13 February 2026 - Daily Market Updates

Markets Daily | Broad Market Update

Overview

Global markets are treading cautiously ahead of a key US inflation print. US equity futures are slightly lower, European stocks are softer, and the dollar is a touch firmer. Asian trading was mixed, with Hong Kong underperforming. Bond markets are steady to marginally weaker as traders balance hopes for rate cuts later this year against signs that underlying price pressures may prove stickier than previously assumed. Crypto assets are firmer, and select commodity prices are consolidating.

Snapshot (approximate, 06:20 ET)

US equity futures: modestly lower (around -0.3%)
Europe: Stoxx 600 slightly in the red (about -0.3%)
US dollar: marginally stronger (roughly +0.1% on a broad index)
Asia: Hong Kong notably weaker (down nearly 1.7%)
Bitcoin: higher (around +1.5%–2%)

What’s driving markets

All eyes on inflation: Today’s US consumer price reading is poised to set the near-term tone for rates and risk assets. An upside surprise could challenge the consensus for multiple rate cuts later this year, while a softer print would likely revive the “soft-landing” narrative.
Rates debate: Front-end yields remain sensitive to data surprises. While markets still discount rate reductions this year, the path and timing remain in flux amid resilient growth and evidence of lingering services inflation.
Dollar bid, commodities mixed: The greenback’s mild strength reflects pre-data caution. Base metals are consolidating amid shifting policy headlines, while energy prices are range-bound as supply dynamics offset demand questions.
AI jitters cool, but rotations persist: After a bout of AI-driven volatility and sharp factor rotations, equity markets stabilized. Still, investor positioning remains highly responsive to headlines about automation and productivity, with periodic knock-on effects across software, logistics, financial services, and professional industries.

Equities

US: The tape is balanced ahead of the data. Semiconductor equipment names have benefited from constructive guidance tied to capacity and AI-related demand. By contrast, some ad-driven internet platforms have faced pressure on softer revenue commentary, while select streaming and connected-TV names saw relief on better-than-feared results. An EV manufacturer’s progress toward profitability has supported sentiment in that niche.
Europe: Consumer and luxury-linked names lagged after softer sales updates in select categories, reinforcing a defensive tone. Broader indices remain range-bound as investors await US macro catalysts.
Asia: Hong Kong underperformed on renewed growth concerns, while other regional markets were mixed as earnings season and global rate expectations guided flows.

Fixed income and FX

Treasuries: Yields are little changed to slightly higher into the CPI release. The curve remains in a holding pattern, with two- to five-year maturities most sensitive to any re-pricing of the Fed path.
Global bonds: Core European yields track US moves; peripheral spreads are stable. Credit markets remain orderly, though bid-offer typically widens around major data.
FX: The dollar firmed modestly on event risk hedging. High-beta and cyclical currencies are range-trading; the yen remains driven by relative policy expectations and US yield direction.

Commodities and crypto

Commodities: Industrial metals are steady to softer amid trade-policy headlines and growth worries. Oil holds in a tight band as supply risks offset macro caution. Gold is little changed, reflecting the push-pull between real yields and hedging demand.
Digital assets: Crypto benchmarks are firmer after recent volatility. Institutional interest and flows remain supportive, but positioning is highly reactive to macro data and regulatory developments.

Primary markets and corporate flow

New issuance: Signs of select US IPO postponements and resized offerings reflect a more discerning tone on valuations and near-term demand. Seasoned issuers in investment-grade and high yield continue to access markets, but windows may narrow around data prints.
Earnings pulse: Reporting volume is slowing into the long weekend. A handful of consumer and healthcare names report before the open; guidance and margin commentary remain the key swing factors for single-stock moves.

The day ahead — key things to watch

US CPI: Core services momentum, shelter disinflation pace, and goods pricing will be dissected for clues on the durability of progress toward target.
Rate expectations: Watch front-end yields, Fed-dated OIS, and terminal-rate pricing post-release.
Equity leadership: Semis and AI-adjacent beneficiaries versus defensives; any rotation after the data could set the tone into month-end.
Liquidity: Expect wider spreads and quicker price gaps around the print; levels may normalize into the afternoon if outcomes meet consensus.

Risk considerations

Event risk: Macro surprises can prompt outsized moves in rates, FX, and cyclicals. Hedging and disciplined risk limits are advisable around releases.
Policy and trade: Shifts in tariff frameworks and industrial policy can influence metals, industrials, and global supply-chain plays.
Earnings and guidance: With macro uncertainty elevated, forward guidance remains a primary driver of dispersion across sectors.

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