are in focus as investors assess whether Google’s in-house chips can provide a credible alternative to Nvidia’s dominance in AI compute. 3) SoftBank under pressure: Shares fell sharply for a second session as investors weighed whether a stronger push from Google’s Gemini could dent OpenAI’s momentum—an important exposure for SoftBank’s portfolio. 4) Crypto’s selling pressure cools: The recent wave of Bitcoin liquidation appears to be slowing, stoking hopes the drawdown is stabilizing. The token is hovering around the $88,000 mark. 5) Geopolitics on the tape: President Donald Trump held calls with leaders in China and Japan amid heightened tension over Taiwan. Equities in Hong Kong and mainland China welcomed signs of engagement. Context matters: Why GPUs won: Nvidia’s graphics processors, built for parallel workloads, proved ideal for training large AI models. Nvidia then layered a deep software ecosystem on top, creating a powerful moat. Why TPUs are catching on: Google’s seventh-generation TPUs reportedly deliver stronger performance-per-watt and improved efficiency for certain AI tasks, especially at hyperscale, while reducing energy draw—a growing cost center for AI operators. What this isn’t: An overnight replacement. Even Google isn’t attempting to phase out GPUs entirely. The AI buildout is expanding so quickly that many players will coexist, but any real customer diversification is enough to shake confidence in a single-supplier narrative. Investor takeaway: The AI stack is evolving rapidly—from chips to models to applications. Leadership can rotate within segments even as AI remains the primary engine behind US equity strength. If you believe the cycle continues, be careful exiting the winners too soon, but watch for signs of spend rationalization and second-order beneficiaries (power, networking, memory, and cooling). On the move Zoom +4.4% premarket: Revenue topped expectations, highlighting traction across its enterprise toolkit beyond video conferencing. SanDisk +2.3%: Set to enter the S&P 500, replacing Interpublic, pending index rebalancing. Spotify +3.3%: Reported plans to lift US subscription prices in Q1, signaling continued pricing power. Alibaba ADRs +4.2%: Beat on revenue as China’s AI and cloud investments underpin growth. On deck before the bell: Abercrombie & Fitch, Best Buy, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Kohl’s. After the close: Autodesk, Dell Technologies, HP Inc., Workday, Zscaler. Copper: the prize everyone wants Copper has rallied roughly 23% year-to-date, with supply expected to run tight for years. That backdrop is driving bold corporate maneuvers: BHP’s last-minute play: The world’s largest miner made a late push to acquire Anglo American in an effort to block Anglo’s roughly $60 billion combination with Teck Resources, according to reporting. Talks fizzled within days, but the move underscored how coveted tier-one copper assets in South America have become. Why the urgency: Structural demand from grid upgrades, EVs, AI data centers, and renewable buildouts is colliding with constrained project pipelines and permitting delays. For diversified miners, scale copper exposure is increasingly strategic. Investor lens: Expect continued M&A noise, premium pricing for quality ore bodies, and focus on capital discipline. Operating execution and jurisdictional risk will be key differentiators. Policy and risk Private markets debate: Apollo’s Marc Rowan pushed back on claims that integrating private assets into retirement and insurance portfolios creates systemic risk, arguing that sensational headlines have outpaced substance. Scrutiny has intensified following distress at a handful of sponsor-backed credits. Geopolitics: Diplomatic outreach between the US, China, and Japan may steady nerves, but Taiwan-related flashpoints remain a key risk for supply chains and Asia equities. Crypto corner Flows: About $6 billion has exited global crypto exchange-traded products so far this month—the largest monthly outflow on record since 2018. Composition matters: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen redemptions totaling only about 3% of their roughly $110 billion in assets, suggesting stickier capital among core holders despite volatility. Price action: Selling pressure appears to be abating, with BTC near $88,000. Watch liquidity conditions into month-end and any large creation/redemption activity as cues for near-term direction. Day ahead US: Retail sales; Producer Price Index; multiple big-box and specialty retailers report premarket; enterprise software and PC hardware after the close. Rates: 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.03%—a pivotal level for equity valuation support. FX/commodities: Softer dollar lends a modest tailwind to risk; copper remains bid on supply tightness. The AI trade is broadening beneath the surface, crypto stress looks to be moderating, and copper’s long-cycle story is pulling strategy and capital into the pit. Near-term, today’s inflation and consumer data will set the tone for the Fed-path narrative and determine whether the recent equity momentum has room to run. Important disclosures This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset. Market data is subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consider your objectives, risk tolerance, and costs before investing. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. 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