11 February 2026 - Daily Market Updates

Markets Daily — Broad Market Update

Market snapshot (as of 6:06 a.m. ET)

US equity futures: flat to slightly lower (S&P 500 futures near 6961, -0.01%)
Europe: Stoxx 600 around 619.6, -0.22%
Asia: Hang Seng closed up roughly 0.3% near 27266
US dollar: softer by about 0.3% on a broad trade-weighted basis
Bitcoin: near $66600, down roughly 2.9%
US Treasuries: yields edging lower across the curve

Macro and policy

“Bad news is good news” is back in focus. Softer data have reinforced expectations that major central banks, led by the Fed, could begin easing later this year. Markets are leaning toward multiple rate cuts in 2026, though timing remains data-dependent.
Today’s US labor-market update will be pivotal. Traders will watch headline payrolls, the unemployment rate, participation, average hourly earnings, and—critically—revisions to prior months. A cooler set of numbers would bolster the case for earlier policy support; an upside surprise could push back those timelines.
Global growth signals are mixed: Europe continues to show uneven momentum, while Asia’s tech‑heavy markets have benefited from the weaker dollar and ongoing demand for semiconductors and AI infrastructure.

Equities

US: Index futures are steady as investors balance resilient mega-cap tech leadership with late‑cycle dynamics favoring quality balance sheets and cash flow. Rate‑sensitive segments tend to benefit when yields fall, while small caps remain more volatile around macro surprises.
Europe: Modest declines in early trade as investors digest earnings, cost‑reduction plans, and guidance resets. Defensive pockets (utilities, staples, healthcare) are finding support when bond yields ease, while cyclicals trade more on growth and China‑linked headlines.
Asia: Mixed session. Tech‑oriented markets continue to attract flows on AI hardware demand, while parts of Greater China remain range‑bound amid policy and property‑sector uncertainty.

Rates and credit

US Treasuries are firmer, with the belly of the curve leading on softer growth signals. A cool employment print would likely extend the rally and favor a bull‑steepening bias; a hotter release risks a reversal with front‑end yields most sensitive.
Investment‑grade credit spreads are broadly stable; high yield trades in a tight range but remains sensitive to earnings surprises and any pickup in default chatter.

Currencies

The dollar is easing for a fourth session as rate‑cut probabilities firm. A benign wage‑inflation number would likely keep the pressure on the greenback; stronger earnings growth could flip the script.
G10: Euro and pound are firmer against the dollar; yen steadies as US yields dip. Select commodity currencies are consolidating after recent gains.

Commodities and crypto

Oil: Range‑bound as supply risks and inventory dynamics offset growth concerns. Positioning remains cautious ahead of key macro prints.
Gold: Supported by lower real yields and a softer dollar; ETF flows remain the swing factor.
Digital assets: Bitcoin is retracing after a strong multi‑week run; intra‑day volatility remains elevated around liquidity pockets and risk sentiment.

Theme to watch: The AI dispersion

Markets are recalibrating winners and potential laggards from rapid AI adoption. Hardware beneficiaries and energy‑efficient infrastructure remain in focus, while parts of software, services, and select financial niches face headline‑driven volatility. Expect continued differentiation at the single‑name level as business models adapt and pricing power is tested.

Event radar

US labor market report: headline jobs, unemployment rate, participation, average hourly earnings, and prior‑month revisions
Central bank speakers and minutes across major economies
Corporate earnings: watch forward‑guidance language, cost discipline, AI investment pacing, and capital‑return updates

Trading lens: What could move markets today

Weaker‑than‑expected jobs/wage data: likely bullish duration, softer dollar, supportive for rate‑sensitives and quality growth
Stronger‑than‑expected jobs/wage data: potential bear‑flattening in rates, dollar bounce, factor rotation toward cyclical/value and financials
Big revisions: could meaningfully reshape the narrative even if the headline meets estimates

House view highlights

Macro remains a tug‑of‑war between cooling growth and prospective policy support. Near term, data beats/misses will likely drive sharp, factor‑level rotations more than index‑directional trends.
Stay selective within equities, with an emphasis on quality balance sheets and durable cash flow. In fixed income, carry remains attractive, but duration should be sized with event risk in mind.

Important information

This material is for information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or strategy. Markets are volatile and can move quickly around economic releases and company news. Consider your objectives, risk tolerance, and local regulations before making investment decisions. Market levels and performance figures referenced above are indicative and subject to change.

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