PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

February 18 – Daily Market Update

Leave a Comment / Uncategorized, Daily Market Updates, Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

18 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily A broad look at global markets and what’s driving sentiment today Market snapshot (as of 6:16 a.m. ET) S&P 500 futures: around 6897 (+0.5%) Stoxx Europe 600: roughly 627 (+1.0%) US 10-year Treasury yield: near 4.07% (+1 bp) Nikkei 225: about 57144 (+1.0%) Bitcoin: around $67300 (-0.5%) Global overview Equities are firmer to start the day as dip-buyers step back in following last week’s tech-led swings. Europe is extending gains with broad participation across cyclicals and financials, while Japan continues to outperform as earnings and corporate-reform themes underpin sentiment. In the US, index futures are stabilizing after a choppy stretch, with investors leaning into quality balance sheets and secular growers but staying selective in higher-duration, AI-exposed names. Rates, FX and credit US Treasuries are little changed, with the 10-year hovering just above 4%. Traders are balancing resilient growth data with a “higher-for-longer” policy backdrop, keeping the front end anchored and term premium in focus. The dollar is broadly steady versus major peers, with attention on upcoming US data and global PMIs. The euro and pound are range-bound; the yen remains sensitive to rate differentials and policy expectations. Credit markets remain orderly. Investment-grade spreads are steady, and primary issuance windows remain open, though pace and pricing discipline vary by sector. Commodities and digital assets Oil is trading in a tight band as supply headlines and demand indicators offset. Refined product cracks and inventory trends remain key near-term drivers. Precious metals are steady to slightly firmer ahead of central bank updates, with haven demand and rate expectations in the mix. Crypto is mixed, with bitcoin consolidating near the mid-$60Ks as flows rotate across large-cap tokens. Market drivers to watch Policy and central banks: Minutes from major central banks and speaker calendars may refine the timing and pace of any 2026 policy adjustments. Markets still expect patience, with inflation progress and labor rebalancing in focus. Earnings season: Another busy stretch across technology, industrials, consumer and energy. Guidance on capital spending, AI-related costs, and pricing power will likely steer factor performance and sector rotations. Macro data: Global flash PMIs, US housing trends, jobless claims, and inflation updates from key economies will shape growth and disinflation narratives. Positioning and flows: After recent factor whipsaws, watch for rotations between megacap growth, defensives and cyclicals. Options hedging, systematic re-risking, and buyback windows may amplify intraday moves. Equities: what’s working Quality bias: Solid balance sheets, consistent free cash flow and visible demand pipelines continue to command premiums. Select cyclicals: Industrials, travel/leisure and parts of energy show resilience where backlogs and pricing support margins. Tech dispersion: Ongoing divergence within semis, software and hardware. Execution and unit-economics matter more than topline AI narratives. Fixed income: key themes Range-bound yields: Barring a material surprise in growth or inflation, rates likely remain in a broad range as markets await clearer guidance. Carry over convexity: Investors continue to favor high-quality carry and laddered duration, while keeping dry powder for volatility-driven opportunities. Credit discipline: Spreads are fair to full in many segments; security selection and covenant quality remain in the spotlight. Portfolio considerations Keep diversification broad across styles and regions given cross-currents in policy, growth and earnings. Balance equity risk with duration that matches liability needs; consider barbell approaches in both equities (quality + selective cyclicals) and fixed income (short carry + intermediate core). Maintain a clear risk framework: use defined stop levels, hedge event risk selectively and review liquidity buffers. The day ahead Data: Global PMIs, US housing indicators and weekly labor figures over the coming sessions. Policy: Central bank minutes and appearances that could fine-tune rate-path expectations. Earnings: Updates across tech, consumer, industrials and energy—watch guidance on capex, AI spend, pricing and demand elasticity. Note: This commentary is a general market update for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Market levels are indicative and subject to change. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. 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Partial Capital Protection

Leave a Comment / Structured Products, Educational Blogs, Types of Structured Products / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Partial Capital Protection Partial Capital Protection: The Strategic Bridge Between Security and Growth In the current global financial landscape, investors often face a binary choice: accept the low yields of fixed deposits to ensure safety, or exposure their capital to the full volatility of equity markets to chase growth. However, sophisticated portfolio management rarely deals in absolutes. Partial Capital Protection offers a “middle path”—a structural innovation that allows investors to define their maximum risk tolerance while significantly amplifying their potential returns. This strategy is not merely about “hedging”; it is about optimizing the efficiency of your capital. By agreeing to risk a small, predefined portion of principal (typically 5% to 15%), investors can unlock participation rates that often exceed the performance of the underlying asset itself. In this in-depth guide, we analyze the mechanics, strategic trade-offs, and portfolio applications of partial capital protection. Table of Contents How does Partial Capital Protection function at a structural level? Why choose Partial Protection over 100% Capital Guarantees? Which investor profiles benefit most from this risk-reward profile? What asset classes and indices can be linked to these structures? How do interest rate cycles and volatility impact pricing and returns? Conclusion: Engineering a Resilient Portfolio How does Partial Capital Protection function at a structural level? At its core, a Partially Capital Protected Note (PCPN) is a hybrid financial instrument. It combines the safety of a fixed-income security with the upside potential of a derivative. The “thickness” of this strategy lies in how the internal funding is engineered. When you invest, your capital is essentially split into two distinct buckets: The Zero-Coupon Bond (The Anchor): The majority of your investment (e.g., 85-90%) is used to purchase a zero-coupon bond. Over the investment term, this bond accrues interest and matures at the “protected” value (e.g., returning 90% or 95% of your original capital). This provides the mathematical floor below which your investment cannot fall, barring issuer default. The Option Component (The Engine): The remaining capital is used to purchase call options on a specific underlying asset (like the S&P 500 or Euro Stoxx 50). Because you are accepting a small risk to your principal (Partial Protection), the issuer has more budget to purchase these options compared to a 100% protected product. Why choose Partial Protection over 100% Capital Guarantees? The decision to move from 100% protection to, say, 95% or 90% protection is fundamentally a decision about Opportunity Cost and Participation Rates. In a 100% Capital Protected product, the issuer must use almost all available funds to secure the bond floor, leaving very little cash to buy the growth options. This often results in a low “Participation Rate”—perhaps only capturing 40% or 50% of the market’s rise. If the market goes up 10%, you might only make 4%. However, by accepting just 5% risk (Partial Protection), you drastically increase the budget available for the option component. This creates a leverage effect. Instead of 40% participation, a partially protected note might offer 120% or 150% participation. Scenario A (100% Protection): Market rises 20% → Investor earns 8%. Scenario B (90% Protection): Market rises 20% → Investor earns 30% (assuming 150% participation). For professional investors, risking 10% of the principal to potentially triple the return profile is often considered a highly efficient trade. It transforms the investment from a defensive savings substitute into a genuine growth engine comparable to direct equity trading enhance Your Market Exposure Discover how soft protection floors can double your upside potential. View Investment Solutions Which investor profiles benefit most from this risk-reward profile? Partial Capital Protection is not a “one-size-fits-all” solution; it is engineered for specific stages of the wealth lifecycle and specific market views. The “Cash-Plus” Seeker: High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) holding large cash reserves often find that inflation erodes their purchasing power. They are willing to risk a small fraction (e.g., 5%) to aim for double-digit returns, which is impossible with standard deposits. The Tactical Hedger: Professional clients often use these structures to stay invested during uncertain times (e.g., elections or geopolitical tension). They know that exiting the market completely risks missing a rebound, but staying fully invested is too dangerous. Partial protection offers the mathematical middle ground. The Transitioning Investor: For clients moving from a savings-only mindset to an investment mindset, the leap to 100% risk is terrifying. Partial protection acts as a psychological and financial bridge, allowing them to experience global equities with a defined safety net. What asset classes and indices can be linked to these structures? One of the most powerful features of Partial Capital Protection is its versatility. Because the protection is derived from the bond component, the growth component can be linked to almost any liquid asset class. Global Indices: The most common underlying assets are major indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, or Nikkei 225. These offer broad diversification. Thematic Baskets: Investors can target niche growth areas without taking on stock-specific risk. For example, a note could be linked to an “AI & Robotics” basket. If the sector crashes, your capital is protected. If it booms, you participate. Commodities & Currencies: For those looking to hedge against inflation or currency devaluation, notes can be linked to the price of Gold, Oil, or specific currency pairs available via our trading products. How do interest rate cycles and volatility impact pricing and returns? Understanding the macroeconomic environment is crucial for timing entry into these products. Two main factors drive the attractiveness of Partial Capital Protection: Interest Rates: These products generally offer better terms in a high-interest-rate environment. When rates are high, the zero-coupon bond (the safety floor) costs less to buy. This leaves a larger surplus of cash to buy the growth options, allowing issuers to offer higher participation rates or higher protection levels. Volatility: High market volatility usually makes options more expensive (due to higher premiums). However, for a partial protection investor, volatility can be a double-edged sword. While it makes the “upside” costlier to buy, it also increases the chance of the

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February 17 – Daily Market Update

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Daily Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

17 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily | Broad Market Update US equity futures point lower with technology leading declines as Wall Street returns from the holiday. European shares are broadly flat, while trading in Asia was mixed and thinned by Lunar New Year closures. Precious metals are softer, crude is edging down, and digital assets are under pressure. Market snapshot (as of 06:12 am ET; levels subject to change) Nasdaq 100 Futures: 24617.25 (-0.75%) Stoxx Europe 600: 618.46 (-0.01%) Nikkei 225: 56566.49 (-0.42%) Spot Gold: 4922.87 (-1.39%) Bitcoin: 67837.88 (-1.45%) Global macro and policy United Kingdom: The latest labor figures showed unemployment ticking up and pay growth easing. Interest-rate markets increased expectations for additional Bank of England cuts by year-end, weighing modestly on sterling and supporting gilts. Europe: Policymakers continue to discuss ways to deepen the euro’s global footprint. While largely a long-run initiative, it underscores a push to strengthen financial resilience and liquidity in euro-denominated markets. Japan: Government bond yields fell further following a well-received auction, extending the recent rally and reinforcing a lower-volatility backdrop for local rates. Commodities and geopolitics: Oil prices drifted lower as traders monitored diplomatic developments in the Middle East alongside steady supply dynamics. Equities: what’s moving AI-driven swings continue to ripple across sectors. Recent headlines have triggered broad, sometimes indiscriminate selling in industries perceived as vulnerable to automation. That has been followed by sharp rebounds as investors differentiate likely winners from names with more durable cash flows. Expect elevated dispersion and ongoing factor rotations. Corporate highlights: Leisure and travel: A major cruise operator advanced in early trading amid reports of an activist building a significant stake. Media and entertainment: Large-cap media names moved on talk that deal discussions could be revisited after a revised proposal. Health care: A diversified life-sciences company reportedly neared a multibillion-dollar purchase of a medical-technology firm; potential knock-on effects were seen across diagnostics peers. Japan financials: Shares in a leading brokerage’s parent slipped after local regulators began a probe into the unit’s activities. Shipping and logistics: Container shipping rallied after a takeover agreement valued a target at roughly $4.2 billion. Materials: Gold and silver miners traded lower alongside weakness in underlying metals. Earnings on deck: Medtronic (pre-market); Palo Alto Networks and Cadence Design Systems (after the bell). Investors will focus on guidance quality, margin resilience, and any commentary on demand normalisation into mid-year. Rates, FX and credit US Treasuries: Yields are steady to slightly lower as participants balance slower inflation progress with moderating growth signals. Curve shape remains sensitive to incoming data and central bank communications. Europe rates: Gilt yields fell on softer UK labor momentum; bunds were little changed in early dealings. Foreign exchange: The dollar is mixed. Sterling eased on shifting BoE expectations; the euro was broadly stable; the yen firmed modestly in tandem with the JGB rally. Cross-asset volatility remains below recent peaks but above last year’s lows. Commodities and digital assets Gold slipped as real yields firmed and risk sentiment stabilized after last week’s swings. Industrial metals remain underpinned by ongoing interest in energy transition supply chains, even as short-term positioning looks crowded. Crude benchmarks softened amid headline risk and range-bound fundamentals. Bitcoin traded lower, mirroring broader risk-on/risk-off dynamics and profit-taking after recent gains. The takeaway Markets are navigating a push-pull between resilient earnings leadership and periodic de-risking tied to AI narratives, M&A headlines and evolving central bank paths. Expect choppy sessions, higher dispersion within sectors, and a renewed emphasis on balance-sheet strength and pricing power. Near term, watch labor and inflation prints in major economies, guidance from today’s earnings slate, and any signals on policy timing from central bank speakers. House view for clients Maintain diversified exposure across regions and styles, with an eye on quality balance sheets and consistent free-cash-flow generation. Use volatility to rebalance toward long-term targets; consider staggered entry points rather than single-date allocation shifts. Ensure risk controls are in place around event-heavy periods. Important information This material is a general market update for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Market data are indicative and subject to change. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. February 17 – Daily Market Update February 17, 2026 17 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily |… Read More February 16 – Daily Market Update February 16, 2026 16 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily —… Read More February 13 – Daily Market Update February 13, 2026 13 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily |… Read More February 12 – Daily Market Update February 12, 2026 12 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily —… Read More February 11 – Daily Market Update February 11, 2026 11 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily —… Read More February

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PEG ratio

Leave a Comment / Deliverable Equities, Educational Blogs, Stock Valuations / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

PEG Ratio The Advanced Metric for Finding Growth at a Reasonable Price In the fast-paced world of global equities, relying solely on the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio can sometimes lead investors into “value traps”—stocks that appear cheap but have poor growth prospects. For investors in the UAE and beyond, distinguishing between a genuine bargain and a stagnant company is critical. This is where the Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) ratio becomes an essential tool. By factoring in expected earnings growth, the PEG ratio provides a more three-dimensional view of a company’s valuation, helping you identify opportunities that offer the perfect balance of value and potential, especially when analyzing volatile Global Stocks (Non-US) markets. Table of Contents What is the PEG Ratio and how does it differ from the P/E Ratio? How do you calculate the PEG Ratio correctly? What is considered a “Good” PEG Ratio for investors? Why is the PEG Ratio critical for Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies? What are the limitations of using the PEG Ratio? How does the PEG Ratio vary across different sectors? Conclusion What is the PEG Ratio and how does it differ from the P/E Ratio? While the traditional P/E ratio tells you how much you are paying for current earnings, it fails to account for how fast those earnings are growing. The PEG ratio fixes this blind spot by dividing the P/E ratio by the company’s expected earnings growth rate. Think of the P/E ratio as a snapshot of today’s price, whereas the PEG ratio is a roadmap of future potential. For example, a high-growth technology stock might have a high P/E of 30, which looks expensive. However, if that company is growing its earnings at 30% per year, its PEG ratio would be 1.0, suggesting it might actually be fairly valued. This nuance is why sophisticated traders often look beyond basic multiples when analyzing US Stocks & ETFs or high-flying tech giants. How do you calculate the PEG Ratio correctly? The formula for the PEG ratio is deceptively simple, but the quality of the input data matters immensely.Formula: PEG Ratio = (P/E Ratio) / (Earnings Growth Rate) To get an accurate figure, you first determine the P/E ratio by dividing the stock price by its Earnings Per Share (EPS). Then, you divide that result by the projected annual EPS growth rate. Investors often face a choice: should they use trailing historical growth or forward-looking estimates? For markets that price in the future—like those accessible through our Deliverable Equity services—using the forward growth estimate (typically for the next 1-3 years) is often more effective. This forward-looking approach aligns better with dynamic market conditions than relying on past performance alone. Unlock Global Market Access Access over 25 global exchanges and apply your valuation strategies on top-tier US and Asian equities. Open An Account What is considered a “Good” PEG Ratio for investors? Interpretation of the PEG ratio often follows a standard rule of thumb, famously popularized by legendary investor Peter Lynch: PEG = 1.0: The stock is considered fairly valued. The market is paying a multiple exactly in line with the growth rate. PEG < 1.0: The stock may be undervalued. This suggests you are paying less for future growth, which is often a “buy” signal for value-conscious investors. PEG > 1.0: The stock may be overvalued. The price is outpacing the company’s expected growth. However, context is vital. In today’s premium valuation environment, especially within the Wealth Management space, high-quality companies with deep “moats” often trade at PEG ratios between 1.5 and 2.0. Blindly rejecting anything over 1.0 could mean missing out on industry leaders that compound wealth over decades. Why is the PEG Ratio critical for Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies? The PEG ratio is the heartbeat of the Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) strategy. GARP investors seek the “sweet spot” between pure value investing (which often targets slow-growth firms) and pure growth investing (which can be risky and expensive). By using the PEG ratio as a filter, you can identify companies that have robust growth engines but haven’t yet been bid up to astronomical levels by the hype cycle. This disciplined approach is particularly useful when constructing a diversified portfolio, ensuring you aren’t overpaying for the promise of future returns. What are the limitations of using the PEG Ratio? No single metric is a magic bullet. The PEG ratio has specific limitations that every prudent investor should acknowledge: Reliance on Estimates: The “G” (Growth) component relies on analyst forecasts. If these estimates are overly optimistic, the stock might appear cheaper than it really is. Dividend Neglect: The standard PEG calculation often ignores dividend income. For Bond and Debentures or high-yield utility stocks, the PEG ratio might unfairly penalize the company because a significant portion of the return comes from cash payouts, not just share price growth. Mature Companies: It is less effective for evaluating mature, low-growth companies (like established banks or utilities) where stability and dividends are more important than rapid earnings expansion. Diversify Your Portfolio Go Beyond Equities Hedge your equity risks and explore opportunities in commodities and currencies with our advanced derivatives platforms. Explore Futures & Options How does the PEG Ratio vary across different sectors? Comparing the PEG ratio of a software company to an oil producer is like comparing apples to oranges. Different sectors have different capital requirements and growth profiles. Technology & Biotech: These sectors typically command higher PEG ratios because investors are willing to pay a premium for innovation and scalability. A PEG of 1.5 might be considered “cheap” for a high-flying tech stock. Cyclicals & Industrials: Sectors like energy or manufacturing often trade at lower PEG ratios. Here, investors should be cautious; a very low PEG might signal that the market expects earnings to collapse in the next cycle, known as a “value trap.” Financials: When analyzing banks or insurance firms using our daily Market Updates , remember that these institutions often grow in line with the broader economy. A PEG

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February 16 – Daily Market Update

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Daily Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

16 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily — Broad Market Briefing As of 6:50 a.m. ET Equities: European benchmarks edged higher, with the region-wide gauge hovering near 620, up roughly 0.3%. Currencies: The US dollar index was marginally firmer, near 1,182 on a broad trade-weighted basis. Commodities: WTI crude traded just under $63, slightly higher on the session; gold eased about 0.7%. Digital assets: Bitcoin hovered around $68.6k, down modestly. Macro and market context Risk tone: Global equities started the week on a constructive note despite thin liquidity across parts of Asia due to Lunar New Year holidays and North American holiday closures. Participation is lighter, but dip-buying interest remains evident in select tech, industrials and consumer names. Rates backdrop: After a strong week for sovereign bonds driven by renewed wagers on policy easing later this year, traders are now focused on a dense run of growth and inflation data that could recalibrate the path of rate expectations. AI narrative, two-way risk: Markets continue to grapple with the balance between productivity upside from artificial intelligence and the near-term drag from heavy capital outlays. That tension is visible in equity factor performance (infrastructure and security favored over certain application layers) and in credit markets, where hedging demand has picked up around large capex spenders. Expect dispersion within tech to remain elevated. Overnight movers and themes Europe: Cyclical and quality-growth pockets led early gains. Select materials shares underperformed after broker actions, while parts of the UK small/mid-cap software space lagged following deal headlines that removed a potential bid premium. Defensive sectors were mixed as bond yields steadied. Energy and commodities: Oil was broadly steady as supply discipline and a measured demand outlook offset each other; gold softened alongside a slightly firmer dollar. Industrial metals remained rangebound pending fresh China activity signals. FX: The dollar ticked higher against a basket of majors, while several high-carry emerging-market currencies were relatively resilient amid stable commodity prices and subdued volatility. The week ahead — key indicators and events Monday: North America: US markets closed for Presidents’ Day; Canada closed for Family Day. Latin America: Brazil closed for Carnival (through Feb. 17). Asia: Several markets closed or operating on shortened schedules for Lunar New Year. Tuesday: Europe: Germany’s inflation updates and sentiment surveys; UK labor market figures. US: Regional manufacturing pulse. Asia: Mainland China closed for Lunar New Year. Wednesday: Europe/Asia: France inflation; Japan trade balance. UK: CPI inflation. US: Housing starts, industrial production, leading indicators, core durable goods. Earnings: Mix of global miners, ratings/analytics, and chip-related bellwethers. Thursday: Europe: Euro-area consumer confidence. US: Weekly jobless claims, advanced indicators, trade, pending home sales. Earnings: Large-cap retail, diversified industrials, and resources. Friday: Europe/Asia: Euro-area PMIs, Japan CPI, UK retail sales. North America: Canada retail sales; US personal income/spending with PCE inflation, GDP update, new home sales, manufacturing PMI, and consumer sentiment. Policy watch: US legal and policy developments remain on the radar for potential implications to trade and tariff expectations. Strategy watch — what we’re tracking Tech dispersion: Investors continue to differentiate between AI “enablers” (compute, data infrastructure, observability, cybersecurity, cloud platforms) and areas where automation may compress pricing power. Expect continued rotation within software and services as spending priorities evolve. Credit hedging: As capex cycles swell at mega-cap platforms and select hyperscale-adjacent players, appetite for downside protection in credit has increased. Monitor spreads and hedging costs as leading indicators of stress or confidence in return on investment. Rates and duration: A heavy slate of growth and inflation data could challenge last week’s bond rally. A hotter PCE or firm PMIs would likely nudge front-end yields higher; a downside surprise would reinforce soft-landing hopes. FX and EM: Carry and commodity support have steadied several emerging currencies relative to G-7 peers. Watch terms-of-trade shifts if oil and base metals break out of recent ranges. Quick take by asset class Equities: Breadth remains a focal point. Participation outside of the largest tech names has improved in fits and starts, but durability likely hinges on confirmation from earnings revisions and macro surprises. Fixed income: The balance between disinflation progress and growth resilience remains tight. The next PCE print is pivotal for validating or challenging current rate-cut timelines. Commodities: Crude is pinned between disciplined supply and a cautious demand outlook; volatility may rise around inventory data and growth prints. Precious metals remain sensitive to real yields and the dollar. Crypto: Consolidation persists after a strong multi-month run; flows and regulatory headlines remain key swing factors. Housekeeping and market closures US: Closed today for Presidents’ Day. Canada: Closed today for Family Day. Asia: Multiple markets closed or on reduced hours for Lunar New Year through midweek. Brazil: Markets closed for Carnival through Feb. 17. Key risks to monitor Data surprises on inflation and growth that shift the policy path. Earnings guidance tied to AI spending payback periods. Geopolitics and trade policy developments. Liquidity pockets around holiday-thinned sessions. This material is a general market update for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments

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Spot vs Forward Rates

Leave a Comment / Educational Blogs, Currency Concepts, Spot FX and CFDs / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Spot Vs Forward Rates Understanding Spot vs. Forward Rates In the fast-paced world of global finance, currency fluctuations can either be a source of significant profit or a substantial risk to your capital. For investors and businesses operating across international borders, mastering the mechanics of foreign exchange (FX) is essential. Two of the most fundamental concepts in this arena are Spot Rates and Forward Rates. While they both represent the value of one currency against another, they serve vastly different purposes in a diversified portfolio. Whether you are looking to execute immediate transactions or hedge against future volatility, understanding these rates is the first step toward sophisticated wealth management and strategic risk management. This guide breaks down these concepts for the discerning investor. Table of Contents What Exactly Is a Spot Rate in the Foreign Exchange Market? How Does a Forward Rate Differ from a Spot Rate? What Factors Determine the Pricing of a Forward Rate? When Should an Investor Prioritize Spot Transactions Over Forward Contracts? How Do Forward Rates Function as a Tool for Risk Hedging? Can Speculators Profit from the Spread Between Spot and Forward Rates? Conclusion: Integrating FX Rates into Your Investment Strategy What Exactly Is a Spot Rate in the Foreign Exchange Market? The spot rate is the current market price at which a currency pair can be bought or sold for immediate delivery. In the global Forex market, “immediate” typically refers to a “T+2” settlement period—meaning the transaction is finalized two business days after the trade date. The spot rate represents the real-time equilibrium between supply and demand. It is influenced by instantaneous macroeconomic data, geopolitical shifts, and central bank announcements. For retail and professional investors alike, the spot rate is the most transparent reflection of a currency’s value at any given second. When you see a currency pair quoted on a financial news ticker, you are looking at the spot rate. How Does a Forward Rate Differ from a Spot Rate? While the spot rate deals with the “now,” the forward rate is a contractual price agreed upon today for a transaction that will occur at a specific future date. This date could be 30, 60, 90 days, or even a year into the future. The primary distinction lies in the timing of the delivery and the certainty of the price. In a spot transaction, you accept the market price as it exists today. In a forward contract, you “lock in” an exchange rate now to protect yourself from the uncertainty of where the spot rate might be when the actual exchange of funds is required. This is particularly vital for those managing institutional services where large-scale future cash flows must be protected from currency depreciation. What Factors Determine the Pricing of a Forward Rate? A common misconception is that the forward rate is a prediction of where the spot rate will be in the future. In reality, forward rates are calculated based on the Interest Rate Differential between the two currencies involved. This calculation is rooted in the “Cost of Carry” model. If one currency has a higher interest rate than the other, it will typically trade at a “forward discount” to prevent arbitrage. Conversely, the currency with the lower interest rate will trade at a “forward premium.” Factors such as inflation expectations and the duration of the contract also play minor roles, but the interest rate policies of central banks remain the dominant force in determining the gap between the spot and forward price. Consult with our experts to navigate complex FX markets. Explore our diverse range of global bonds available for trading. Explore Our Services When Should an Investor Prioritize Spot Transactions Over Forward Contracts? Choosing between spot and forward rates depends entirely on your liquidity needs and your outlook on market volatility. Investors should prioritize spot transactions when they require immediate liquidity or when they believe the local currency will strengthen in the short term. Spot trades are also preferred by traders who utilize CFD trading to capitalize on intraday price movements without owning the underlying asset. Because spot transactions do not involve the “premium” often associated with forward contracts, they are generally more cost-effective for one-off payments or immediate asset acquisitions. How Do Forward Rates Function as a Tool for Risk Hedging? For corporations and long-term investors, the forward rate is less about profit and more about insurance. This process is known as “hedging.” Imagine a company based in the UAE that expects a large payment in Euros six months from now. If the Euro weakens against the Dirham during those six months, the company will receive less value. By entering into a forward contract at today’s forward rate, the company eliminates this “exchange rate risk.” They know exactly how much they will receive, regardless of how the market fluctuates. This stability is a cornerstone of sophisticated structured notes and corporate treasury operations. Can Speculators Profit from the Spread Between Spot and Forward Rates? Yes, professional traders often engage in “Carry Trades” or arbitrage strategies based on the relationship between these two rates. In a carry trade, an investor borrows money in a currency with a low interest rate (and thus a lower spot cost) and invests it in a currency with a higher interest rate. While this can be lucrative, it is not without risk. If the spot rate moves drastically against the investor, the losses can exceed the interest earned. This level of trading requires access to comprehensive equities and derivatives markets and a deep understanding of how global monetary policy shifts can cause the spot and forward rates to converge or diverge unexpectedly. Ready to Enter Global Markets? Partner with a regulated, trusted DIFC broker. Contact Us Today Conclusion: Integrating FX Rates into Your Investment Strategy Understanding the nuance between spot and forward rates is a hallmark of an informed investor. The spot rate offers a window into the current pulse of the global economy, providing the price for immediate action. In contrast, the forward

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Weekly Global Market News – february Week 3

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Weekly Global Market Update / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Weekly Global Market News – February -Week 3 A holiday-shortened start and Asia’s festive calendar will thin liquidity early in the week, but the macro and earnings flow intensifies from Tuesday onward. Headline drivers include a heavy slate of inflation prints across advanced economies, the latest read on the US policy outlook via FOMC minutes, flash PMIs on Friday, and China’s loan prime rate decision. On the corporate side, global miners dominate with results that will ripple across iron ore, copper, and gold, while selected tech, consumer, industrials, and energy names provide important micro clues on demand, pricing power, and capital allocation. Market conditions and closures US: Presidents’ Day on Monday; cash equities, Treasuries, and futures observe holiday hours. Latin America: Brazil and Argentina are closed Monday and Tuesday for Carnival. Asia: Lunar New Year-related closures keep mainland China shut most of the week; Hong Kong runs a half-day Monday then resumes Friday. South Korea observes Seollal for three days. Key themes to watch 1.Inflation pulse and policy path UK CPI and PPI (Wed): Services inflation stickiness vs base effects is central to the BoE’s cut timeline. A firm print would support front-end gilt yields and underpin GBP into week’s end retail sales. Euro area components (Germany, France; Tue/Wed): January readings help refine the ECB’s handoff from disinflation to timing cuts in H2. Japan CPI (Fri) and Q4 GDP (Mon): A firm core outcome and resilient growth bolster the case for the BoJ’s eventual policy normalization; watch JGB term premium and yen sensitivity. Canada CPI (Tue): Core measures and shelter components are pivotal for the BoC’s mid-year easing narrative. Germany PPI (Fri): Producer prices continue to guide margin dynamics and potential disinflation carry-through. 2. Central bank signals FOMC minutes (Wed): Market focus on balance between patience and data dependence on cuts. Any color on QT glidepath and inflation risk asymmetry will steer the front end of the US curve and the dollar. China LPR decision (Fri): With growth support in focus, watch for a targeted easing bias; credit impulse implications are key for copper, iron ore, and China-sensitive equities. 3. Global growth nowcast Flash PMIs (Fri, US/UK/Eurozone/Japan/others): Manufacturing stabilization vs services resilience; new orders and prices-paid subindices will be read for margin and inventory signals. UK retail sales and public finances (Fri): Consumption breadth after the holiday period; implications for domestic cyclicals and gilts. EU industrial production (Mon) and construction output (Thu): Capex temperature check across the bloc. 4. Earnings: Miners lead, with cross-asset read-throughs Diversified miners: BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American, Antofagasta, Newmont, Kinross, Pan African Resources (Tue–Fri). Focus on: Price decks and sensitivity to iron ore, copper, and gold. Capex discipline vs growth optionality; decarbonization and permitting updates. Unit costs, FX tailwinds, logistics and energy inputs. Dividend and buyback frameworks amid volatile commodity strips. Energy: Occidental, Repsol (Thu). Watch capex, shale productivity, free cash flow allocation, and commentary on supply discipline. Industrials/building materials: CRH, Deere & Co, Airbus, Mondi, Renault (Thu). Construction volumes, backlogs, and pricing carry; aero supply chain cadence. Consumer and staples: Walmart, Nestlé, Carrefour, Pernod Ricard, Moncler, InterContinental Hotels, Live Nation (Tue–Thu). Volumes vs price/mix, private-label trade-up/down, travel and events momentum, China reopening after holidays. Tech and payments-adjacent: Palo Alto Networks, Analog Devices, Cadence, eBay, DoorDash, Etsy, Akamai (Tue–Thu). Cybersecurity budget resilience, AI hardware cycle timing, inventory normalization in semis, e-commerce take rates and cost discipline. Financials and utilities/insurance: Zurich Insurance, Centrica, Consolidated Edison, Aegon, Suncorp (Wed–Thu). Cat losses, solvency metrics, rate sensitivity, retail energy margins. Asset-class playbook FX USD: Range-bound into Wednesday’s minutes; upside risks if growth momentum remains firm. GBP: Two-way risk around CPI/retail sales; firmer data would support sterling and front-end gilt yields. JPY: Sensitive to Japan CPI/GDP; hawkish BoJ expectations could re-steepen JGBs and buoy yen. CAD: CPI surprise steers BoC cut probabilities; watch CAD crosses for volatility. AUD: Labor force data (Thu) in focus; a firm print tempers early cuts pricing. CNH: Holiday-thinned flows; LPR bias and any growth guidance could set the tone into month-end. Rates US: Curve dynamics hinge on minutes and Friday’s GDP update; stickier inflation favors bear-flattener risk. UK: Gilts vulnerable to services CPI; pay attention to breakevens. Euro area: Bunds track core inflation and PMIs; construction/IP softness still a support tailwind. Japan: JGB term premium sensitive to CPI and policy normalization chatter. Equities Expect dispersion: commodity producers, AI-adjacent names, and defensives may decouple. Low Monday liquidity can amplify moves in Europe; watch for gap risk when US reopens Tuesday. Commodities Iron ore and copper: Guided by miners’ capex/cost outlooks and China tone post-holidays. Gold: Real-yield path and central bank demand remain supportive on dips. Oil: Macro growth tone and inventory data to drive spreads; energy equities guided by capital return commentary. Event radar India’s AI Impact Summit in New Delhi (Mon–Fri): High-profile tech and industry leaders discuss AI deployment and infrastructure. Semis, hyperscale capex, and enterprise software guidance will be parsed for spend intentions and timelines. Political and geopolitical watch: Developments in the Middle East and broader US policy headlines may add episodic risk to energy and haven flows. The week’s calendar at a glance Monday Market closures: US (Presidents’ Day), Brazil and Argentina (Carnival), South Korea (Seollal), China (Lunar New Year week), Hong Kong (half-day). Data: EU industrial production (Dec), India WPI (Jan); Japan and Switzerland Q4 GDP first estimates; UK Rightmove house prices (Feb). Earnings: Bridgestone (FY). Tuesday Data: Canada CPI (Jan); Germany CPI/HICP (Jan); UK labor market stats, flash productivity (Q4), ONS housebuilding; US Conference Board Employment Trends Index. Earnings: Antofagasta (FY), BHP (HY), Cadence Design Systems (Q4/FY), Caesars Entertainment (Q4/FY), Carrefour (FY), DTE Energy (Q4/FY), Fluor (Q4/FY), Genuine Parts (Q4/FY), Havas (FY), InterContinental Hotels (FY), Kenvue (Q4/FY), Kerry Group (FY), Medtronic (Q3), Palo Alto Networks (Q2), Vulcan Materials (Q4/FY). Wednesday Data: France CPI (Jan); Germany labor market (Q4); UK CPI and PPI (Jan), UK house price indices and private rents (Feb). Central banks: FOMC minutes (Jan meeting). Earnings: Analog Devices (Q1), BAE Systems (FY), Celanese (Q4/FY), Conduit Re (FY),

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February 13 – Daily Market Update

Leave a Comment / Daily Market Updates, Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

13 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily | Broad Market Update Overview Global markets are treading cautiously ahead of a key US inflation print. US equity futures are slightly lower, European stocks are softer, and the dollar is a touch firmer. Asian trading was mixed, with Hong Kong underperforming. Bond markets are steady to marginally weaker as traders balance hopes for rate cuts later this year against signs that underlying price pressures may prove stickier than previously assumed. Crypto assets are firmer, and select commodity prices are consolidating. Snapshot (approximate, 06:20 ET) US equity futures: modestly lower (around -0.3%) Europe: Stoxx 600 slightly in the red (about -0.3%) US dollar: marginally stronger (roughly +0.1% on a broad index) Asia: Hong Kong notably weaker (down nearly 1.7%) Bitcoin: higher (around +1.5%–2%) What’s driving markets All eyes on inflation: Today’s US consumer price reading is poised to set the near-term tone for rates and risk assets. An upside surprise could challenge the consensus for multiple rate cuts later this year, while a softer print would likely revive the “soft-landing” narrative. Rates debate: Front-end yields remain sensitive to data surprises. While markets still discount rate reductions this year, the path and timing remain in flux amid resilient growth and evidence of lingering services inflation. Dollar bid, commodities mixed: The greenback’s mild strength reflects pre-data caution. Base metals are consolidating amid shifting policy headlines, while energy prices are range-bound as supply dynamics offset demand questions. AI jitters cool, but rotations persist: After a bout of AI-driven volatility and sharp factor rotations, equity markets stabilized. Still, investor positioning remains highly responsive to headlines about automation and productivity, with periodic knock-on effects across software, logistics, financial services, and professional industries. Equities US: The tape is balanced ahead of the data. Semiconductor equipment names have benefited from constructive guidance tied to capacity and AI-related demand. By contrast, some ad-driven internet platforms have faced pressure on softer revenue commentary, while select streaming and connected-TV names saw relief on better-than-feared results. An EV manufacturer’s progress toward profitability has supported sentiment in that niche. Europe: Consumer and luxury-linked names lagged after softer sales updates in select categories, reinforcing a defensive tone. Broader indices remain range-bound as investors await US macro catalysts. Asia: Hong Kong underperformed on renewed growth concerns, while other regional markets were mixed as earnings season and global rate expectations guided flows. Fixed income and FX Treasuries: Yields are little changed to slightly higher into the CPI release. The curve remains in a holding pattern, with two- to five-year maturities most sensitive to any re-pricing of the Fed path. Global bonds: Core European yields track US moves; peripheral spreads are stable. Credit markets remain orderly, though bid-offer typically widens around major data. FX: The dollar firmed modestly on event risk hedging. High-beta and cyclical currencies are range-trading; the yen remains driven by relative policy expectations and US yield direction. Commodities and crypto Commodities: Industrial metals are steady to softer amid trade-policy headlines and growth worries. Oil holds in a tight band as supply risks offset macro caution. Gold is little changed, reflecting the push-pull between real yields and hedging demand. Digital assets: Crypto benchmarks are firmer after recent volatility. Institutional interest and flows remain supportive, but positioning is highly reactive to macro data and regulatory developments. Primary markets and corporate flow New issuance: Signs of select US IPO postponements and resized offerings reflect a more discerning tone on valuations and near-term demand. Seasoned issuers in investment-grade and high yield continue to access markets, but windows may narrow around data prints. Earnings pulse: Reporting volume is slowing into the long weekend. A handful of consumer and healthcare names report before the open; guidance and margin commentary remain the key swing factors for single-stock moves. The day ahead — key things to watch US CPI: Core services momentum, shelter disinflation pace, and goods pricing will be dissected for clues on the durability of progress toward target. Rate expectations: Watch front-end yields, Fed-dated OIS, and terminal-rate pricing post-release. Equity leadership: Semis and AI-adjacent beneficiaries versus defensives; any rotation after the data could set the tone into month-end. Liquidity: Expect wider spreads and quicker price gaps around the print; levels may normalize into the afternoon if outcomes meet consensus. Risk considerations Event risk: Macro surprises can prompt outsized moves in rates, FX, and cyclicals. Hedging and disciplined risk limits are advisable around releases. Policy and trade: Shifts in tariff frameworks and industrial policy can influence metals, industrials, and global supply-chain plays. Earnings and guidance: With macro uncertainty elevated, forward guidance remains a primary driver of dispersion across sectors. This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets are volatile and may move quickly following economic data or policy developments. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and

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Futures Pricing And Valuation

Leave a Comment / Educational Blogs, Exchange Traded Derivatives, Futures Contracts / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Futures Pricing And Valuation Table of Contents What is the Fundamental Difference Between Futures Pricing and Valuation? How is the ‘Fair Value’ of a Futures Contract Calculated? What Do ‘Contango’ and ‘Backwardation’ Tell Us About Market Sentiment? How Does Daily ‘Mark-to-Market’ Valuation Impact My Account? Can Arbitrage Opportunities Arise from Pricing Inefficiencies? Conclusion What is the Fundamental Difference Between Futures Pricing and Valuation? While often used interchangeably in casual conversation, pricing and valuation represent two distinct concepts in the derivatives market. Futures pricing refers to the current market price at which a contract trades on an exchange. This price is determined by the interaction of supply and demand in real-time, reflecting the aggregate consensus of buyers and sellers regarding the future value of an underlying asset. It is dynamic, fluctuating constantly throughout the trading day as new information enters the market. Valuation, on the other hand, is a theoretical or mathematical assessment of what that contract should be worth based on specific economic factors. This is often referred to as “Fair Value.” Professional traders and institutional investors compare the theoretical valuation against the actual market price to identify discrepancies. If the market price deviates significantly from the fair value, it may signal an overbought or oversold condition, providing a potential entry or exit point. Understanding this distinction is crucial for anyone navigating futures fundamentals, as it shifts the focus from simple speculation to calculated risk assessment. How is the ‘Fair Value’ of a Futures Contract Calculated? The calculation of fair value relies heavily on the Cost of Carry model. This model assumes that the futures price should theoretically equal the spot price of the underlying asset plus the cost of holding that asset until the contract’s expiration date. The formula generally accounts for three primary components: Spot Price: The current market price of the asset (e.g., Gold, S&P 500, or Crude Oil). Financing Costs (Interest): The cost of borrowing capital to purchase the underlying asset. Storage or Carrying Costs: Relevant for commodities like oil or wheat, where physical storage incurs fees. Income (Dividends or Yields): Any income generated by the asset (such as stock dividends) is subtracted, as holding a futures contract typically does not entitle the holder to these payouts. For example, when trading equity indices, the fair value is the spot price plus interest, minus expected dividends. If the futures price trades significantly higher than this calculated fair value, the market is pricing in a premium, potentially due to bullish sentiment or higher expected interest rates. Conversely, a price below fair value might indicate bearish sentiment. Master Global Markets with Advanced Tools Access top-tier liquidity and diverse asset classes Explore Futures & Options Products What Do ‘Contango’ and ‘Backwardation’ Tell Us About Market Sentiment? The relationship between the spot price and the futures price creates a “forward curve,” and the shape of this curve offers critical insights into market conditions. Contango: This occurs when the futures price is higher than the spot price. This is considered the “normal” market structure for non-perishable commodities because of the Cost of Carry (storage and interest). However, a steep contango curve can indicate that the market expects the asset’s price to rise significantly in the future. Backwardation: This is the opposite scenario, where the futures price is lower than the spot price. This is often a signal of immediate shortage or high demand for the physical asset now. For instance, if there is a supply disruption in the oil market, refiners might pay a premium for immediate delivery, pushing spot prices above future delivery prices.Recognizing these states is essential when understanding futures contracts, as rolling over a position in a contango market can be costly (selling low expiring contracts to buy high expensive ones), whereas backwardation can be profitable for long-term holders rolling positions. How Does Daily ‘Mark-to-Market’ Valuation Impact My Account? Unlike traditional stock trading where gains or losses are realized only when you sell the asset, futures operate on a daily settlement cycle known as Mark-to-Market (MTM). At the end of every trading day, the exchange calculates the settlement price for all open contracts. If the market moves in your favor, the profit is immediately credited to your account. If the market moves against you, the loss is debited. This daily valuation ensures that the exchange maintains financial integrity and prevents the accumulation of massive, unrecoverable debts. This mechanism highlights the importance of maintaining sufficient margin. If a daily debit reduces your account balance below the required maintenance margin, you will receive a margin call and must deposit additional funds immediately. This is a key feature of how futures exchanges work, acting as a safeguard for the entire financial ecosystem. Start Your Trading Journey Today Open a regulated account with a trusted partner in DIFC. Open An Account Can Arbitrage Opportunities Arise from Pricing Inefficiencies? Yes, pricing inefficiencies often create opportunities for arbitrage, particularly for sophisticated traders and institutions. Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage is a common strategy used when a futures contract is overpriced relative to its fair value. In this scenario, a trader might: Borrow money to buy the underlying asset (Spot) today. Simultaneously sell the equivalent futures contract (Short) at the higher price. Hold the asset until the futures contract expires and deliver it to settle the short position. If the premium on the futures price is high enough to cover the cost of borrowing and storage, the trader locks in a risk-free profit. While high-frequency trading algorithms often correct these discrepancies in milliseconds, understanding the mechanics of arbitrage helps investors grasp why derivatives trading is so efficient at price discovery. It ensures that futures prices rarely drift too far from the reality of the underlying physical market. Conclusion Mastering the nuances of pricing and valuation is what separates speculative participants from strategic investors in the futures market. By understanding the components of Fair Value—such as interest rates, storage costs, and dividends—investors can better gauge whether a contract is cheap or expensive. Furthermore, monitoring the forward curve for Contango

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February 12 – Daily Market Update

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Daily Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

12 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily — Broad Market Update Overview Global equities are starting the day with a constructive tone as gains in Europe and across much of Asia set the stage for a modestly higher US open. Leadership continues to broaden beyond the US, with several Asian markets and select Latin American benchmarks outpacing major US indices so far this year. A softer dollar and steady credit conditions are supporting risk appetite, while investors continue to rotate toward cyclicals and rate‑sensitive areas alongside ongoing interest in AI‑linked beneficiaries. Equities US: Futures signal a firmer open, with breadth improving beyond mega-cap tech. Transports, industrials and select financials have shown relative strength as freight volumes, travel demand, and capital spending expectations stabilize. Software and certain ad-tech names remain more mixed as investors sort through AI-related competitive dynamics. Europe: Regional indices are higher on a wave of company updates, with beats and improved guidance out of several sectors helping sentiment. Defensives remain well bid, but cyclical groups tied to logistics, travel, and manufacturing have led recent outperformance. Asia: Markets broadly advanced, with North Asia continuing to benefit from demand across the semiconductor and AI supply chains. Corporate reforms and shareholder-return initiatives remain supportive in parts of the region. ASEAN and India trade mixed as valuations and policy outlooks are reassessed following a strong multi‑year run. Style and factors: Momentum has cooled at the very top of US tech while value, quality, and income factors gain traction. Earnings revision breadth is improving outside the US, adding to the case for regional diversification. Rates and Credit Sovereigns: US Treasury yields are little changed in early trade, with the curve holding recent ranges as markets await the next round of inflation and activity data. European core yields are steady to slightly higher alongside firmer risk sentiment. Credit: Investment-grade spreads remain tight and high-yield risk premiums are stable. Primary issuance is active, with healthy order books pointing to robust demand for carry. Currencies The dollar index is edging lower, aiding risk assets and commodities. High-beta FX is firmer on the back of stronger global growth expectations, while the yen remains sensitive to policy signaling and rate differentials. Select EM currencies are steady, with idiosyncratic drivers continuing to dominate. Commodities Energy: Crude is rangebound as supply developments offset demand optimism tied to improved growth signals in Asia. Refining margins and inventory trends remain in focus. Metals: Industrial metals are mixed; copper and aluminum find support on infrastructure and data-center buildout demand, while near-term macro uncertainty caps rallies. Precious: Gold is steady, with real yields and dollar moves remaining the key drivers. Digital Assets Major tokens are modestly higher. Liquidity thins into weekends and during off-hours, which can amplify moves; positioning and options expiries remain important near-term catalysts. Corporate and Deal Flow Themes Asset management consolidation continues to gather pace as firms seek scale, distribution reach, and technology investment. AI remains a capital magnet, with large private funding rounds underscoring investor conviction in foundational models and enterprise adoption. Health care news flow is active, with leadership changes and regulatory milestones producing outsized single‑stock moves. Payments and fintech updates highlight a recalibration of revenue growth expectations; unit economics and international expansion are key differentiators. Consumer staples and food brands are under scrutiny as portfolio reshaping and pricing power normalize post‑pandemic. Travel, logistics, and freight have re-rated higher on improving demand data and efficiency gains. Key Themes We’re Watching Regional rotation: Outperformance outside the US suggests a broader leadership handoff. Valuations, earnings revisions, and currency dynamics support a case for diversified exposure. Cyclicals vs. secular growth: AI-related beneficiaries remain core to long-term tech spending, but cyclical groups tied to transport, capital goods, and travel are capturing incremental flows as growth expectations stabilize. Policy path: Central bank communication and incoming inflation prints remain pivotal for duration, rate-sensitive equities, and FX trends. Liquidity and market structure: Thinner trading conditions during off-hours can exacerbate swings in crypto and smaller-cap equities; be mindful of leverage and key technical levels. Earnings quality over headlines: Cash flow durability, pricing power, and balance sheet strength are being rewarded more consistently than top-line beats alone. What’s Ahead Macro: Inflation, retail sales, and housing updates across major economies; central bank speakers and minutes. Micro: A busy earnings slate across airlines, payments, semiconductors, travel platforms, and select industrials. Guidance on 2026 capex, AI monetization, and margin trajectories will be in focus. Portfolio Considerations Diversification: Rebalance US-heavy allocations to include select Asia and Europe exposures where earnings revisions and policy tailwinds look favorable. Quality bias: Favor companies with strong free cash flow, resilient margins, and reasonable leverage. Balance secular and cyclical: Pair AI and cloud infrastructure beneficiaries with transportation, logistics, and other economically sensitive names showing improving demand. Currency: Consider hedging where dollar softness or volatility could materially impact returns. Risk management: Use disciplined position sizing and stop‑loss protocols, especially into low‑liquidity windows. This material is for information purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Markets are volatile; consider your objectives and risk tolerance before making investment dec Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and

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February 18 – Daily Market Update

Partial Capital Protection

February 17 – Daily Market Update

PEG ratio

February 16 – Daily Market Update

Spot vs Forward Rates

Weekly Global Market News – february Week 3

February 13 – Daily Market Update

Futures Pricing And Valuation

February 12 – Daily Market Update

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