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Weekly Global Market News – february Week 3

Weekly Global Market News – February -Week 3 A holiday-shortened start and Asia’s festive calendar will thin liquidity early in the week, but the macro and earnings flow intensifies from Tuesday onward. Headline drivers include a heavy slate of inflation prints across advanced economies, the latest read on the US policy outlook via FOMC minutes, flash PMIs on Friday, and China’s loan prime rate decision. On the corporate side, global miners dominate with results that will ripple across iron ore, copper, and gold, while selected tech, consumer, industrials, and energy names provide important micro clues on demand, pricing power, and capital allocation. Market conditions and closures US: Presidents’ Day on Monday; cash equities, Treasuries, and futures observe holiday hours. Latin America: Brazil and Argentina are closed Monday and Tuesday for Carnival. Asia: Lunar New Year-related closures keep mainland China shut most of the week; Hong Kong runs a half-day Monday then resumes Friday. South Korea observes Seollal for three days. Key themes to watch 1.Inflation pulse and policy path UK CPI and PPI (Wed): Services inflation stickiness vs base effects is central to the BoE’s cut timeline. A firm print would support front-end gilt yields and underpin GBP into week’s end retail sales. Euro area components (Germany, France; Tue/Wed): January readings help refine the ECB’s handoff from disinflation to timing cuts in H2. Japan CPI (Fri) and Q4 GDP (Mon): A firm core outcome and resilient growth bolster the case for the BoJ’s eventual policy normalization; watch JGB term premium and yen sensitivity. Canada CPI (Tue): Core measures and shelter components are pivotal for the BoC’s mid-year easing narrative. Germany PPI (Fri): Producer prices continue to guide margin dynamics and potential disinflation carry-through. 2. Central bank signals FOMC minutes (Wed): Market focus on balance between patience and data dependence on cuts. Any color on QT glidepath and inflation risk asymmetry will steer the front end of the US curve and the dollar. China LPR decision (Fri): With growth support in focus, watch for a targeted easing bias; credit impulse implications are key for copper, iron ore, and China-sensitive equities. 3. Global growth nowcast Flash PMIs (Fri, US/UK/Eurozone/Japan/others): Manufacturing stabilization vs services resilience; new orders and prices-paid subindices will be read for margin and inventory signals. UK retail sales and public finances (Fri): Consumption breadth after the holiday period; implications for domestic cyclicals and gilts. EU industrial production (Mon) and construction output (Thu): Capex temperature check across the bloc. 4. Earnings: Miners lead, with cross-asset read-throughs Diversified miners: BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American, Antofagasta, Newmont, Kinross, Pan African Resources (Tue–Fri). Focus on: Price decks and sensitivity to iron ore, copper, and gold. Capex discipline vs growth optionality; decarbonization and permitting updates. Unit costs, FX tailwinds, logistics and energy inputs. Dividend and buyback frameworks amid volatile commodity strips. Energy: Occidental, Repsol (Thu). Watch capex, shale productivity, free cash flow allocation, and commentary on supply discipline. Industrials/building materials: CRH, Deere & Co, Airbus, Mondi, Renault (Thu). Construction volumes, backlogs, and pricing carry; aero supply chain cadence. Consumer and staples: Walmart, Nestlé, Carrefour, Pernod Ricard, Moncler, InterContinental Hotels, Live Nation (Tue–Thu). Volumes vs price/mix, private-label trade-up/down, travel and events momentum, China reopening after holidays. Tech and payments-adjacent: Palo Alto Networks, Analog Devices, Cadence, eBay, DoorDash, Etsy, Akamai (Tue–Thu). Cybersecurity budget resilience, AI hardware cycle timing, inventory normalization in semis, e-commerce take rates and cost discipline. Financials and utilities/insurance: Zurich Insurance, Centrica, Consolidated Edison, Aegon, Suncorp (Wed–Thu). Cat losses, solvency metrics, rate sensitivity, retail energy margins. Asset-class playbook FX USD: Range-bound into Wednesday’s minutes; upside risks if growth momentum remains firm. GBP: Two-way risk around CPI/retail sales; firmer data would support sterling and front-end gilt yields. JPY: Sensitive to Japan CPI/GDP; hawkish BoJ expectations could re-steepen JGBs and buoy yen. CAD: CPI surprise steers BoC cut probabilities; watch CAD crosses for volatility. AUD: Labor force data (Thu) in focus; a firm print tempers early cuts pricing. CNH: Holiday-thinned flows; LPR bias and any growth guidance could set the tone into month-end. Rates US: Curve dynamics hinge on minutes and Friday’s GDP update; stickier inflation favors bear-flattener risk. UK: Gilts vulnerable to services CPI; pay attention to breakevens. Euro area: Bunds track core inflation and PMIs; construction/IP softness still a support tailwind. Japan: JGB term premium sensitive to CPI and policy normalization chatter. Equities Expect dispersion: commodity producers, AI-adjacent names, and defensives may decouple. Low Monday liquidity can amplify moves in Europe; watch for gap risk when US reopens Tuesday. Commodities Iron ore and copper: Guided by miners’ capex/cost outlooks and China tone post-holidays. Gold: Real-yield path and central bank demand remain supportive on dips. Oil: Macro growth tone and inventory data to drive spreads; energy equities guided by capital return commentary. Event radar India’s AI Impact Summit in New Delhi (Mon–Fri): High-profile tech and industry leaders discuss AI deployment and infrastructure. Semis, hyperscale capex, and enterprise software guidance will be parsed for spend intentions and timelines. Political and geopolitical watch: Developments in the Middle East and broader US policy headlines may add episodic risk to energy and haven flows. The week’s calendar at a glance Monday Market closures: US (Presidents’ Day), Brazil and Argentina (Carnival), South Korea (Seollal), China (Lunar New Year week), Hong Kong (half-day). Data: EU industrial production (Dec), India WPI (Jan); Japan and Switzerland Q4 GDP first estimates; UK Rightmove house prices (Feb). Earnings: Bridgestone (FY). Tuesday Data: Canada CPI (Jan); Germany CPI/HICP (Jan); UK labor market stats, flash productivity (Q4), ONS housebuilding; US Conference Board Employment Trends Index. Earnings: Antofagasta (FY), BHP (HY), Cadence Design Systems (Q4/FY), Caesars Entertainment (Q4/FY), Carrefour (FY), DTE Energy (Q4/FY), Fluor (Q4/FY), Genuine Parts (Q4/FY), Havas (FY), InterContinental Hotels (FY), Kenvue (Q4/FY), Kerry Group (FY), Medtronic (Q3), Palo Alto Networks (Q2), Vulcan Materials (Q4/FY). Wednesday Data: France CPI (Jan); Germany labor market (Q4); UK CPI and PPI (Jan), UK house price indices and private rents (Feb). Central banks: FOMC minutes (Jan meeting). Earnings: Analog Devices (Q1), BAE Systems (FY), Celanese (Q4/FY), Conduit Re (FY),

Weekly Global Market News – february Week 3 Read More »

Jan 07 – Daily Market Update

07 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily – Broad Market Briefing Global mood Risk appetite stayed resilient overnight. Asia extended its New Year upswing, led by Hong Kong, as investors rotated toward markets with lower valuations and improving growth signals. Europe opened slightly firmer, while US equity futures were broadly flat. The US dollar remains soft against major peers, a trend many investors expect could continue if global growth broadens and US rate differentials narrow. Crypto eased from recent highs, while industrial metals stayed supported. Macro and policy Washington signaled potential support for private-sector efforts to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector following the recent change in leadership. Markets are assessing implications for heavy crude supply, US Gulf refiners, and the medium‑term path of sanctions policy. Beijing introduced tighter controls on shipments to Japan with potential military end‑use, keeping attention on supply-chain security in electronics and advanced manufacturing. Investor surveys continue to show optimism on US equities after multiple strong years, with growing debate about market leadership and the durability of AI‑related trades. Equities Asia: Rotational buying into North Asia and Hong Kong persisted, aided by discounted valuations and policy hopes. Mainland China shares were mixed, with defensives and exporters relatively steady. Europe: Stocks edged higher at the open, with miners and industrials benefiting from firm metals prices. Energy shares were supported by geopolitics and crude’s bid. US: Futures were little changed. Semiconductors remain in focus after updates from leading chipmakers on data‑center roadmaps and AI hardware competition. Select analog and embedded-chip names outperformed after upbeat guidance. M&A chatter in enterprise software added to single‑name dispersion. Commodities Copper extended its rally after clearing a major psychological threshold on the global benchmark, supported by tight refined supply, robust power-transition demand expectations, and talk of potential US trade measures on refined metal. The move has favored diversified miners and select smelter plays, while raising input‑cost questions for capital goods makers. Crude traded with a modest bid as markets weighed Venezuela headlines alongside ongoing shipping and geopolitical risks. Product cracks and heavy‑sour differentials remain areas to watch if flows shift. Gold was steady, balancing lower real yields against firmer risk sentiment. FX and rates The dollar drifted lower on a trade‑weighted basis. Higher‑beta FX and select Asia EM currencies benefited from improved risk tone and carry. Sovereign yields were little changed in early trading. Primary markets were active: global dollar bond issuance just posted its busiest session in roughly a year, signaling healthy risk appetite and favorable funding windows. Digital assets Bitcoin eased modestly after recent gains. Broader crypto performance was mixed, with market attention rotating to liquidity conditions and regulatory developments. Key themes we’re watching Leadership and breadth: Can cyclicals and non‑US markets take the baton if mega‑cap tech momentum cools? AI supply chain: Intensifying competition in accelerated computing, with implications for GPU vendors, memory, networking, and data‑center power infrastructure. Commodities tightness: Copper’s squeeze highlights the interplay of trade policy, inventories, and capex cycles across miners and manufacturers. Policy and geopolitics: Energy policy toward Venezuela, Asia export controls, and shipping lanes remain key swing factors for commodities and global trade. Funding conditions: A robust start for primary debt markets supports the soft‑landing narrative; watch for duration appetite and pricing as issuance continues. The day ahead Data and events: Focus remains on global PMIs, US labor and inflation updates later this week, and central bank speakers for guidance on the timing and pace of policy easing. Earnings: Early-cycle updates from chipmakers, cloud/data‑center suppliers, and select consumer names will inform views on 2026 growth and margins. Portfolio considerations Diversification across regions and factors can help if leadership rotates. For equities, watch the balance between quality growth and cyclicals tied to industrial activity and metals. In credit, strong new-issue demand favors active selection on structure and covenants as spreads remain tight. Commodity users may consider hedging strategies given copper and energy volatility. 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Jan 07 – Daily Market Update January 7, 2026 07 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily –… Read More Jan 06 – Daily Market Update January 6, 2026 06 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Global mood Risk… Read More Jan 05 – Daily Market Update January 5, 2026 05 Jan 26 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily —… Read More Jan 02 – Daily Market Update January 2, 2026 Jan 02 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily — Broad… Read More Dec 30 – Daily Market Update December 30,

Weekly Global Market News – february Week 3

Jan 07 – Daily Market Update

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