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Weekly Global Market News – february Week 4

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Weekly Global Market News – February -Week 4 The Week Ahead: Policy signals, inflation checkpoints and heavyweight earnings Good morning, and welcome to your week-ahead briefing. Below is a concise roadmap for the days ahead across macro, markets and major corporate events, written for investors who want signal over noise. Top themes to watch Washington spotlight: The US president’s State of the Union address on Tuesday will be parsed for clues on trade, energy, immigration, industrial policy and any fresh fiscal priorities. Markets will focus on growth rhetoric versus inflation discipline, and any hints on tariff paths or reshoring. Geopolitics and risk appetite: Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated amid US military deployments and a tightening timetable for talks with Iran. Meanwhile, the Ukraine conflict enters its fifth year with little progress at the negotiating table. Expect bouts of volatility in oil, gold and defense-linked equities, and a persistent bid for safe havens on adverse headlines. UK politics: A high-stakes by-election in Gorton and Denton on Thursday could test support for the governing party in a previously secure seat. Sterling and UK domestic equities may see modest event risk if the result surprises. Inflation and activity pulse: A busy slate of price and confidence data should help investors refine views on the path and timing of rate cuts across regions. Consensus expects further disinflation but will scrutinize services and wage-sensitive components. Earnings season endgame: One more cluster of bellwether reports—spanning AI leaders, consumer staples, travel and European financials—could reset leadership in global equities if guidance shifts. Macro calendar: the must-see prints Global prices and inflation expectations Euro area: January HICP (flash) midweek Germany: revised Q4 GDP (midweek), February CPI/HICP (Friday) France: February CPI (Friday) US: February Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), January PPI (Friday) Australia: January CPI indicator (Wednesday) Japan: January services PPI (Wednesday) Growth snapshots India: Q3 GDP (Friday) Switzerland: Q4 GDP (Friday) Sentiment Germany: Ifo business climate (Monday) UK: GfK consumer confidence (Friday) France: INSEE business confidence (Tuesday) Central banks and policymakers Bank of England: Governor Andrew Bailey, Chief Economist Huw Pill and MPC members testify to the Treasury Committee on Tuesday—watch for nuance on services inflation, wage dynamics and the sequencing of any future cuts. European Central Bank: President Christine Lagarde appears before the European Parliament’s ECON committee on Thursday; markets will listen for any recalibration of growth risks and the balance between headline and core disinflation. Reserve Bank of Australia: Governor Michele Bullock speaks midweek; Australia’s monthly CPI and labor data could color the near‑term policy path. Israel: Rate decision on Monday (inflation stickiness vs. growth headwinds in focus). Corporate earnings: where guidance matters most AI and software NVIDIA (Wed): The market will focus on data center momentum, supply constraints, and visibility into next‑gen architectures. Any color on networking and inference spend could ripple across semis. Salesforce (Wed): Watch billings, pricing on AI add‑ons, and margin trajectory. Dell Technologies (Thu), HP Inc. (Tue), Zoom Video (Wed), Intuit (Thu): PC/server mix, AI PCs, SMB spend resilience and tax season dynamics in view. Banks and financial infrastructure HSBC (Wed), Standard Chartered (Tue): Net interest income resilience, China exposure and capital returns under the microscope. London Stock Exchange Group (Thu), Man Group (Thu), Jupiter Fund Management (Thu), St. James’s Place (Wed): Flows, fee margins and cost discipline. Consumer and beverages   Diageo (Wed), Haleon (Wed), JM Smucker (Thu), TJX (Wed), Urban Outfitters (Wed): Pricing power vs. volume, US/EM split and inventory normalization. Industrials and airlines Rolls‑Royce (Thu), Melrose (Fri): Free cash flow credibility and aero aftermarket strength. IAG—British Airways (Fri), Qantas (Thu), Jet2 (Wed trading update), Heathrow (Wed): Yield sustainability, capacity adds for summer, and operational constraints. Telecoms, utilities, energy Deutsche Telekom (Thu), Telefonica (Tue), E.ON (Wed), Iberdrola (Wed): Capex frameworks, fiber/5G returns and leverage. ONEOK (Tue), Swiss Re (Fri): Price discipline and cat loss normalization. Advertising and media WPP (Thu): New business wins, US demand and AI-enabled productivity. Deal watch and corporate actions Media consolidation: A deadline early in the week could clarify the competitive landscape in a large-cap US media transaction following a recent antitrust milestone. Expect headline risk for peers. UK listings drift: Ashtead’s move to a primary US listing (effective Friday) underscores the continuing transatlantic pull for large UK corporates.   Geopolitics: market implications in brief Middle East: Further escalation could lift crude and downstream inflation expectations, challenging rate‑cut timelines. Defense equities and shipping may remain supported; airlines are sensitive to fuel and route changes. Ukraine: Attritional dynamics with elevated Russian losses reduce the odds of a rapid breakthrough. Watch for renewed announcements on Western support and sanctions; European gas storage and power curves remain secondary channels. Day-by-day highlights Monday Germany Ifo business climate Israel rate decision Large US bank hosts a strategic update China/Japan holidays impact regional liquidity Thursday ECB’s Lagarde at European Parliament Australia labor force report UK by‑election (Gorton and Denton) Earnings: Rolls‑Royce, Qantas, London Stock Exchange Group, WPP, Deutsche Telekom, Stellantis, Allianz, AXA, Dell Technologies, Intuit, Ocado, Man Group, Royal Bank of Canada Wednesday Euro area HICP (flash), Germany revised Q4 GDP Australia monthly CPI; Japan services PPI Earnings: NVIDIA, Salesforce, HSBC, Diageo, Haleon, Iberdrola, E.ON, Jet2, Lowe’s, TJX, Zoom, Heathrow, Adecco, Fresenius Thursday ECB’s Lagarde at European Parliament Australia labor force report UK by‑election (Gorton and Denton) Earnings: Rolls‑Royce, Qantas, London Stock Exchange Group, WPP, Deutsche Telekom, Stellantis, Allianz, AXA, Dell Technologies, Intuit, Ocado, Man Group, Royal Bank of Canada Friday US PPI; Germany and France CPI; UK GfK India Q3 GDP; Switzerland Q4 GDP Earnings: IAG, Swiss Re, Pearson, Rightmove, Melrose Industries One more to note Work culture on trial: A high‑profile New York case against an elite M&A advisory boutique over working hours and disability accommodation is due to begin. Beyond the firm involved, the outcome could influence HR policies across Wall Street. What it could mean for markets Rates: Any upside surprise in services‑led inflation, especially in Europe or Australia, could push out the market-implied timing of first cuts. Watch curves for bear‑steepening risk. Equities: AI leaders remain

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February 19 – Daily Market Update 

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19 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily — Broad Market Update Tone check Risk appetite is taking a breather. US equity futures are a touch softer as investors weigh the timing of policy easing against still-sturdy inflation readings, while Europe trades lower on mixed earnings and cyclical weakness. Asia finished mostly firmer, led by Japan’s tech-heavy benchmarks. Oil extends its rebound on heightened geopolitical jitters, and digital assets are steadier after recent volatility. Market snapshot (as of 06:06 a.m. ET; levels provided) S&P 500 Futures: 6871.75 (-0.33%) Stoxx Europe 600: 624.62 (-0.65%) Nikkei 225: 57467.83 (+0.57%) WTI Crude (front-month): 66.12 (+1.43%) Bitcoin: 66813.69 (+0.77%) Note: Market data may be delayed depending on provider agreements. What’s driving the tape Policy recalibration: Central bank officials remain cautious about declaring victory on inflation, keeping the market’s rate-cut timetable in flux. The result: a tug-of-war between resilient growth data and lingering price pressures, with yields and risk assets chopping in ranges. Earnings season crosscurrents: Guidance is taking center stage. Companies with clear margin visibility and pricing power are being rewarded, while those citing cost creep or supply constraints are seeing quick reratings. Dispersion across sectors remains high. AI and capex arithmetic: Investors continue to debate the balance between heavy infrastructure spend and the timing of monetization. That has introduced periodic volatility across semis, cloud, and software, even as long-term demand narratives remain intact. Geopolitics and commodities: Crude is firmer as traders price a higher risk premium. Broader commodity moves are uneven, with energy leading and industrial inputs mixed. Crypto steadies: After outsized swings, the major coin is firmer. Participation trends have shifted between offshore venues and US-listed products, contributing to episodic liquidity pockets and basis moves. Regional wrap US: Futures drift lower as equities digest a powerful multi-month advance. Quality growth and balance-sheet strength continue to command a premium. Bond markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of upcoming data and central bank commentary. Europe: Benchmarks are lower, paced by cyclicals and select industrials facing supply chain and cost headwinds. Defensive groups and cash-generative staples are relatively resilient. Asia: Japan outperformed, helped by tech and exporters. The broader region was mixed as investors balanced a constructive earnings outlook with a cautious global policy backdrop. Fixed income and FX Rates: Treasury yields are range-bound as the market toggles between soft-landing hopes and sticky-services-inflation concerns. Curves are relatively steady with modest intra-day swings around data releases and speeches. Currencies: The dollar trades in a tight range versus major peers. Rate differentials remain the key driver, while commodity-linked FX is taking its cue from energy markets. Commodities Energy: Oil extends gains amid geopolitical concerns and signs of improving demand in pockets of the global economy. Refining margins and inventory trends are in focus for energy equities. Metals: Price action is mixed as growth-sensitive metals track the global activity pulse while precious metals trade alongside real yields and haven flows. Flows and positioning Global allocations: International appetite for US assets has remained robust, supported by relative growth, deep markets, and currency dynamics. Valuation shifts over the past year have also encouraged selective rebalancing into US equities and Treasuries. Equity style tilt: Investors continue to favor profitability, free cash flow, and balance-sheet durability. Factor leadership can rotate quickly around policy headlines; maintaining diversification across styles has helped dampen volatility. Sector highlights (broad) Tech and AI ecosystem: Ongoing reassessment of near-term spend versus earnings impact keeps volatility elevated, but secular demand drivers remain a tailwind. Consumer and services: Companies with strong customer retention and pricing discipline are outperforming; those exposed to higher delivery, labor, or input costs face a tougher setup. Industrials and transportation: Order books are healthy in places, but supply bottlenecks and component availability are a watch item. Energy: Higher crude supports upstream and select service names; integrateds benefit from cash generation and capital discipline. The day ahead Focus: Corporate updates from large retailers, industrials, and travel/leisure; central bank speakers; and upcoming inflation and activity data later in the week. What to watch: Guidance quality, margin commentary, inventory management, and any shifts in capex plans. Portfolio considerations Equities: Favor quality balance sheets and sustainable cash flows; keep diversification across growth and value to manage factor swings. Fixed income: With policy uncertainty persisting, a barbell across short/intermediate duration can help manage rate risk while capturing carry in higher-quality credit. Commodities: Consider energy’s role as both a cyclical and geopolitical hedge; monitor refinery and inventory trends. Risk management: Maintain hedges where appropriate; volatility remains event-driven and can spike around data or headlines. Levels at a glance (as provided) S&P 500 Futures: 6871.75 (-0.33%) Stoxx Europe 600: 624.62 (-0.65%) Nikkei 225: 57467.83 (+0.57%) WTI Crude: 66.12 (+1.43%) Bitcoin: 66813.69 (+0.77%) This material is a broad market update for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Markets are volatile and subject to change. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and

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Jan 05 – Daily Market Update

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05 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily — Broad Market Update Market snapshot (as of ~6:35 a.m. ET) US equity futures: higher; tech leading gains while broader benchmarks grind up US 10-year Treasury: yield modestly lower near the mid‑4.1% area as haven demand persists Crude oil: little changed, WTI hovering in the high‑$50s US dollar: firmer versus majors; safe‑haven tone evident Precious metals: gold and silver extend recent strength Overnight and early session A risk-on tone is carrying into the new week, with global equities advancing despite a concurrent bid for traditional havens. Investors appear to be balancing geopolitical headlines with resilient earnings expectations and ongoing enthusiasm around AI-related capex. The result: tech-heavy benchmarks are outpacing broader indices, while defensives and commodity-linked names also attract interest. Rates and policy US Treasuries: The long end is slightly richer as investors weigh geopolitical developments and upcoming labor-market data. The curve is broadly steady, with modest bull-flattening bias. Policy outlook: Markets remain data-dependent. Softening inflation trends and mixed growth signals keep the door open to incremental easing later this year, but timing and pace will hinge on jobs, wages, and services inflation in the weeks ahead. Equities Leadership: Semiconductors and AI-adjacent hardware continue to power gains on expectations of robust data center and memory demand. Defense and aerospace stocks are bid amid geopolitical tension. Select energy names are supported by potential upstream investment narratives even as spot crude remains range-bound. Breadth: Participation is improving, though leadership remains concentrated in tech and a handful of cyclicals tied to infrastructure and industrial automation. Earnings lens: Early preannouncements suggest a bifurcation—AI-driven capex beneficiaries and productivity enablers are guiding firmly, while consumer-exposed names are more mixed given uneven discretionary demand. Commodities Crude oil: Prices are steady as the market weighs supply risk headlines against ample spare capacity elsewhere and a still-gradual demand trajectory. Near-term balances look manageable, keeping volatility subdued unless supply disruptions broaden. Precious metals: Gold’s uptrend reflects a mix of geopolitical hedging, firm central-bank buying, and lower real yields. Silver is tracking higher alongside, aided by industrial demand themes. Currencies and crypto FX: The dollar is modestly stronger, aligned with a cautious global bid for safety and slightly softer non-US growth data. High-beta currencies are under pressure, with select Latin American FX volatile on regional political risk. Digital assets: Major tokens are firmer, with sentiment supported by risk appetite in tech and ongoing institutional interest, though day-to-day moves remain headline-sensitive. What’s driving the tape Geopolitics: Developments in Latin America have stoked haven flows without materially denting the global growth outlook. Markets are assessing whether the situation alters energy supply paths or financing conditions—so far, the impact looks contained. AI investment cycle: The multi-year infrastructure build (compute, memory, networking, power) continues to underpin tech multiples and capex visibility across the supply chain. Fed path: With inflation progress uneven but improving, investors are focused on the upcoming US labor data and services gauges to refine expectations for the timing of any policy easing. The week ahead: key catalysts to watch US: ISM manufacturing/services, JOLTS, ADP, factory orders, weekly jobless claims, and the December payrolls report plus wage growth and participation. Consumer confidence and housing indicators round out the macro picture. Europe: Country-level inflation updates, unemployment, producer prices, and industrial production will guide the ECB outlook. Watch Germany and France CPI prints and Eurozone confidence surveys. Asia: China CPI/PPI and trade-related readings for demand signals; Japan household spending and leading indicators; Taiwan and regional CPI releases. Events: A packed tech calendar around major industry showcases and company updates may influence sector positioning and supply-chain sentiment. Positioning and levels to monitor US 10-year yield: 4.0%–4.3% zone remains pivotal for risk appetite and equity multiples. Equities: Momentum favoring large-cap tech persists; watch whether breadth improves into payrolls. Pullbacks toward recent support have been well-bid. Oil: A sustained break from the mid‑$50s to low‑$60s range would likely require clearer evidence of supply disruption or demand acceleration. Risks to the outlook Geopolitical escalation that materially impacts energy supply or shipping lanes Upside surprises in services inflation or wages that push back rate-cut timelines Profit margin pressure from rising input or financing costs Liquidity pockets and year-start positioning amplifying volatility Markets are threading the needle between robust tech-driven earnings narratives and a cautious macro backdrop. Geopolitical uncertainty is lifting havens but hasn’t derailed the equity bid. This week’s US jobs and global inflation updates are the next major checkpoints for rates and risk assets. This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market levels are approximate and subject to change. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Jan 05 – Daily Market Update January 5, 2026 05 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily —… Read More Jan 02 – Daily Market Update

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