Global Markets

Weekly Global Market News – february Week 1

Weekly Global Market News – February -Week 1 Week Ahead Playbook (Week of 3–9 February 2026) What matters this week Japan’s snap election: A short, high-stakes campaign culminates on Sunday. Markets are weighing whether a renewed mandate for the ruling LDP under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi could usher in looser fiscal policy and keep upward pressure on long-dated JGB yields. Thailand votes: A test of stability for a slowing economy contending with trade frictions, weather-related disruption and a tense regional backdrop. The baht and local equities will be sensitive to coalition arithmetic and policy signals. Rates on hold in Europe? The ECB and BoE meet. Consensus looks for no change, with the ECB steady and the BoE waiting for inflation to settle sustainably at target before cutting. Guidance and forecasts will matter as much as the decisions. Macro pulse check: Global PMIs and the US January jobs report headline a busy data slate that will shape views on growth resilience and the pace of disinflation. Earnings heavyweights: Big Tech, energy majors, pharma and consumer bellwethers report. AI investment, cloud and ad trends, obesity drugs, buybacks and capex discipline are the key themes. Geopolitics and industry: The Singapore Airshow opens with defense and aerospace in focus. Later in the week, the Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina provide a tourism and media side-note to markets. Central bank watch European Central Bank (Thu): Broadly expected to leave rates unchanged (market narrative centers on a steady deposit rate profile early in 2026). Watch: Inflation trajectory versus the ECB’s comfort with near-term downside surprises. Updated language on growth, wage dynamics and the path from “restrictive for longer” to eventual easing. Any hints on balance-sheet operations and reinvestments. Bank of England (Thu): The MPC is widely expected to hold while it waits for inflation to return to 2% in the spring. Watch: Vote split and tone of forward guidance. Fresh views on trend productivity, following signs of a potential UK productivity pickup. How the BoE balances service inflation stickiness against easing goods disinflation. At the ballot box Japan (Sun): The shortest general election campaign in decades has amplified market volatility. Key swing factor: households squeezed by higher prices and rates. Market implications: Rates: Long JGBs remain vulnerable to renewed fiscal expansion signals; curve steepening risk persists. FX: JPY could react to any post-vote policy clarity and risk sentiment. Equities: Domestic cyclicals, banks and construction may move on fiscal tone; defensives on cost-of-living narratives. Thailand (Sun): A fragmented landscape and minority rule have kept uncertainty elevated. Market implications: THB and local bonds will respond to fiscal priorities, investment incentives and external trade positioning. Sectors to watch: banks (credit growth/margins), tourism/leisure (policy support), exporters (tariff and FX sensitivity). Macro data to watch Global PMIs (Mon/Wed/Thu): Manufacturing and services readings across the US, euro area, UK, Japan, China and others will refine the soft-landing debate and pricing power trends. Euro area flash HICP (Wed): A crucial input for the ECB’s inflation narrative; components (core, services) will matter for timing of any future pivot. UK housing (Mon/Fri): Nationwide and Halifax house price updates provide a read on mortgage affordability and consumer confidence. US labor market (Fri): January nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and wage growth will steer expectations for the Fed’s path and real yields. Japan: Summary of opinions (Mon) from the latest policy meeting may offer clues on the normalization roadmap. Earnings spotlight Tech and internet: Alphabet (Wed): Cloud margins, advertising momentum and AI monetization road map. Amazon (Thu): Retail margins, AWS growth and AI infrastructure spend; headcount and cost discipline under the microscope. AMD (Tue), Qualcomm (Wed), Arm (Wed): AI PC/server silicon demand, guidance quality, and supply chain visibility. Snap (Wed), Uber (Wed): Ad mix and engagement (Snap); profitability cadence and mobility/delivery trends (Uber). Pharma/biotech: Pfizer (Tue), Merck (Tue), Eli Lilly (Wed), Novo Nordisk (Wed), AbbVie (Wed): GLP-1 demand and capacity, pricing, pipeline milestones and 2026 top-line bridges. Energy and industrials: Shell (Thu), ConocoPhillips (Thu), Phillips 66 (Wed): Capital return frameworks versus capex; refining margins; LNG updates. Maersk (Thu), Anglo American (Thu), ArcelorMittal (Thu), VINCI (Thu): Freight rates and deglobalization effects; mining guidance; infra backlogs and pricing. Consumer and payments: PepsiCo (Tue), Mondelez (Tue), Chipotle (Tue), O’Reilly (Thu): Volume versus pricing, elasticity and input costs. PayPal (Tue): Take rate trends, cost saves, product roadmap. Autos and Japan Inc: Toyota (Fri), Sony (Thu), Nintendo (Tue), Panasonic (Wed), Mitsubishi Electric (Tue), Suzuki (Thu), KDDI (Fri): FX sensitivities, EV pipelines, gaming cycle, image sensors, and capital allocation. Sectors and themes AI and semis: Watch capex guidance across hyperscalers and chipmakers; supply constraints versus demand exuberance. Healthcare: Obesity-drug capacity, payer dynamics and long-term margin mix. Energy: Discipline remains the mantra; geopolitics and OPEC compliance frame near-term price action. Banks: UK and eurozone banks may react to rate path guidance and loan growth signals; capital returns remain a support. Travel and aerospace: Singapore Airshow headlines drones, fighters and commercial backlogs; Olympics buzz adds a modest lift to European travel/leisure sentiment. Day-by-day calendar (selected) Monday, 2 Feb Data: Global manufacturing PMIs; UK Nationwide house prices; Japan BoJ summary of opinions. Earnings: Central Japan Railway; East/West Japan Railway; TDK; Disney; Tyson Foods; Julius Baer; IDEXX; Revvity. Corporate: AstraZeneca shares begin trading on the NYSE. Tuesday, 3 Feb Policy/Data: Australia rate decision; Euro area Bank Lending Survey; US JOLTS openings. Earnings: AMD, Alphabet (see Wed), PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Merck, Amgen, Mondelez, Chipotle, Electronic Arts, Jacobs, Willis Towers Watson, Prudential Financial, LATAM Airlines, Nintendo, Mitsubishi Electric, Teradyne, Skyworks, Take-Two, Publicis, ADM, Enphase, Ametek, Emerson, Hubbell, Grainger, Ball Corp, Clorox, Kinnevik, LBG Media, Match, Prudential Financial, West Japan Railway. Wednesday, 4 Feb Events: FT energy policy summit (Brussels/online). Singapore Airshow continues. Data: Global services PMIs; Euro area flash HICP; UK international reserves. Earnings: Alphabet, Arm, GSK, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, UBS, Santander, Handelsbanken, Equinor, Phillips 66, Johnson Controls, MediaTek, Panasonic, Rohm, Infineon, Boston Scientific, McKesson, Qualcomm, Uber, Snap, T Rowe Price, Watches of Switzerland, SSE. Thursday, 5 Feb Policy: ECB rate decision; BoE rate decision; Germany factory

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January 29 – Daily Market Update

29 January 2026- Daily Market Updates Quick take Metals rally extends: Precious and industrial metals pushed to fresh highs as investors rotate toward hard assets and supply narratives tighten. Tech earnings split the tape: AI-related capital spending remains the common thread, but the market is rewarding clear monetization paths and punishing slower cloud growth or vague payoffs. US futures modestly firmer; Europe in the green; Asian equities mixed with mainland China stronger. Policy watch: Progress reported in US government funding discussions; investors remain attentive to headline risk. Dollar little changed; sovereign yields drift as safe-haven flows and growth expectations tug in opposite directions. Market overview Equities US equity futures indicate a cautious positive open as investors digest a heavy earnings slate from megacaps and industrial bellwethers. Europe trades higher, led by technology and cyclicals, while defensives lag. Asia was mixed overnight: mainland Chinese benchmarks advanced, while parts of North Asia underperformed on tech volatility. Commodities Gold notched another record, aided by softer real yields, haven demand, and ongoing diversification by asset allocators. Silver and copper extended gains. Copper’s move has been amplified by positioning dynamics and optimism around electrification demand, alongside pockets of supply constraint. Energy prices were range-bound as markets balanced geopolitical risk with signs of resilient supply. FX and rates The US dollar index was broadly steady, with modest strength against high-beta currencies offset by stability in Europe and Asia FX. US Treasury yields were little changed to softer at the front end, with the curve showing a mild flattening bias as markets calibrate growth, inflation, and the rate path. Earnings and corporate highlights Big Tech: Investor reaction remains uneven. Firms articulating clearer near-term revenue lift from AI and software subscriptions outperformed, while those showing decelerating cloud metrics or heavier near-term spend faced pressure. Semiconductors and equipment: Select chip-tool makers beat expectations on orders tied to memory and advanced nodes, reinforcing a multiyear capex upcycle. Enterprise software: A strong report from a US large-cap name contrasted with a sharp selloff in a European peer after softer cloud backlog commentary. Consumer and industrials: A major casino operator missed on Asia operations; machinery and aerospace names are in focus with results across the tape. EVs and automation: A leading EV maker outlined elevated investment plans aimed at simplifying its vehicle lineup and accelerating robotics/AI initiatives, underscoring the sector’s pivot beyond autos. Macro and policy developments US fiscal negotiations: Reports suggest incremental progress toward averting a shutdown; timing and details remain fluid, keeping a mild risk premium in the backdrop. Asia policy and flows: China tightened parameters on a cross-border investment program amid strong demand; Indonesian equities were volatile after an index provider raised market accessibility concerns, with authorities signaling steps to address them. Critical minerals: Shares across the rare-earths space softened after indications the US may not proceed with certain price-support mechanisms. Digital assets: Policymakers and industry participants held discussions on the path forward for crypto legislation, highlighting regulatory momentum even as details remain unsettled. Metals in focus: what’s driving the move Macro hedging: With uncertainties around growth, deficits, and the rate path, investors have sought ballast in precious metals. Supply and capex: Years of underinvestment are colliding with demand from electrification and infrastructure, supporting industrial metals. Positioning: Momentum and speculative flows can amplify moves in both directions; volatility risk is rising alongside prices. What we’re watching Earnings: Pre-open and post-close updates from large-cap tech, payments, industrials, and defense. Guidance on AI spend, cloud demand, consumer resilience, and margin trajectories will be pivotal. Data and central banks: Inflation trends, labor-market signals, and any shifts in central bank rhetoric that could recalibrate the rate-cut timeline. Market breadth and leadership: Can participation broaden beyond a handful of megacaps as earnings season progresses? Positioning and liquidity: Elevated single-name dispersion and options activity into results windows can increase intraday swings. Strategy considerations Keep time horizons clear around AI: Distinguish between near-term monetization and longer-dated platform bets when assessing valuation support. Metals exposure: Consider the potential for sharp pullbacks in extended trends; risk controls matter as positioning builds. Quality and cash flow: In a choppy tape, balance sheet strength and visibility on free cash flow remain favored characteristics. Diversification: Cross-asset moves remain tightly linked; ensure portfolios are not implicitly concentrated in the same macro factor. Calendar highlights (next 24–48 hours) US: Heavy earnings slate across technology, payments, consumer, and industrials; assorted confidence and housing indicators. Europe/UK: Corporate results and sentiment surveys. Asia: Policy headlines, China activity gauges, and tech supply-chain updates. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Markets are volatile and subject to change. Consider your objectives and risk tolerance before making investment decisions. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. January 29 – Daily Market Update January 29, 2026 29 January 2026- Daily Market

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Weekly Global Market News – January 26

Leave a Comment / Weekly Global Market Update, Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Weekly Global Market Updates – January 26 Week Ahead: Policy, politics and profits collide A busy stretch lies ahead for markets. Central banks take the stage, geopolitics nudges the investment narrative, and earnings season shifts into a higher gear with market leaders across technology, autos, banks, energy and industrials reporting. Here’s your concise playbook. Top themes to watch 1) Fed week and the policy handover narrative Rates: The Federal Reserve sets policy on Wednesday. A hold is widely anticipated, but the statement and Chair Powell’s press conference will carry more weight than the decision itself. Watch any nuance around inflation persistence, tariff pass-through, labour market cooling and the pace of balance-sheet runoff. Politics meets policy: The White House is expected to unveil a nominee for the next Fed chair in the coming days. Prediction markets have sharply repriced the odds toward a Wall Street–friendly pick, while a previously favoured candidate has been ruled out in recent press chatter. Markets will parse the choice for clues on how aggressively the next leadership might lean on growth vs inflation risks. 2) UK–China thaw on test UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer heads to Beijing this week, positioning the UK for a more pragmatic stance on trade, investment and academic ties. Expect discussions to touch financial services access, investment screening, immigration controls and sector-specific cooperation. Any signs of a detente could matter for UK-listed names with China exposure (global banks, luxury, miners, education-adjacent services). 3) Big Tech earnings: AI spend vs ROI Apple (Thu): A pivotal update in a year framed by leadership succession planning and efforts to accelerate its AI roadmap, including a high-profile tie-up with Google. Investors will focus on iPhone unit trends, China demand, services growth, memory cost headwinds and any colour on generative AI integration across the ecosystem. Microsoft (Wed): Capex has surprised to the upside as cloud and AI build-outs continue. Watch Azure growth, AI workload monetisation, gross margin mix, and any commentary on diversifying dependencies on external AI partners. Guidance on FY capex (consensus pegs triple-digit billions) will be key to broader AI-infrastructure sentiment. Meta, IBM, ServiceNow, ASML, SAP, Samsung and others will help investors triangulate AI investment intensity, supply-chain bottlenecks and the timing of return on spend. 4) Autos pivot: autonomy and pricing power Tesla (Wed) faces the market after ceding the global EV volume crown to BYD. Attention will be on delivery trajectories, price discipline vs margin protection, Full Self-Driving adoption/ASP, and progress on AI and robotics initiatives. Supply chain: Any commentary on battery input costs and memory pricing will feed through to broader semiconductor and materials sentiment. 5) Banks, payments and credit quality Lloyds Banking Group (Thu) opens UK bank reporting. Net interest margin sustainability, deposit mix, capital returns and provisions tied to the UK motor finance issue will drive the narrative. Visa and Mastercard (Thu): Cross-border volumes, US consumer throughput, travel spend resilience and delinquency trends will be read across to global consumption. Deutsche Bank, ING, Nasdaq and others provide a European lens on fee income, trading, and capital deployment. 6) Industrial strength vs execution risk Aerospace/defence: Boeing (Tue), RTX (Tue), General Dynamics (Wed), Lockheed Martin (Thu), Northrop Grumman (Tue). Focus on program delivery, engine remediation, cash conversion and defence backlog durability. Cyclicals: Caterpillar (Thu) and Dow (Thu) are bellwethers for capex, construction, commodities and pricing power. 7) Energy and commodities ExxonMobil and Chevron (Fri): Capex discipline, upstream growth, buybacks and refined product margins. Commentary on LNG and Permian productivity will be closely watched. Miners: Production updates (Glencore, Antofagasta) will colour the outlook for copper, coal and trading earnings volatility. Macro calendar — the highlights Central banks Wednesday: US Federal Reserve rate decision and press conference Wednesday: Bank of Canada rate decision Inflation and growth Australia CPI (Wed) Germany: preliminary January CPI and HICP, plus labour market and first Q4 GDP read (Fri) Eurozone: flash Q4 GDP and December unemployment (Fri) France: flash Q4 GDP (Fri) US: December PPI (Fri) Other key releases Japan: December services PPI (Tue); BoJ December meeting minutes (Wed) UK: BRC Shop Price Index (Tue); BoE money and credit (Fri) US: JOLTS job openings and Conference Board consumer confidence (Tue); Q3 productivity/costs revision (Thu) Earnings — names likely to set the tone Tuesday General Motors, Boeing, UPS, Union Pacific, Texas Instruments, Kimberly-Clark, LVMH, Northrop Grumman, NextEra Energy, UnitedHealth, RTX, American Airlines, Nucor, Seagate, Logitech Wednesday Microsoft, Meta, IBM, ServiceNow, Tesla, Starbucks, ASML, General Dynamics, PPG, AT&T, KPN, Levi Strauss, Corning, Textron Thursday Apple, Samsung Electronics, SAP, Visa, Mastercard, Blackstone, Deutsche Bank, ING, Lloyds, Caterpillar, Lockheed Martin, Honeywell, Sanofi, H&M, easyJet, Royal Caribbean, Nokia, STMicroelectronics, Nasdaq, United Rentals, Glencore production, Antofagasta production Friday ExxonMobil, Chevron, American Express, Aon, Colgate-Palmolive, Verizon, Franklin Resources, Canadian National Railway, Nomura, Electrolux, Eastman Chemical What could move markets unexpectedly A hawkish rhetorical tilt from the Fed on inflation stickiness or QT, or any hint of openness to earlier cuts could swing the front end of the curve and growth vs value leadership. A Fed chair nomination perceived as markedly market-friendly (or the reverse) could reprice rate-path expectations and USD direction. Tech capex discipline: stronger-than-expected capital intensity without clear monetisation could weigh on AI beneficiaries; conversely, evidence of monetisation ramp could reignite AI equity momentum. Autos margin surprise: firmer pricing or faster autonomy monetisation could challenge prevailing EV skepticism. UK–China signals: concrete steps on financial services access or investment flows would be supportive for select UK large-caps with Asia exposure. Quick reference: Day-by-day snapshot Monday Market holidays: Australia (Australia Day observed), India (Republic Day) Select results: Ryanair, WR Berkley, Nitto Denko, Costain Tuesday Data: Japan services PPI; US JOLTS; US consumer confidence; UK BRC shop prices Earnings: Boeing, GM, UPS, RTX, Northrop, LVMH, Texas Instruments, Kimberly-Clark, Seagate, Logitech, UnitedHealth, American Airlines, Nucor, NextEra Wednesday Central banks: Fed; Bank of Canada Data: Australia CPI; Japan BoJ minutes; UK capital markets statistics Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, IBM, ServiceNow, Tesla, Starbucks, ASML, General Dynamics, PPG, AT&T, KPN, Levi Strauss, Corning, Textron Thursday Data: US productivity/costs revision Earnings: Apple, Samsung,

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January 19 – Daily Market Update

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19 January 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily: Risk appetite cools as trade tensions resurface; earnings and central banks in focus At a glance Equities: European benchmarks slipped and US equity futures tracked lower; Asia finished mixed with Japan softer. Rates and FX: Short-dated core yields eased; haven currencies outperformed while the dollar was little changed on balance. Commodities: Precious metals advanced to new highs; energy prices were range-bound. Global overview A cautious tone gripped markets to start the week as investors weighed renewed trade rhetoric between the US and Europe alongside uneven global growth signals. With US cash equities closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, price action was led by Europe and Asia. Cyclical pockets most exposed to transatlantic trade—autos, luxury and select industrials—lagged, while defensives and commodity-linked names found support. The bid for safety was evident in firmer precious metals, modest strength in the Swiss franc, and a small rally in front-end European government bonds. Credit risk gauges ticked wider, reflecting a tentative pullback in risk appetite rather than broad stress. Regional highlights Europe: Stocks declined broadly, led by export-heavy sectors. A handful of company-specific downgrades and cautious outlooks added to pressure in consumer discretionary. Semicap equipment outperformed after strong order indications from one supplier, bucking the tech-sector drift. US: Futures pointed lower with volumes thinner into the holiday. Earnings season accelerates this week, and guidance tone will be key given elevated valuation starting points. Asia: Japan underperformed on political headlines and higher-rate concerns ahead of the central bank meeting later in the week. China-related assets were mixed after data signaled slower momentum into year-end, reinforcing the picture of uneven domestic demand. Policy and macro Trade: European officials signaled they are preparing responses should broad new US import levies materialize. Markets are watching for any move from rhetoric to policy that could ripple through supply chains and margins. Growth: Recent Chinese figures showed moderation, consistent with a gradual, bumpy post-pandemic normalization amid global protectionism. In Japan, a snap election call injected uncertainty into the policy outlook, with bonds softening on the risk of looser fiscal settings. Central banks: The Bank of Japan meets Friday with markets parsing any tweaks to guidance. Several smaller central banks in Europe and Asia also decide policy this week. Earnings lens The next leg of the rally hinges on delivery. With indices near highs, there’s less room for earnings misses or cautious outlooks. Focus areas: Top-line resilience vs. FX headwinds in Europe Margin trends in consumer and industrials given input-cost normalization AI- and cloud-driven capex durability for semis and software Credit quality and deposit dynamics for US regional banks Week ahead: key markers to watch Monday: US markets closed (MLK Day); Canada inflation. Tuesday: Euro-area and Germany surveys; UK labor data; early US bank and travel/streaming results. Wednesday: UK inflation; US housing and construction indicators; high-profile policy and corporate appearances at the annual business forum in Switzerland. Thursday: US GDP (advance), personal income and PCE inflation; labor-market claims; multiple EM/DM rate decisions. Friday: Japan CPI and policy decision; preliminary PMIs across major economies; UK and Canada retail updates; US consumer sentiment. Cross-asset moves Equities: Pullback concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors; defensives and selected commodity names fared better. Expect positioning to rebalance around earnings beats/misses and guidance. Rates: Front-end core yields dipped as growth and policy uncertainty nudged duration buyers back in; long-end moves were contained. FX: Dollar mixed; CHF and JPY found support on haven demand; high-beta FX lagged. Commodities: Gold and silver extended gains on geopolitical and policy hedging; oil held in a tight band as supply risks met soft demand signals. What matters from here Policy path vs. rhetoric: Concrete steps on tariffs would have broader implications for inflation, margins and central bank reaction functions; headlines alone can keep volatility elevated. Earnings credibility: With lofty multiples, guidance for 2026 profit trajectories may steer leadership more than backward-looking beats. Liquidity and flows: Recent months have seen strong inflows into US equity funds, cushioning dips; a reversal would amplify any earnings disappointments. Credit as a canary: Monitoring spread moves in sub-investment grade as a real-time gauge of risk tolerance. The market is treating trade salvos as a tail risk rather than a base case, but pricing in a higher risk premium across trade-exposed equities and credit. Near term, earnings and central bank messaging are likely to dominate. Expect choppy trading around guidance, with quality balance sheets and visible cash flows better positioned if volatility persists. This publication is for information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Markets are volatile and past performance is not indicative of future results. Consider your objectives and risk tolerance before making investment decisions. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. January 19 – Daily Market Update January 19, 2026 19 January 2026 –

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Weekly Global Market News – January 19

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Weekly Global Market Update / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Weekly Global Market News – Jan 19 Week Ahead: Davos diplomacy, IMF growth call, Japan’s snap election signal, and a heavy earnings slate Welcome to your weekly market briefing. The next five days pack in global policy theater, first-tier macro releases, and bellwether corporate updates. Below is a concise roadmap for clients as you position across equities, rates, FX, and commodities. Top themes to watch Davos sets the policy toneGlobal leaders and CEOs converge on the World Economic Forum with industrial policy, supply chain security, AI, and geopolitics in focus. A large US delegation, Ukraine’s leadership, and senior European officials raise odds of headlines on Ukraine support and European economic integration. Markets will parse any hints on trade restrictions, critical minerals access, and defense spending. Japan: election timing and the BoJLocal media expect Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to announce the dissolution of the lower house, paving the way for an early general election (watch for Feb 8 or 15 as possible dates). Political risk can amplify yen and JGB volatility. The Bank of Japan follows at week’s end with a policy decision after December’s move to 0.75%. Key questions: pace of normalization, balance-sheet run-off, and guidance on wage-price dynamics. IMF World Economic OutlookThe Fund’s winter update lands Monday. Focus points: global growth downgrades/upgrades, US resilience, China’s trajectory, eurozone stagnation risk, and inflation persistence. Expect market sensitivity to revisions in 2026 growth and trade forecasts. Inflation and activity data blitzPrice prints from the UK, euro area, Germany, and Japan will update the disinflation narrative; flash PMIs on Friday will offer a timely read on demand, pricing, and hiring across major economies. China and the US release headline GDP updates—vital for cyclicals, commodities, and duration trades. Earnings season acceleratesStreaming, semiconductors, miners, airlines, rails, and oilfield services all report. Management tone on pricing, inventories, capex, and 2026 margin outlook will steer factor leadership. Macro and policy calendar Monday IMF World Economic Outlook update China Q4 GDP estimate Euro area December HICP (final) Canada CPI US: Martin Luther King Jr Day (markets closed) Tuesday Bank of England Financial Policy Committee testimony in Parliament China policy rate announcement Euro area Q3 GDP update Germany PPI UK labor market report (jobs, wages) Wednesday IEA Oil Market Report UK CPI and PPI Thursday ECB minutes from the latest meeting UK public finances US Q3 GDP update (third estimate) Australia labor force report Friday Japan: BoJ rate decision and CPI Flash PMIs: euro area, Germany, France, UK, US, India UK retail sales Corporate earnings and events (highlights) Tuesday Netflix (Q4): Watch ad-tier traction, paid sharing durability, ARPU momentum, free cash flow, and commentary on content spend. Media deal chatter persists around studio assets; any M&A hints could move streaming peers. US regionals: US Bancorp, Fifth Third Bancorp Industrials/consumer: 3M; DFS Furniture (UK) Wednesday Rio Tinto (Q4 operations): Pilbara shipments, iron ore price assumptions, opex/capex guidance, decarbonization spend, copper growth optionality. Johnson & Johnson; Halliburton; Charles Schwab; United Airlines; Prologis; Burberry (trading); Experian (Q3) Thursday Intel (Q4): Gross margin bridge, foundry roadmap, AI PC adoption, DCG trends, 2026 capex steers; read-through across semis. Procter & Gamble; GE Aerospace; Abbott Laboratories; Capital One; Northern Trust; Freeport-McMoRan; Alcoa; CSX; McCormick; AJ Bell; B&M; ABF Friday SLB (Schlumberger); Ericsson; SSP; Record Geopolitics and policy diary UK planning decision on China’s proposed London embassy site is due Tuesday—a bilateral signal to watch for sterling-sensitive risk. NATO military chiefs meet midweek with Ukraine on the agenda. Vietnam’s Communist Party Congress runs through the week (supply-chain diversification lens). Market implications and positioning thoughts Equities US: Earnings breadth vs. margin resilience is the swing factor. Watch communication services (streaming consolidation narrative), semis (AI PC cycle and capex), industrials/aerospace (backlogs, pricing), energy services (international/offshore cycle). Europe/UK: Consumer discretionary and luxury exposed to China demand; UK retailers and staples trade on pricing power vs. volume. Financials sensitive to rate path implied by CPI/PMIs and ECB minutes. Materials: Iron ore and copper leverage China GDP and Rio/Freeport guidance; monitor capex discipline signals. Rates US Treasuries: Thin Monday; then GDP/PMIs drive the belly. A firmer growth mix supports term premia; softer PMIs revive duration bids. Gilts: UK CPI and labor data set tone for front-end repricing; retail sales can tweak the curve into week’s end. Bunds/OATs: Euro HICP and PMIs to guide ECB cut probability; minutes may show tolerance for slower cuts. JGBs: BoJ communication risk is elevated; any hawkish tilt (wages, inflation persistence, balance-sheet runoff) could steepen. FX JPY: Event-rich week (election signal + BoJ) raises realized vol; stay nimble around policy headlines. GBP: CPI/labor/PMI trio could whipsaw sterling; embassy decision is a secondary geopolitical watch. EUR: Sensitive to PMIs and ECB tone; crosses likely trade on relative growth momentum. AUD: Labor print and China data shape AUD-beta to global growth. Commodities Energy: IEA OMR plus US macro should frame demand; services earnings (HAL/SLB) inform offshore/international activity. Metals: China GDP is the primary driver; Rio/FCX guidance adds micro detail on supply, grades, and capex. Gold: Real yields and dollar path remain decisive; watch for haven bids if policy/geopolitics surprise. Five quick checkpoints for clients IMF growth revisions: Does the Fund ratify “soft-landing + slow disinflation,” or lean more cautious on 2026? UK CPI: Does services inflation ease enough to keep BoE cuts in play for mid‑year? BoJ: Any shift in language on wage settlements or QT could reset JPY and global rates correlations. China GDP: Is the print and commentary consistent with metals pricing and miners’ guidance? Netflix/Intel/Rio: Three bellwethers for digital media, AI hardware, and old-economy cyclicals—tone will steer sector leadership. Key risks Policy surprises from Davos comments on trade/industrial policy Faster/slower disinflation altering rate-cut timelines Japan policy/election uncertainty whipsawing JPY and global duration Earnings guidance resets, particularly around 2026 margin and capex Client note This publication is provided for information only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Markets involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Consider your objectives and risk tolerance, and consult a licensed

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January 16 – Daily Market Update

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16 January 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily | Broad Market Update Market Snapshot (as of 06:25 am ET; levels may be delayed) Nasdaq 100 futures: 25861.25 (+0.60%) Stoxx Europe 600: 614.1 (-0.07%) Hang Seng: 26844.96 (-0.29%) Bitcoin: 95314.2 (-0.25%) Spot gold: 4609.59 (-0.13%) What’s moving markets Equities: A renewed bid for large-cap technology is lifting US futures, with strength spilling over from Asia where a regional tech gauge set a fresh high. Europe is more mixed: broad indices are flat to slightly lower, but semiconductor supply-chain names continue to attract buyers on signs of sustained spending across advanced chip manufacturing. Credit: Risk appetite remains firm. Credit spreads are hovering near multi‑year tights and primary issuance is running at a brisk pace as companies lock in funding early in the year. While carry remains attractive, tighter premia leave less cushion if growth or inflation surprises. Rates: US Treasuries are stuck in a notably narrow range, with the 10‑year yield little changed over the past several weeks. Such periods of low volatility have previously preceded larger moves; investors are watching incoming data and policy signals for a catalyst. Commodities: Precious metals are slightly softer alongside firmer risk sentiment. Industrial metals are steady, while crude holds in a tight band amid balanced supply headlines and demand expectations. Digital assets: Bitcoin is consolidating after a strong multi‑week run. Volatility remains elevated relative to traditional asset classes, and correlation to equities has ticked higher recently. Regional highlights United States: Tech leadership is back in focus ahead of a heavy stretch of corporate results. Positioning is skewed toward firms levered to AI infrastructure and cloud demand, while cyclicals are trading in line with growth expectations. Markets continue to price an easing path for policy rates over 2026, with timing and pace sensitive to inflation prints and labor trends. Europe: Technology is the standout sector year‑to‑date, helped by chip‑equipment suppliers tied to capacity expansion. Banks and energy are range‑bound as investors weigh margins, capital returns, and commodity stability. Auto sentiment remains uneven amid shifting EV demand and promotional activity. Asia: Equity performance is mixed. Strength in technology offsets softness in select consumer and property pockets. Policy support and trade signals are in focus, with some indications of improved access and lower frictions in bilateral commerce. Earnings and issuance lens Financials, transports, and health care guide the earnings calendar over the coming sessions. Results will be parsed for margin resilience, loan growth, credit normalization, and capex intentions for 2026. Primary bond markets are active across investment‑grade and leveraged finance. Persistent demand is meeting elevated supply, supporting refinancing but compressing compensation for risk. Selectivity by sector and tenor remains key as liquidity conditions ebb and flow. Themes to watch AI and semiconductors: Upbeat capital‑spending plans across advanced nodes and memory are supporting upstream equipment providers and specialty materials. Watch order backlogs and delivery timelines as a gauge of durability. Credit tightness: With spreads near cycle lows, portfolio construction is increasingly about quality differentiation, structure, and liquidity management rather than reaching further out the risk curve. Rangebound rates: A breakout from the recent Treasury yield corridor could reset cross‑asset correlations. Data surprises on inflation, growth, or employment are the likely triggers. Global trade and industrial policy: Evolving tariff and subsidy frameworks continue to shape capital allocation in autos, energy, and technology supply chains. Market positioning takeaways Equities: Leadership remains narrow but broadening attempts continue beneath the surface. Watch for earnings revisions and guidance on pricing power and inventories. Fixed income: Carry is constructive, but with limited spread buffer. Duration neutrality with tactical flexibility has been favored in recent weeks as the curve fluctuates. Alternatives and commodities: Gold’s drift lower mirrors firmer risk tone; longer‑term hedging demand persists. Energy markets remain headline‑sensitive; positioning is balanced. The week ahead Key data in the days ahead includes inflation updates, housing indicators, business surveys, and jobless claims in the US; sentiment gauges and final price readings in Europe; and activity indicators across Asia. Central‑bank speakers and corporate guidance may offer the catalysts rates markets have been waiting for. Note: This commentary is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or product. Market levels are indicative and subject to change. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. January 16 – Daily Market Update January 16, 2026 16 January 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily |… Read More january 15 – Daily Market Update January 15, 2026 15 January 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily —… Read More january 14 – Daily Market Update January 14, 2026 14 January 26 – Daily Market Updates Market snapshot (as… Read More january 13 – Daily Market Update January 13, 2026 13 January 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily—Broad Market… Read More Jan 12 – Daily Market Update January 12, 2026

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january 14 – Daily Market Update

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14 January 26 – Daily Market Updates Market snapshot (as of early US morning) S&P 500 futures: 6972.5 (-0.42%) Stoxx Europe 600: 610.96 (+0.09%) Nikkei 225: 54341.2 (+1.48%) China CSI 300: 4741.9 (-0.40%) Bitcoin: 94935.56 (+0.92%) Global overview US: Equity futures edge lower as investors weigh a firmer labor backdrop against shifting interest-rate expectations. Options and rates pricing continue to lean toward a prolonged Fed pause, with markets trimming the odds of near-term cuts after resilient employment data. Europe: Regional benchmarks are modestly higher, led by defensives and select growth names. Focus remains on earnings season and sovereign funding conditions as governments ramp up issuance. Asia: Japan outperformed with the Nikkei setting fresh records amid optimism around policy support and corporate profitability. Mainland Chinese shares eased following steps to curb leverage in stock trading, tempering a powerful recent rally. Commodities Precious and industrial metals extended an early-year surge, with several benchmarks notching new highs. Tailwinds include: Expectations that global financial conditions will remain supportive even if the Fed stays patient. A bid for portfolio diversifiers amid geopolitical unease and concerns over sovereign debt loads. Improved sentiment toward manufacturing demand, including investment tied to data centers, electrification and automation. Ongoing supply frictions at mines and smelters that keep inventories tight. While momentum is strong, positioning has become crowded, leaving the complex sensitive to shifts in the dollar, policy signals, or evidence of demand cooling. Rates and currencies US rate markets reflect a higher-for-longer narrative relative to earlier assumptions, with some participants positioning for no additional policy easing this year. The debate now centers on how long the Fed can hold policy steady while inflation trends lower only gradually. The US dollar is broadly steady, limiting commodity tailwinds but not reversing them. European yields remain range-bound as investors monitor issuance and fiscal trajectories. Corporate and sector highlights Select megacap technology, semiconductor, and AI-adjacent infrastructure names remain in focus as capital expenditure plans for computing and power build-outs continue to scale. Auto and EV shares are mixed on shifting expectations for new model launches and profitability timelines. Consumer and luxury names are steady to firmer in Europe on optimism around wearable tech and premium accessories. Large European defense suppliers continue to explore primary listings and capital-raising options amid elevated demand visibility. In the US, major banks are set to report, offering a read on net interest income, credit normalization, deposit trends, and capital return plans. Policy and macro themes The central-bank outlook has become more nuanced: resilient jobs data reduce urgency for additional easing, but inflation progress remains key. Market-implied paths now cluster around a longer pause scenario with a narrower distribution of potential cuts. Policy headlines tied to elections and regulatory priorities are adding idiosyncratic risk, particularly for financials, defense, and consumer credit. Expect periodic volatility as proposals surface, even without immediate legislative traction. In Asia, selective regulatory tightening in equity financing aims to stabilize recent rapid gains, while pro-growth signals in Japan continue to underpin risk appetite. Digital assets Bitcoin gained modestly, extending a steady start to the week. Flows remain driven by broader risk sentiment and positioning rather than a single catalyst. What we’re watching Bank earnings for guidance on credit quality, charge-offs, and capital deployment. Corporate updates from AI, cloud, and power-equipment ecosystems for evidence of sustained capex. Any shifts in Fed communications or data that alter the implied rate path. Developments in Asian equity-market regulation and their impact on trading leverage and turnover. Primary issuance and IPO pipelines in Europe, notably in industrials and defense. Thoughts for investors Broader cross-asset leadership is constructive, but crowded trades in metals and AI-linked thematics increase the premium on risk management. With policy risk rising into an election-heavy year, sector diversification and attention to headline sensitivity are prudent. In rates, the distribution of outcomes has tightened around “steady for longer,” raising the importance of carry, curve positioning, and relative value rather than big directional bets. Disclosure This material is a general market commentary for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, asset class, or strategy. Market levels are indicative and subject to change. Consider your objectives and risk tolerance before making investment decisions. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. january 13 – Daily Market Update January 14, 2026 14 January 26 – Daily Market Updates Market snapshot (as… Read More january 13 – Daily Market Update January 13, 2026 13 January 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily—Broad Market… Read More Jan 12 – Daily Market Update January 12, 2026 12 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily Your… Read More Jan 09 – Daily Market Update January 9, 2026 09 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Market at a… Read More Jan 08 – Daily Market Update January 8, 2026 08 Jan 26 – Daily

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january 13 – Daily Market Update

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Daily Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

13 January 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily—Broad Market Update Market at a glance (as of 06:07 am ET; levels and changes are indicative) Nikkei 225: 53549.16 (+3.10%) S&P 500 Futures: 7005 (-0.16%) Stoxx Europe 600: 609.75 (-0.20%) Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index: 1210.5 (+0.08%) Bitcoin: 92011.56 (+1.14%) Global market wrap Asia: Japanese equities surged to fresh highs, led by cyclical and export-oriented names as investors priced in prospects for pro-growth policy and a supportive domestic backdrop. Broader Asian benchmarks were mixed, with pockets of strength in autos, semiconductors, and industrial technology. Europe: Major European indices are modestly softer in early trade after a strong multi-month run. Momentum indicators signal stretched conditions for some benchmarks, prompting talk of a near-term consolidation even as earnings expectations remain constructive. US: Equity futures are edging lower ahead of a key US inflation reading. Rate-sensitive sectors are in focus as markets assess the timing and extent of policy easing later this year. The broader tone remains constructive but data-dependent. Macro and policy Inflation watch: A closely watched US price report due today will help confirm whether disinflation is progressing smoothly or encountering a temporary bump. A firmer print could nudge yields higher and test risk appetite; a softer outcome would likely support duration and rate-sensitive equities. Central banks: Recent commentary from major central bank officials points to a preference for staying patient, keeping policy restrictive long enough to ensure inflation returns to target. Markets continue to balance that stance against an improving growth pulse. Policy and geopolitics: Headlines around trade, elections, and global security continue to inject episodic volatility into FX, rates, and energy. Investors remain alert to any policy shifts that could affect supply chains, tariffs, or the cost of capital. Earnings season: the next catalyst US financials open the season: Large banks kick off results with attention on investment banking pipelines, trading revenue normalization, net interest income trends, credit quality, and capital return frameworks. Forward guidance for 2026 will likely carry more weight than backward-looking beats or misses. Rotation vs. leadership: The recent tilt toward cyclicals, small caps, and value is being tested by earnings. While economically sensitive groups may benefit from firmer growth, mega-cap technology remains a major driver of index-level profit growth. For the rotation to endure, management teams across industrials, consumer, and financials will need to deliver confident outlooks and margin discipline. Rates, FX, and commodities Bonds: Treasury yields are steady to slightly higher into the data print, with the curve sensitive to any surprise in core inflation. European sovereigns are consolidating after a strong rally, and Japanese yields remain influenced by domestic policy expectations. Currencies: The US dollar is fractionally stronger on cautious pre-data positioning. The yen is softer on policy and political speculation, while the euro trades narrowly as markets await fresh macro signals. Energy and metals: Crude is rangebound as supply-risk headlines are weighed against demand and inventory dynamics. Industrial metals are steady, supported by signs of improving global manufacturing activity. Digital assets: Crypto benchmarks are firmer, with buyers stepping in on dips amid ongoing institutional interest and liquidity improvements. Sectors and notable themes Semiconductors: Positive broker commentary and capacity outlooks are supporting select chipmakers, particularly those tied to foundry, AI, and high-performance compute end markets. Health care/biotech: Regulatory headlines are creating dispersion, with approval timelines and data readouts driving stock-specific moves. Software and services: Contract wins and platform adoptions continue to differentiate among providers as enterprises optimize tech spending. Renewables and utilities: Policy and legal clarity are incremental tailwinds for selected projects, while execution and financing conditions remain key watch items. Autos and industrial tech: Investor enthusiasm around automation, robotics, and next-gen manufacturing continues to buoy select names. The day ahead Data: A key US inflation report, followed by labor and housing indicators later in the week. Abroad, focus remains on European confidence measures and Asia’s activity data. Earnings: Large US banks today, with more financials, consumer staples, and industrials through the week. Guidance on demand elasticity, pricing power, and cost control will be closely parsed. Events: Ongoing central bank appearances and policy remarks may influence rate expectations and cross-asset volatility. What we’re watching Can cyclicals extend their relative outperformance if inflation runs a bit hotter, or does that re-tighten financial conditions and favor defensives? Do banks point to a broadening M&A pipeline and a healthier primary market, supporting a more durable recovery in fees? Will management teams emphasize inventory normalization and productivity gains that sustain margins even if pricing power fades? Risk radar Policy shifts in trade and tariffs that affect global supply chains and input costs Inflation persistence that delays or reduces the scale of policy easing Geopolitical tensions that sway energy, shipping, and FX markets Liquidity pockets and positioning extremes after a strong year-end rally Portfolio considerations (general, not advice) Maintain diversification across styles and market caps given crosscurrents between growth leadership and cyclical catch-up. Consider the balance between duration exposure and inflation hedges around key data. Emphasize quality balance sheets and cash flow resilience as earnings season tests narratives. Disclosure This communication is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or strategy. Markets are volatile and subject to change. Please consider your objectives, risk tolerance, and consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions. Data and pricing are indicative and may differ from real-time quotes. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding

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Jan 12 – Daily Market Update

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12 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily Your broad market briefing for the trading day Market at a glance Equities: US index futures softer; European benchmarks slightly lower after an uneven open; Asia mixed with Japan closed for a holiday. Rates: Long-dated US Treasury yields edging higher; global curves exhibiting a mild steepening bias. FX: The US dollar pulls back against major peers as investors reassess policy and growth trajectories. Commodities: Gold and silver extend gains on safe-haven demand; oil trades in a tight range amid crosscurrents in supply and demand. What’s moving markets Policy uncertainty and central bank signaling are back in focus. Markets are weighing the implications of potential shifts in the path of interest rates and the broader debate around monetary policy independence, keeping volatility elevated in rates, FX, and precious metals. Positioning and concentration risk remain key themes in equities. With leadership narrowing at times over recent months, investors are paying closer attention to earnings breadth, guidance quality, and cash flow durability rather than headline growth alone. Safe-haven flows are noticeable. A softer dollar alongside strength in bullion suggests some preference for diversification, particularly as investors hedge against inflation and policy surprises. Credit and consumer finance sentiment is cautious. Headlines and regulatory discussions around consumer lending and pricing are creating short-term pressure across select financials, while the broader credit market remains orderly. Equities US: Futures point to a weaker start as investors brace for a dense macro and earnings calendar. Dispersion within large-cap tech persists; stock selection remains critical as spending on new technologies meets more rigorous profitability scrutiny. Europe: Regional indices are modestly lower, with defensives and commodity-linked names outperforming cyclical pockets. M&A interest and corporate restructuring remain supportive for select sectors. Asia: Performance was mixed in a thin session. Mainland China and parts of North Asia are digesting fresh trade and price data later this week; liquidity conditions and policy communication remain near-term catalysts. Fixed income Treasuries: The curve is tilting steeper as markets weigh near-term easing expectations against longer-run term premium and fiscal dynamics. Duration has been choppy; many are favoring barbell or laddered approaches to manage reinvestment and volatility risk. Global rates: Core European yields are little changed to slightly higher; UK gilts underperform on supply and wage/inflation sensitivity. In credit, primary issuance remains active with mostly stable spreads, though lower-quality tiers could see more differentiation into earnings. Currencies The dollar index softens as rate differentials narrow at the margin. Pro-cyclical pairs are mixed; haven FX is steady. Investors continue to explore diversification across G10 and select EM currencies, balancing carry with liquidity and policy credibility. Commodities Precious metals: Gold and silver advance on a combination of real-yield moves, dollar softness, and hedging demand. Positioning is elevated; pullbacks may be tactical in nature given ongoing macro uncertainty. Energy: Crude trades sideways as supply risks are balanced by uneven demand indicators. Time spreads remain range-bound; refinery margins and inventory data later in the week are in focus. Industrials: Base metals are mixed, with growth-sensitive contracts awaiting clearer signals from global manufacturing and construction data. The week ahead: what to watch US: Inflation (CPI/PPI), retail sales, housing activity, and the Fed’s Beige Book. A full slate of public remarks from policymakers may shed light on the reaction function and outlook for rates. Big banks and bellwethers kick off a heavy earnings stretch; investors will watch net interest income trends, credit provisioning, trading revenues, and forward guidance. Europe/UK: Industrial production, trade balances, and central bank commentary. Bank earnings and corporate updates will help gauge demand, cost pressures, and pricing power into the first quarter. Asia: China trade data and regional labor/price prints; a key policy rate decision in North Asia. Semiconductor and technology supply-chain updates remain a driver for sentiment. Canada: Housing indicators and existing home sales; Bank commentary on growth and inflation mix. Strategy snapshots Equities: Expect higher dispersion. Emphasize quality balance sheets, consistent free cash flow, and pricing power. Within tech, differentiate between long-duration R&D stories and firms showing near-term monetization. Consider global diversification as non-US markets screen more attractively on relative valuation and earnings revision trends. Rates: Curve risk is back. Investors concerned about steepening may look at intermediate tenors and add hedges where appropriate. For income, maintain flexibility to add duration on weakness; consider credit selection over beta in tighter-spread areas. FX: With the dollar softer, selectively add to non-USD exposures where policy credibility is firm and growth is stable. Maintain liquidity and avoid crowded carry where volatility could force quick reversals. Commodities: For hedgers, staggered entries in precious metals may help manage momentum-driven swings. In energy, focus on balance sheets of producers with disciplined capex and robust cash returns. Risk management checklist Track real yields and breakevens for clues on inflation psychology. Watch credit conditions and bank earnings for early reads on the consumer and corporate funding costs. Use scenario analysis around key data releases; adjust stops and position sizes to account for event risk. Maintain diversification across regions, styles, and factors to mitigate concentration risk. Housekeeping and disclosures This material is a general market commentary prepared for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or strategy. Markets are volatile; past performance is not indicative of future results. Consider your objectives, risk tolerance, and consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to

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Jan 09 – Daily Market Update

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Daily Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

09 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Market at a glance (as of ~6:00 a.m. ET) US equity futures: slightly higher (about +0.1%) as traders position for key data Europe: broader benchmarks firmer (roughly +0.4% to +0.5%) Asia: Japan outperformed (up around +1.6%) with tech and exporters in the lead US dollar: modestly stronger versus major peers (about +0.2%) US 10-year Treasury yield: near 4.19%, up a couple of basis points What’s moving markets All eyes on the US labor report: Today’s payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth will help shape expectations for the next steps in monetary policy. A steady hiring pace with contained wage pressures would support a “hold and assess” stance from the Fed, while any upside surprise in wages or core employment could nudge yields higher and firm the dollar. Trade policy watch: A potential legal decision related to tariffs is on investors’ radar. Any shift that lowers import costs could buoy risk appetite, particularly for import-reliant industries, while also complicating the rates outlook if the growth impulse and fiscal math are perceived to worsen. Rotation under the surface: Early-year flows show renewed interest in equities, with investors balancing quality growth exposures against more cyclical, trade-sensitive areas. Defensive pockets (health care, staples) continue to draw interest as a ballast against policy and macro uncertainty. Equities United States: Futures are little changed to slightly positive ahead of the data. A soft-landing narrative remains intact but fragile—labor and wages will be the tie-breaker. Within sectors, trade-sensitive consumer names and capital goods could react most to any tariff-related headlines, while rate-sensitive groups (housing, utilities) will take their cue from the move in yields. Europe: Regional indices are firmer, supported by a blend of defensives and economically sensitive names. A stable dollar and incremental improvement in external demand hopes are helping exporters. Financials remain leveraged to the path of long-end yields and curve shape. Asia: Japan led gains as chip-adjacent names and exporters extended momentum amid a firmer risk tone. Elsewhere in the region, sentiment remains selective: China-linked assets are weighed by ongoing property-sector restructuring efforts, while broader Asia benefits from steady global tech demand. Fixed income and FX Rates: Treasuries are marking time into the data with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.18%–4.20%. A hotter wage print or strong headline jobs number could push yields higher and steepen the curve; a downside surprise may extend the recent range trade and take some pressure off real rates. Dollar: The greenback is slightly firmer, reflecting cautious pre-data positioning. A benign payrolls outcome could cap further dollar gains, while any upside wage surprise would likely support the currency versus low-yielders. Commodities Energy: Crude is steady within recent ranges as supply headlines and risk sentiment offset one another. Demand signals from global PMI data and US inventory trends remain the key swing factors. Metals: Industrial metals are underpinned by consolidation talk in the mining space and hopes for eventual stabilization in construction demand, tempered by ongoing balance-sheet repair in parts of China’s property sector. Gold is little changed, with moves in real yields and the dollar in the driver’s seat. Themes to watch Tariffs and margins: Any reduction or uncertainty around import levies could influence input costs and pricing power across retail, apparel, home goods, machinery, and select technology hardware. Market reaction may be uneven, with beneficiaries on the cost side but potential push-pull on rates. Housing and rates: Policy efforts aimed at supporting mortgage markets can be a near-term tailwind for housing activity and related equities, but the durability of any boost will depend on the path of long-term yields. Electric vehicles and capital discipline: Slower EV adoption in select markets is prompting reassessments of production schedules and investment timelines across the auto-battery supply chain. China property stabilization: Restructuring steps remain in focus. The pace and scope of policy support will be key for credit sentiment, commodities demand, and regional risk assets. Scenario map for today’s US jobs data Stronger jobs and wages: Equities mixed (cyclicals up, rate-sensitives down), yields up, dollar firmer. In-line report with contained wages: Risk assets supported, yields range-bound, dollar stable to softer. Weaker jobs or softer wages: Duration bid (yields lower), dollar eases, equities lean positive for long-duration growth but may see some cyclical underperformance. The day ahead United States: Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings. Also watching any developments on trade policy/legal rulings and Fed-speak for rate-path hints. Corporate: M&A chatter in natural resources remains a swing factor for global miners; ongoing updates from autos/EV and housing-related firms may steer sector dispersion. Risk considerations Policy path ambiguity (monetary, fiscal, and trade) Geopolitical and supply-chain frictions affecting energy and freight Earnings revision risk if growth cools faster than expected Liquidity conditions as issuance and buybacks restart into earnings season Risk considerations Policy path ambiguity (monetary, fiscal, and trade) Geopolitical and supply-chain frictions affecting energy and freight Earnings revision risk if growth cools faster than expected Liquidity conditions as issuance and buybacks restart into earnings season Markets are marking time into the labor report and potential policy headlines. A balanced stance—maintaining quality exposure while keeping an eye on rate sensitivity and trade-linked cyclicals—remains prudent until the data reset the macro narrative. This commentary is for information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market levels are approximate and subject to change. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any

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