Trade Policy

February 23 – Daily Market Update

23 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily — Broad Market Update Market Snapshot (as of 06:37 am ET; subject to change) S&P 500 Futures: 6905.5 (-0.26%) Stoxx Europe 600: 629.03 (-0.24%) Dollar Index: +0.03% Bitcoin: 66226.69 (-2.01%) Hang Seng China Enterprises: 9197.38 (+2.65%) Opening take Risk tone is mixed to softer to start the week. US equity futures are a touch lower and Europe is modestly in the red, while Hong Kong-listed China proxies outperformed on renewed dip-buying. The dollar is slightly firmer, and crypto is under pressure with Bitcoin sliding. Traders are navigating a heavy macro and policy week, headline risk around global trade, and a slate of corporate earnings that could sway sector leadership. What’s moving the market Trade policy uncertainty: Fresh developments in US trade policy and related legal rulings have reintroduced volatility into global risk assets. European officials are seeking clarity on proposed US tariff changes, and any escalation or unexpected measures could reverberate through cyclicals, global industrials, and exporters. Europe opens softer: The Stoxx Europe 600 is marginally lower as defensives hold up better than tech-adjacent names. Investors are balancing macro headwinds with idiosyncratic stock moves across retail, chemicals, and software. China/Hong Kong rebound: Mainland-adjacent equities led gains in Asia, with buying interest in technology and consumer-facing names. Stabilization efforts and improved sentiment toward select Chinese assets helped lift benchmarks after recent underperformance. Weather-related disruption: Severe winter conditions across the US Northeast are constraining travel and logistics. While weather impacts are typically transitory, near-term effects can show up in airlines, freight, and brick-and-mortar retail footfall. Private markets under the microscope: Slower capital distributions from private equity and signs of tighter liquidity in parts of private credit are drawing investor attention. The larger backlog of unrealized assets and evolving fund terms put a premium on manager selection and transparency. Sectors and stocks to watch Consumer and retail: Sportswear and specialty retailers are active on buyback headlines and broker updates. Expect positioning to hinge on inventory discipline and demand visibility into spring/summer. Industrials and chemicals: Valuation resets around portfolio transactions and deal pricing are weighing on select European names; look for follow-through in peers with similar exposure. Software and cybersecurity: European tech is tracking recent US moves, with sentiment sensitive to AI-feature news flow and spending outlooks. Investors continue to differentiate between profit visibility and AI-adjacent optionality. Health care: Weight-management drug trial updates are driving large-cap dispersion within pharma. Pipeline durability, manufacturing capacity, and payer dynamics remain core to the thesis. Credit and rates Government bonds: A cautious risk tone and headline sensitivity have left core yields in a holding pattern early in the session. Incoming inflation prints and labor data later this week will be key for rate expectations. Credit: Private credit headlines, including fund-level redemption limits in isolated cases, are prompting debate around liquidity terms and borrower protections. Public credit markets remain orderly, but monitoring covenants and issuance quality remains front and center. Crypto check Bitcoin is lower, extending a drawdown that has challenged dip-buying behavior. With speculative momentum softer and macro liquidity mixed, crypto price action is increasingly sensitive to positioning rather than incremental adoption headlines. Volatility around key technical levels remains elevated. Today’s macro diary (high level) US: Factory orders and durable goods Europe: Central bank speakers; EU foreign ministers meeting Corporate: A handful of consumer, energy, and health names report; guidance will be closely watched for demand signals and cost trends The week ahead — key signposts Policy and geopolitics: Developments in US trade policy and major policy addresses could steer global risk appetite. Any shift in tariff frameworks would have implications for global supply chains and inflation. Inflation and activity: Euro-area inflation, Germany and France inflation/GP data, Canada GDP, and select Asia CPI releases will refine the disinflation narrative and growth differentials. Central banks: Rate decisions in select emerging markets and Asia, plus comments from European policymakers, may influence curve shape and FX crosses. Earnings: Mega-cap tech remains in focus with a leading semiconductor designer reporting midweek. Large retailers and banks in Europe and Asia also step up, with capex and AI-related demand under scrutiny. Positioning themes we’re watching Quality growth vs. cyclicals: With policy and macro uncertainty elevated, leadership could remain narrow until visibility improves. Earnings beats from tech hardware and semis could extend the premium for high free-cash-flow names. Europe vs. US: A steady dollar and uneven European growth keep cross-asset allocators selective; defensives and high dividend quality remain favored in Europe. Emerging markets rotation: Interest in Latin American equities has picked up as investors rebalance EM exposure. Country and sector selection are critical given rates paths and commodity sensitivities. Liquidity and alternatives: Headlines around private market exits and fund terms argue for diversified liquidity ladders and stress-testing of portfolio cash needs. What could change the story Clearer guidance on trade policy that reduces tail-risk premiums Upside or downside surprises in inflation that shift rate-cut timing Earnings revisions momentum, particularly within AI supply chains Weather normalization reducing near-term noise in US activity data Market risk reminder Market levels and pricing can move quickly and may differ by provider. This commentary is for information only and is not investment advice. Consider your objectives and risk tolerance before making investment decisions. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You

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Jan 09 – Daily Market Update

09 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Market at a glance (as of ~6:00 a.m. ET) US equity futures: slightly higher (about +0.1%) as traders position for key data Europe: broader benchmarks firmer (roughly +0.4% to +0.5%) Asia: Japan outperformed (up around +1.6%) with tech and exporters in the lead US dollar: modestly stronger versus major peers (about +0.2%) US 10-year Treasury yield: near 4.19%, up a couple of basis points What’s moving markets All eyes on the US labor report: Today’s payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth will help shape expectations for the next steps in monetary policy. A steady hiring pace with contained wage pressures would support a “hold and assess” stance from the Fed, while any upside surprise in wages or core employment could nudge yields higher and firm the dollar. Trade policy watch: A potential legal decision related to tariffs is on investors’ radar. Any shift that lowers import costs could buoy risk appetite, particularly for import-reliant industries, while also complicating the rates outlook if the growth impulse and fiscal math are perceived to worsen. Rotation under the surface: Early-year flows show renewed interest in equities, with investors balancing quality growth exposures against more cyclical, trade-sensitive areas. Defensive pockets (health care, staples) continue to draw interest as a ballast against policy and macro uncertainty. Equities United States: Futures are little changed to slightly positive ahead of the data. A soft-landing narrative remains intact but fragile—labor and wages will be the tie-breaker. Within sectors, trade-sensitive consumer names and capital goods could react most to any tariff-related headlines, while rate-sensitive groups (housing, utilities) will take their cue from the move in yields. Europe: Regional indices are firmer, supported by a blend of defensives and economically sensitive names. A stable dollar and incremental improvement in external demand hopes are helping exporters. Financials remain leveraged to the path of long-end yields and curve shape. Asia: Japan led gains as chip-adjacent names and exporters extended momentum amid a firmer risk tone. Elsewhere in the region, sentiment remains selective: China-linked assets are weighed by ongoing property-sector restructuring efforts, while broader Asia benefits from steady global tech demand. Fixed income and FX Rates: Treasuries are marking time into the data with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.18%–4.20%. A hotter wage print or strong headline jobs number could push yields higher and steepen the curve; a downside surprise may extend the recent range trade and take some pressure off real rates. Dollar: The greenback is slightly firmer, reflecting cautious pre-data positioning. A benign payrolls outcome could cap further dollar gains, while any upside wage surprise would likely support the currency versus low-yielders. Commodities Energy: Crude is steady within recent ranges as supply headlines and risk sentiment offset one another. Demand signals from global PMI data and US inventory trends remain the key swing factors. Metals: Industrial metals are underpinned by consolidation talk in the mining space and hopes for eventual stabilization in construction demand, tempered by ongoing balance-sheet repair in parts of China’s property sector. Gold is little changed, with moves in real yields and the dollar in the driver’s seat. Themes to watch Tariffs and margins: Any reduction or uncertainty around import levies could influence input costs and pricing power across retail, apparel, home goods, machinery, and select technology hardware. Market reaction may be uneven, with beneficiaries on the cost side but potential push-pull on rates. Housing and rates: Policy efforts aimed at supporting mortgage markets can be a near-term tailwind for housing activity and related equities, but the durability of any boost will depend on the path of long-term yields. Electric vehicles and capital discipline: Slower EV adoption in select markets is prompting reassessments of production schedules and investment timelines across the auto-battery supply chain. China property stabilization: Restructuring steps remain in focus. The pace and scope of policy support will be key for credit sentiment, commodities demand, and regional risk assets. Scenario map for today’s US jobs data Stronger jobs and wages: Equities mixed (cyclicals up, rate-sensitives down), yields up, dollar firmer. In-line report with contained wages: Risk assets supported, yields range-bound, dollar stable to softer. Weaker jobs or softer wages: Duration bid (yields lower), dollar eases, equities lean positive for long-duration growth but may see some cyclical underperformance. The day ahead United States: Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings. Also watching any developments on trade policy/legal rulings and Fed-speak for rate-path hints. Corporate: M&A chatter in natural resources remains a swing factor for global miners; ongoing updates from autos/EV and housing-related firms may steer sector dispersion. Risk considerations Policy path ambiguity (monetary, fiscal, and trade) Geopolitical and supply-chain frictions affecting energy and freight Earnings revision risk if growth cools faster than expected Liquidity conditions as issuance and buybacks restart into earnings season Risk considerations Policy path ambiguity (monetary, fiscal, and trade) Geopolitical and supply-chain frictions affecting energy and freight Earnings revision risk if growth cools faster than expected Liquidity conditions as issuance and buybacks restart into earnings season Markets are marking time into the labor report and potential policy headlines. A balanced stance—maintaining quality exposure while keeping an eye on rate sensitivity and trade-linked cyclicals—remains prudent until the data reset the macro narrative. This commentary is for information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market levels are approximate and subject to change. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any

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Jan 06 – Daily Market Update

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Daily Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

06 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Global mood Risk appetite stayed resilient overnight. Asia extended its New Year upswing, led by Hong Kong, as investors rotated toward markets with lower valuations and improving growth signals. Europe opened slightly firmer, while US equity futures were broadly flat. The US dollar remains soft against major peers, a trend many investors expect could continue if global growth broadens and US rate differentials narrow. Crypto eased from recent highs, while industrial metals stayed supported. Macro and policy Washington signaled potential support for private-sector efforts to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector following the recent change in leadership. Markets are assessing implications for heavy crude supply, US Gulf refiners, and the medium‑term path of sanctions policy. Beijing introduced tighter controls on shipments to Japan with potential military end‑use, keeping attention on supply-chain security in electronics and advanced manufacturing. Investor surveys continue to show optimism on US equities after multiple strong years, with growing debate about market leadership and the durability of AI‑related trades. Equities Asia: Rotational buying into North Asia and Hong Kong persisted, aided by discounted valuations and policy hopes. Mainland China shares were mixed, with defensives and exporters relatively steady. Europe: Stocks edged higher at the open, with miners and industrials benefiting from firm metals prices. Energy shares were supported by geopolitics and crude’s bid. US: Futures were little changed. Semiconductors remain in focus after updates from leading chipmakers on data‑center roadmaps and AI hardware competition. Select analog and embedded-chip names outperformed after upbeat guidance. M&A chatter in enterprise software added to single‑name dispersion. Commodities Copper extended its rally after clearing a major psychological threshold on the global benchmark, supported by tight refined supply, robust power-transition demand expectations, and talk of potential US trade measures on refined metal. The move has favored diversified miners and select smelter plays, while raising input‑cost questions for capital goods makers. Crude traded with a modest bid as markets weighed Venezuela headlines alongside ongoing shipping and geopolitical risks. Product cracks and heavy‑sour differentials remain areas to watch if flows shift. Gold was steady, balancing lower real yields against firmer risk sentiment. FX and rates The dollar drifted lower on a trade‑weighted basis. Higher‑beta FX and select Asia EM currencies benefited from improved risk tone and carry. Sovereign yields were little changed in early trading. Primary markets were active: global dollar bond issuance just posted its busiest session in roughly a year, signaling healthy risk appetite and favorable funding windows. Digital assets Bitcoin eased modestly after recent gains. Broader crypto performance was mixed, with market attention rotating to liquidity conditions and regulatory developments. Key themes we’re watching Leadership and breadth: Can cyclicals and non‑US markets take the baton if mega‑cap tech momentum cools? AI supply chain: Intensifying competition in accelerated computing, with implications for GPU vendors, memory, networking, and data‑center power infrastructure. Commodities tightness: Copper’s squeeze highlights the interplay of trade policy, inventories, and capex cycles across miners and manufacturers. Policy and geopolitics: Energy policy toward Venezuela, Asia export controls, and shipping lanes remain key swing factors for commodities and global trade. Funding conditions: A robust start for primary debt markets supports the soft‑landing narrative; watch for duration appetite and pricing as issuance continues. The day ahead Data and events: Focus remains on global PMIs, US labor and inflation updates later this week, and central bank speakers for guidance on the timing and pace of policy easing. Earnings: Early-cycle updates from chipmakers, cloud/data‑center suppliers, and select consumer names will inform views on 2026 growth and margins. Portfolio considerations Diversification across regions and factors can help if leadership rotates. For equities, watch the balance between quality growth and cyclicals tied to industrial activity and metals. In credit, strong new-issue demand favors active selection on structure and covenants as spreads remain tight. Commodity users may consider hedging strategies given copper and energy volatility. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. Markets are volatile; past performance is not indicative of future results. Consider your objectives, risk tolerance, and seek professional advice before making investment decisions. Market levels referenced are indicative and subject to change. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. 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