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Nov 26 – Daily Market Updates

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Nov 26 – Daily Market Updates Market snapshot (as of 06:40 am ET) S&P 500 futures: 6,803 (+0.32%) Nasdaq 100 futures: 25,206.25 (+0.48%) US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.00% (+0.6 bps) Dollar Spot Index: 1,222.78 (-0.02%) GBP/USD: 1.32 (-0.09%) The big picture US equity futures are pointing higher, extending a multi-session upswing as investors lean into a softer-rate narrative and calmer macro conditions into the holiday period. Treasury yields are holding near 4% at the long end, the dollar is a touch softer, and risk appetite remains constructive with large-cap tech providing a backbone to sentiment. Liquidity is thinning ahead of the US market holiday, which can amplify intraday moves. What’s driving markets Policy path: Markets are increasingly discounting the prospect of rate relief over the coming months, with traders penciling in multiple cuts through 2026. Recent public remarks from policymakers have acknowledged cooling in parts of the labor market and tighter financial conditions, supporting the case for a gradual pivot. Debate remains within the central bank, so the near-term cadence of easing is still conditional on incoming inflation and employment data. Earnings tone: The results calendar is winding down, but updates from select hardware, software, and consumer names continue to shape sector leadership. Guidance sensitivity is high: companies tied to AI infrastructure, enterprise IT spending, and US consumer demand remain in focus. Global policy watch: In the UK, a closely watched fiscal update is due, with gilt markets attentive to issuance signals and the credibility of the medium-term framework. Investors remember the turbulence from prior policy missteps and will scrutinize funding needs alongside growth assumptions. China property overhang: Renewed stress among large developers underscores a still-fragile recovery in Chinese real estate. Any incremental support measures will be assessed for spillovers to credit markets, commodities, and regional growth. Equities US: Futures suggest a positive open led by growth and tech, with cyclicals tracking higher on improved sentiment. Within tech, AI-linked capital expenditure remains a key narrative, though leadership is rotating as investors reassess competitive dynamics in chips, software, and cloud services. Europe: Stocks are mixed to firmer, with defensives steady and rate-sensitive sectors catching a bid on stable yields. UK domestics are poised for headline-driven moves around the budget. Sectors to watch today: Semiconductors and AI infrastructure (capex visibility, supply dynamics) Enterprise software (pipeline commentary and margins) Consumer discretionary and specialty retail (holiday season read-throughs) Airlines and travel (record holiday passenger volumes, capacity/ops updates) Rates and credit US Treasuries: The curve is little changed, with the 10-year hovering around 4%. A softer dollar and stable breakevens reflect a market comfortable with disinflation progress, but thin pre-holiday liquidity may exaggerate moves. Gilts: Modestly weaker into the UK budget as investors await details on borrowing, growth, and issuance. Term premium and supply outlook remain the swing factors. Credit: Primary issuance is slowing into the holiday. Spreads are broadly stable; higher-quality paper retains a funding cost advantage as markets price an easier policy path next year. FX and commodities FX: The dollar is fractionally lower as rate-cut expectations firm. Sterling is slightly softer ahead of UK fiscal headlines. Watch EUR and GBP for post-announcement volatility. Commodities: Precious metals are firmer on the softer-dollar backdrop and steady real yields. Energy is range-bound with attention on supply discipline and year-end demand. Today’s setup US calendar: A lighter docket into the holiday; liquidity likely to taper through the session. US markets are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and reopen Friday on an abbreviated schedule. Event risk: UK budget details and issuance guidance; any surprise in global policy commentary or major corporate pre-announcements. Market mechanics: Seasonal factors and reduced depth can widen bid-ask spreads; consider execution strategies accordingly. How to position tactically (not investment advice) Maintain flexibility: With liquidity thin and news-driven swings likely, staggered orders and defined risk parameters can help manage slippage. Watch leadership breadth: Continued participation beyond mega-cap tech would strengthen the durability of the rally; monitor cyclicals and small/mid-caps for confirmation. Data dependency: Near-term moves hinge on the next prints for inflation and employment; keep an eye on revisions as they’ve been market-moving in recent months. Key takeaways Risk tone is constructive into the holiday with futures higher, yields steady, and the dollar slightly softer. Markets are leaning toward a gentler policy path, but internal policy debate and data dependency argue for measured expectations. UK fiscal announcements and China property headlines remain the main global swing factors today. Important information This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. Market levels are indicative and subject to change. Consider your objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. All Posts Market Updates Nov 26 – Daily Market Updates November 26, 2025 Nov 26 – Daily

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Essentials of Derivatives Trading

Leave a Comment / Derivatives Basics, Educational Blogs, Exchange Traded Derivatives, Uncategorized /

Mastering Market Moves: The Essentials of Derivatives Trading The financial world is vast, and for many investors, “derivatives” can sound like a complex buzzword reserved for Wall Street elites. However, derivatives are powerful tools that, when understood, can help manage risk and uncover new opportunities in global markets. At PhillipCapital DIFC, we believe in empowering our clients with knowledge. Whether you are an institutional investor, a family office, or a retail trader looking to diversify, this guide breaks down the basics of derivatives. What exactly is a financial “derivative,” and why is it called that? A derivative is a financial contract between two or more parties that derives its value from an underlying asset, group of assets, or benchmark. Think of it as a side agreement about the future price of something else. This “underlying” asset can be almost anything: a stock (like Apple or Reliance Industries), a commodity (like Gold or Crude Oil), a currency pair (like USD/AED), or even an interest rate. It is called a “derivative” because the instrument itself has no intrinsic value; its worth is entirely derived from the fluctuations of that underlying asset. If the price of gold goes up, the value of a gold derivative will change accordingly, depending on the type of contract you hold. Investors typically use them for two main reasons: Hedging (protecting against price drops) or Speculation (betting on price movements to make a profit). What are the different types of derivatives available to traders? While there are many complex variations, the derivatives market is primarily built on four pillars. At PhillipCapital DIFC, we specialize in providing access to the most liquid and popular of these: Futures Contracts: These are standardized agreements to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price at a specific time in the future. They are traded on exchanges. For example, you might buy a crude oil future contract expecting the price to rise next month. Options: These contracts give you the right, but not the obligation, to buy (Call Option) or sell (Put Option) an asset at a specific price. This is great for traders who want to limit their downside risk while keeping the upside open. Forwards: Similar to futures but are private, customizable agreements between two parties (Over-the-Counter). They aren’t traded on exchanges. Swaps: These involve exchanging cash flows with another party. For example, a company might swap a variable interest rate loan for a fixed interest rate to gain stability. Trade on 15+ global exchanges Explore our range of Global Futures & Options to see which instruments fit your portfolio View F&O Markets How can derivatives be used for both risk management (Hedging) and profit generation (Speculation)? These are the two distinct “personalities” of derivative trading. The Hedger (The Insurer): Imagine you are a jeweler holding a large inventory of gold. You are worried the price of gold might drop next week, devaluing your stock. You can “hedge” this risk by selling gold futures contracts. If the market price drops, your inventory loses value, but your short position in the futures market makes a profit, balancing out the loss. It acts like an insurance policy.   The Speculator (The Trader): You don’t own the gold, but you study the charts and believe gold prices are about to skyrocket. You can buy a futures contract or a Call Option. You don’t intend to ever take delivery of the physical gold; you are simply planning to sell the contract later at a higher price to generate a return on your capital. Can I trade global markets like the US S&P 500 or Commodities from Dubai? Absolutely. One of the greatest advantages of derivatives is that they erase geographical borders. You don’t need to be on Wall Street to trade American markets, nor do you need to be in London to trade Brent Crude Oil. Through PhillipCapital DIFC, you gain access to over 15 global exchanges, including the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange), ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), and DGCX (Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange). This means you can trade futures and options on major global indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, or Dow Jones. This is particularly powerful for portfolio diversification. If you believe the US tech sector is going to rally, you can buy a NASDAQ future. If you want to hedge against rising energy costs, you can trade Oil futures—all from a single, regulated account here in the UAE. What is the benefit of trading derivatives on an exchange like Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) versus Over-the-Counter (OTC)? Trading on a regulated exchange like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) , which PhillipCapital provides access to, offers significantly higher safety and transparency compared to OTC trading. No Counterparty Risk: In an OTC trade, if the other guy goes bankrupt, you might not get paid. On an exchange, the Clearing House guarantees the trade. Liquidity: Exchanges bring together thousands of buyers and sellers, making it easier to enter and exit positions instantly. Price Transparency: You can see exactly what price the market is trading at in real-time, ensuring you get a fair deal. Is derivatives trading risky? How can I manage it? It is important to be transparent: yes, derivatives involve risk, primarily due to leverage. Leverage allows you to control a large contract value with a relatively small amount of capital (margin). While this can magnify your profits, it can also magnify your losses if the market moves against you. However, risk can be managed. Successful traders use “Stop-Loss” orders to automatically exit a bad trade before losses spiral. They also limit the amount of capital they risk on any single trade. At PhillipCapital DIFC, we provide institutional-grade tools and risk management support to help you navigate these waters safely. We believe in “educated trading”—understanding the instrument before you invest. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The

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Nov 25 – Daily Market Updates

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Nov 25 – Daily Market Updates Market snapshot (as of 6:33 a.m. ET) S&P 500 futures: 6,710.25 (-0.16%) Nasdaq 100 futures: 24,871.25 (-0.31%) US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.029% (+0.6 bps) Dollar Spot Index: 1,225.87 (-0.07%) Bitcoin: 87,359.7 (-1.58%) Five things to know 1) Stocks take a breather: US equity futures eased following a tech-led run-up as traders brace for fresh reads on the economy. Retail sales and producer prices due today will help shape expectations for a potential Fed rate cut next month. 2) AI hardware rivalry intensifies: The market’s AI leaders are no longer moving in lockstep. Google and Nvidia are in focus as investors assess whether Google’s in-house chips can provide a credible alternative to Nvidia’s dominance in AI compute. 3) SoftBank under pressure: Shares fell sharply for a second session as investors weighed whether a stronger push from Google’s Gemini could dent OpenAI’s momentum—an important exposure for SoftBank’s portfolio. 4) Crypto’s selling pressure cools: The recent wave of Bitcoin liquidation appears to be slowing, stoking hopes the drawdown is stabilizing. The token is hovering around the $88,000 mark. 5) Geopolitics on the tape: President Donald Trump held calls with leaders in China and Japan amid heightened tension over Taiwan. Equities in Hong Kong and mainland China welcomed signs of engagement. Context matters: Why GPUs won: Nvidia’s graphics processors, built for parallel workloads, proved ideal for training large AI models. Nvidia then layered a deep software ecosystem on top, creating a powerful moat. Why TPUs are catching on: Google’s seventh-generation TPUs reportedly deliver stronger performance-per-watt and improved efficiency for certain AI tasks, especially at hyperscale, while reducing energy draw—a growing cost center for AI operators. What this isn’t: An overnight replacement. Even Google isn’t attempting to phase out GPUs entirely. The AI buildout is expanding so quickly that many players will coexist, but any real customer diversification is enough to shake confidence in a single-supplier narrative. Investor takeaway: The AI stack is evolving rapidly—from chips to models to applications. Leadership can rotate within segments even as AI remains the primary engine behind US equity strength. If you believe the cycle continues, be careful exiting the winners too soon, but watch for signs of spend rationalization and second-order beneficiaries (power, networking, memory, and cooling). On the move Zoom +4.4% premarket: Revenue topped expectations, highlighting traction across its enterprise toolkit beyond video conferencing. SanDisk +2.3%: Set to enter the S&P 500, replacing Interpublic, pending index rebalancing. Spotify +3.3%: Reported plans to lift US subscription prices in Q1, signaling continued pricing power. Alibaba ADRs +4.2%: Beat on revenue as China’s AI and cloud investments underpin growth. On deck before the bell: Abercrombie & Fitch, Best Buy, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Kohl’s. After the close: Autodesk, Dell Technologies, HP Inc., Workday, Zscaler. Copper: the prize everyone wants Copper has rallied roughly 23% year-to-date, with supply expected to run tight for years. That backdrop is driving bold corporate maneuvers: BHP’s last-minute play: The world’s largest miner made a late push to acquire Anglo American in an effort to block Anglo’s roughly $60 billion combination with Teck Resources, according to reporting. Talks fizzled within days, but the move underscored how coveted tier-one copper assets in South America have become. Why the urgency: Structural demand from grid upgrades, EVs, AI data centers, and renewable buildouts is colliding with constrained project pipelines and permitting delays. For diversified miners, scale copper exposure is increasingly strategic. Investor lens: Expect continued M&A noise, premium pricing for quality ore bodies, and focus on capital discipline. Operating execution and jurisdictional risk will be key differentiators. Policy and risk Private markets debate: Apollo’s Marc Rowan pushed back on claims that integrating private assets into retirement and insurance portfolios creates systemic risk, arguing that sensational headlines have outpaced substance. Scrutiny has intensified following distress at a handful of sponsor-backed credits. Geopolitics: Diplomatic outreach between the US, China, and Japan may steady nerves, but Taiwan-related flashpoints remain a key risk for supply chains and Asia equities. Crypto corner Flows: About $6 billion has exited global crypto exchange-traded products so far this month—the largest monthly outflow on record since 2018. Composition matters: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen redemptions totaling only about 3% of their roughly $110 billion in assets, suggesting stickier capital among core holders despite volatility. Price action: Selling pressure appears to be abating, with BTC near $88,000. Watch liquidity conditions into month-end and any large creation/redemption activity as cues for near-term direction. Day ahead US: Retail sales; Producer Price Index; multiple big-box and specialty retailers report premarket; enterprise software and PC hardware after the close. Rates: 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.03%—a pivotal level for equity valuation support. FX/commodities: Softer dollar lends a modest tailwind to risk; copper remains bid on supply tightness. The AI trade is broadening beneath the surface, crypto stress looks to be moderating, and copper’s long-cycle story is pulling strategy and capital into the pit. Near-term, today’s inflation and consumer data will set the tone for the Fed-path narrative and determine whether the recent equity momentum has room to run. Important disclosures This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or asset. Market data is subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consider your objectives, risk tolerance, and costs before investing. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital

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Understanding Bond Fundamentals: A Guide for Smart Investing

Leave a Comment / Bond Basics, Educational Blogs /

Understanding Bond Fundamentals: A Guide for Smart Investing In the diverse world of financial markets, building a resilient portfolio requires more than just chasing stock market rallies. It requires balance, stability, and consistent income. This is where bonds come into play. Often viewed as the “steady hand” of investing, bonds offer a way to preserve capital while generating predictable returns. At PhillipCapital DIFC, we believe that educated investors are successful investors. Whether you are a High-Net-Worth Individual (HNWI) in Dubai or an institutional client looking to diversify, understanding the mechanics of fixed-income securities is crucial. Below, we break down the essentials of bonds in a comprehensive Q&A format to help you navigate this asset class with confidence. What exactly is a bond? Think of a bond as a loan, but instead of you borrowing money from a bank, you are the one lending money to an entity. When you purchase a bond, you are effectively lending your capital to a borrower—typically a government, a municipality, or a corporation—for a defined period. In exchange for this loan, the borrower (issuer) promises to do two things: Pay you a specified rate of interest (known as the coupon) at regular intervals (usually annually or semi-annually). Repay the original loan amount (the principal or face value) when the bond reaches the end of its term (the maturity date). Bonds are legally binding agreements, making them generally safer than stocks, as bondholders have a higher claim on assets than shareholders if a company faces bankruptcy. What are the key components I need to understand before investing? To evaluate a bond properly, you need to be familiar with its “anatomy.” Here are the four pillars of every bond: Face Value (Par Value): This is the amount the bond will be worth at maturity. It is also the reference amount the issuer uses to calculate interest payments. Coupon Rate: This is the interest rate the bond issuer pays to the holder. For example, a 5% coupon on a $1,000 bond means you receive $50 a year. Maturity Date: The specific date on which the borrower must pay back the principal amount to the investor. Yield: This is a dynamic figure that represents the return you actually get on the bond, based on its current market price and the coupon payments. How do Bond Prices relate to Interest Rates? This is perhaps the most critical concept in fixed-income investing. Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, new bonds are issued with higher coupons. This makes existing bonds with lower coupons less attractive, causing their prices to fall. When interest rates fall, new bonds are issued with lower coupons. This makes your existing older bonds (which pay higher interest) more valuable, causing their prices to rise. What types of bonds can I access through PhillipCapital DIFC? The bond market is vast, offering different risk and return profiles. Through our global platform, investors can access a wide array of fixed-income securities: Government Bonds (Sovereign Debt): Issued by national governments. These are generally considered low-risk, especially those from stable economies (e.g., US Treasuries, UK Gilts). Corporate Bonds: Issued by companies to fund business expansion. These typically offer higher yields than government bonds to compensate for the slightly higher risk. High-Yield Bonds: Issued by companies with lower credit ratings. These offer significant income potential but come with higher volatility. Global & Emerging Market Bonds: For investors seeking exposure outside their home currency or region, offering diversification across different economies. Explore Our Global Bond Offerings Your gateway to secure, globally diversified bond investments. Learn More Why are Credit Ratings important? Not all borrowers are created equal. Just as individuals have credit scores, bond issuers are rated by independent agencies like Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s (S&P), and Fitch. Investment Grade (AAA to BBB-): These bonds are issued by financially stable entities and have a low risk of default. They are ideal for capital preservation. Non-Investment Grade (Junk Bonds or High Yield): These are rated BB+ and below. They imply a higher risk that the borrower might default, but they pay higher interest rates to attract investors. At PhillipCapital, our experts can help you assess the credit quality of an issuance to ensure it aligns with your risk appetite. Why should I include bonds in my portfolio? Bonds serve several vital roles in a well-rounded investment strategy: Income Generation: The regular coupon payments provide a steady stream of cash flow, which can be used for living expenses or reinvested. Capital Preservation: Bonds are generally less volatile than stocks, helping to protect your principal. Diversification: Bonds often perform differently than stocks. When equity markets are volatile, bonds can provide a stability buffer, smoothing out the overall returns of your portfolio. Speak to a Fixed Income Head Contact Now How do I start trading bonds with PhillipCapital DIFC? Investing in the global bond market requires a platform that offers reach, reliability, and regulatory trust. As a DFSA-regulated entity, PhillipCapital DIFC provides a secure gateway to international fixed-income markets. Whether you are looking to invest in USD-denominated sovereign bonds or high-yield corporate debentures, our sophisticated trading platforms and experienced dealing desk are at your service. Disclosures For informational purposes only; not investment advice or a solicitation to buy/sell any security or digital asset. Markets move quickly; quotes and levels may change. All company names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. Questions or feedback? Contact your brokerage representative or editorial team. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be

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Nov 24 – Daily Market Updates

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Nov 24 – Daily Market Updates Market snapshot (as of 06:27 a.m. ET; levels may have changed) S&P 500 futures: 6,629.5 (+0.14%) Nasdaq 100 futures: 24,390.5 (+0.35%) S. 10-year Treasury yield: 4.048% (-1.5 bps) Dollar Spot Index: 1,226.17 (-0.02%) Bitcoin: 86,004 (-2.24%) Top things to know today Crypto under pressure: After a brief weekend bounce, Bitcoin resumed its slide, slipping back below 86,000 as traders brace for continued outflows and tighter risk management into year-end. Tech stocks, however, are pacing early gains in U.S. futures. China AI app momentum: Alibaba’s revamped Qwen app reportedly drew more than 10 million downloads in the first week after relaunch, supporting its longer-term push to build a mass-market AI assistant. Shares advanced in Hong Kong trading. Europe’s defense trade cools: European defense names retreated on signs of movement in talks seeking Kyiv’s backing for a U.S.-supported peace path, while Ukraine dollar bonds rallied and select Eastern European currencies firmed. Mega-miner recalibration: BHP has stepped back from another tilt at Anglo American, removing a potential obstacle to Anglo’s planned combination with Teck Resources’ steelmaking coal assets in Canada. Retail leadership change: Kohl’s is expected to appoint Michael Bender as permanent CEO as soon as today, according to reports, ahead of Tuesday’s earnings and after a turbulent leadership stretch. Deep dive: Crypto’s latest gut check The crypto market’s hallmark whipsaws are back, but this episode stands out for how quickly positioning has flipped. A multi-week downdraft has erased roughly half a trillion dollars from Bitcoin’s market value from the peak, with altcoins faring worse. Unlike prior crashes driven by systemic failures, today’s stress reflects a broader, more institutional investor base. Key dynamics: ETF flows matter: New spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen sizable redemptions this month, introducing a daily liquidity channel that didn’t exist in past cycles. When momentum falters, those flows can amplify moves. Corporate treasuries reconsider: Token-holding vehicles and crypto-treasury strategies are facing tougher scrutiny as investors question the pure-hold model in a higher-rate, higher-volatility environment. Institutional rebalancing: Professional investors tend to trim winners and control risk into drawdowns, which can pressure prices as volatility spikes. Sentiment reset: A popular “fear and greed” gauge for digital assets fell into deep “extreme fear” territory late last week (low teens on a 0–100 scale), underscoring the capitulation tone. What to watch next: ETF net flows and borrowing rates across major venues Stablecoin market cap trends as a proxy for on-chain liquidity Funding rates and basis for signs of short-term positioning extremes Cross-market risk appetite in tech and high beta equities On the move Baidu rose premarket after a major broker upgraded the stock to overweight, citing improving prospects in cloud and AI services. Alphabet extended last week’s rally as investors price in enthusiasm around the latest Gemini AI releases. Bayer jumped after announcing positive late-stage results for an experimental stroke-prevention therapy. Ubisoft surged after finalizing an investment transaction with Tencent tied to Vantage Studios, the new home for several flagship gaming franchises. The week ahead United States Data catch-up: September retail sales and durable goods orders are due, alongside the Fed’s Beige Book for a read on regional conditions. Thanksgiving: U.S. markets closed Thursday; expect lighter liquidity around the holiday. Earnings highlights: Alibaba, Dell Technologies, Workday, HP, Best Buy, Kohl’s, Dick’s Sporting Goods (Tue); Deere (Wed). Europe/UK UK Autumn Budget (Wed): Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents the fiscal plan amid debate over tax measures and growth priorities. ECB: Financial Stability Review (Wed); minutes and consumer confidence indicators later in the week. Asia-Pacific Japan: 40-year JGB auction (Wed); data Friday include unemployment, industrial production and retail sales. Australia: Monthly CPI (Wed). New Zealand: RBNZ rate decision (Wed). China: Industrial profits (Thu). Retail watch: Holiday hopes meet cautious consumers Recent big-box results suggest the U.S. shopper is turning more value-conscious heading into peak season. Signals include: Price-led traffic: One major discounter leaned harder into price cuts, sacrificing margin as customers trim spending on apparel and home goods. Deferred projects: A leading home improvement chain reduced guidance as higher rates and inflation dampen big-ticket demand. Grocery-led growth: Even the sector’s top performer emphasized strength in food and bargain-seeking among mid-tier households—classic signs of caution. Affluent fatigue: Higher-income consumers, a pillar of 2025 spending resilience, are showing more selectivity. Implications: Sales may rely on sharper promotions, pressuring gross margins. Inventory and markdown discipline will be central to Q4 earnings quality. Watch guidance from electronics and sporting goods retailers this week for read-throughs on discretionary demand. Disclosures : This publication is for information only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or digital asset. Markets move quickly; quotes and levels are subject to change. All company names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. Questions or feedback? Contact your brokerage representative or our editorial desk. Have a productive trading day. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk

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Weekly Global Market News – Nov 24

Leave a Comment / Uncategorized, Weekly Global Market Update /

Weekly Global market Updates Nov 24 Week Ahead Playbook: Budgets, Beige Book and Black Friday Good morning and welcome to your trading week. The coming days blend policy theatre, thin holiday liquidity and a final flurry of data before year-end positioning takes hold. Three themes to watch: UK fiscal reset in the spotlight The UK Chancellor will deliver her Autumn fiscal statement on Wednesday alongside updated projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Focus for markets: Credibility of the medium-term path to balance the current budget by 2029–30 without higher basic income tax rates. Any structural reforms to lift business investment: capex incentives, R&D treatment, planning and infrastructure delivery, and changes to capital allowances. Gilt supply implications and Debt Management Office remit updates; sensitivity of the 5–10 year sector and real yields. Household income and consumption: thresholds, allowances and benefit uprating. Market takeaways: A convincing pro-investment framework would be sterling- and equity-supportive and could compress UK term premia. A piecemeal package that leans on future restraint risks steeper curves and pressure on domestic cyclicals. 2) US holiday week: quiet tape, loud signals US markets are shut Thursday for Thanksgiving and typically operate shortened hours on Friday. Expect subdued volumes and intermittent liquidity through the week. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (Wed) arrives as investors debate how long restrictive policy must stay in place. Read-throughs on wage momentum, pricing power and credit conditions will steer front-end expectations. Consumer lens: Conference Board confidence (Tue) and real-time read-across from Black Friday/Cyber Monday. Watch for discounting intensity and inventory commentary from retailers. Political backdrop: Media reports suggest the White House is pushing to accelerate talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine ahead of the holiday. Any credible movement would reverberate through energy, European risk and defense names. This remains highly uncertain. 2) US holiday week: quiet tape, loud signals US markets are shut Thursday for Thanksgiving and typically operate shortened hours on Friday. Expect subdued volumes and intermittent liquidity through the week. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (Wed) arrives as investors debate how long restrictive policy must stay in place. Read-throughs on wage momentum, pricing power and credit conditions will steer front-end expectations. Consumer lens: Conference Board confidence (Tue) and real-time read-across from Black Friday/Cyber Monday. Watch for discounting intensity and inventory commentary from retailers. Political backdrop: Media reports suggest the White House is pushing to accelerate talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine ahead of the holiday. Any credible movement would reverberate through energy, European risk and defense names. This remains highly uncertain. 3) Inflation checkpoints in Europe; Asia in focus Germany prints preliminary November CPI/HICP (Fri), with France CPI/PPI the same day. A downside surprise would support the case for earlier ECB easing in 2026, while stickiness in services would argue for patience. Eurozone sentiment: GfK consumer climate (Thu) and the ECB’s consumer expectations survey (Fri). Japan’s markets are closed Monday for Labor Thanksgiving Day; BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi speaks Thursday. Any nuance on the path for yield-curve control and negative rates exit remains JPY-relevant. China’s industrial profits (Thu) will be parsed for margins and pricing trends across upstream sectors. Equities: earnings and retail watch Retail and hardware dominate a lighter earnings slate: Big-box and electronics: Best Buy, Dell Technologies, HP. Software and semis: Autodesk, Analog Devices, NetApp. Travel and leisure: easyJet. UK consumer bellwethers: Kingfisher, Pets at Home, Halfords, AO World. Industrials: Deere & Co (capex and farm cycle read-through). China tech: Alibaba. What to listen for: Holiday promotions, traffic versus conversion, and margins under discounting pressure. PC/server cycle timing and AI-related spend mix. Inventory normalization and working capital as rates stay restrictive. UK discretionary exposure to the domestic budget measures. Fixed income Gilts are most sensitive midweek. Watch 2s/10s re-steepening risk if fiscal math leans on back-loaded consolidation. USTs typically experience holiday-week technicals: thin depth can amplify moves around Beige Book headlines. Curve shape remains a function of growth resilience versus the timing of 2026 cuts. Bunds take their cue from German CPI on Friday; front-end pricing will swing with services inflation. FX GBP: Budget credibility is key. Pro-growth supply-side signals would support GBP on the crosses; disappointment risks drift lower in quiet conditions. EUR: Sensitive to German/French CPI and ECB minutes. Signs of softer core inflation bolster a gradualist easing narrative for 2026. JPY: Holiday-thinned liquidity early week; Noguchi’s remarks could nudge rate-differential expectations. Keep an eye on global risk tone and UST yields. USD: Seasonal liquidity plus retail data pulse; range-bound bias with a data-lite backdrop. Commodities Crude: OPEC+ convenes at the end of the week/into the weekend. Any extension or deepening of supply management will set the tone for December. A geopolitical breakthrough in eastern Europe (uncertain) would point to lower risk premia. Metals: Sensitive to China industrial profits and any hints of policy follow-through on infrastructure. What matters for portfolios Expect air pockets: Holiday-thin markets can exaggerate moves. Consider tighter stops and smaller position sizes. Event sequencing favors patience: Budget (Wed) and Beige Book (Wed) land into low-liquidity conditions; volatility could cluster late Wednesday into Friday’s European inflation prints. Barbell positioning still makes sense: Quality balance sheets and cash generative tech on one end; selective cyclicals levered to any UK pro-investment pivot on the other. The calendar (selected) Monday Japan: Labor Thanksgiving Day (markets closed) ECB President Lagarde keynote in Bratislava (AI and education) UK: CBI annual conference Singapore: October CPI Company results: Zoom, Agilent, Keysight, Prosus, Julius Baer Tuesday Germany: Q3 GDP estimate France: INSEE consumer confidence US: Conference Board consumer confidence Company results: Alibaba, Best Buy, Dell, HP, Analog Devices, Autodesk, NetApp, easyJet, Compass Group, Kingfisher, AO World, Cranswick, Beazley (update), JM Smucker Wednesday US: Federal Reserve Beige Book Australia: October CPI Japan: Services PPI Germany: Labour market report Company results: Deere & Co, Pets at Home, Safestore, Impax AM, Speedy Hire Thursday US: Thanksgiving (markets closed; early close Friday) ECB: Minutes of the latest policy meeting Germany: GfK consumer climate China: Industrial profits BoE MPC member Megan Greene speaks;

Weekly Global Market News – Nov 24 Read More »

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