PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Weekly Global Market News – february Week 3

Weekly Global Market News – February -Week 3 A holiday-shortened start and Asia’s festive calendar will thin liquidity early in the week, but the macro and earnings flow intensifies from Tuesday onward. Headline drivers include a heavy slate of inflation prints across advanced economies, the latest read on the US policy outlook via FOMC minutes, flash PMIs on Friday, and China’s loan prime rate decision. On the corporate side, global miners dominate with results that will ripple across iron ore, copper, and gold, while selected tech, consumer, industrials, and energy names provide important micro clues on demand, pricing power, and capital allocation. Market conditions and closures US: Presidents’ Day on Monday; cash equities, Treasuries, and futures observe holiday hours. Latin America: Brazil and Argentina are closed Monday and Tuesday for Carnival. Asia: Lunar New Year-related closures keep mainland China shut most of the week; Hong Kong runs a half-day Monday then resumes Friday. South Korea observes Seollal for three days. Key themes to watch 1.Inflation pulse and policy path UK CPI and PPI (Wed): Services inflation stickiness vs base effects is central to the BoE’s cut timeline. A firm print would support front-end gilt yields and underpin GBP into week’s end retail sales. Euro area components (Germany, France; Tue/Wed): January readings help refine the ECB’s handoff from disinflation to timing cuts in H2. Japan CPI (Fri) and Q4 GDP (Mon): A firm core outcome and resilient growth bolster the case for the BoJ’s eventual policy normalization; watch JGB term premium and yen sensitivity. Canada CPI (Tue): Core measures and shelter components are pivotal for the BoC’s mid-year easing narrative. Germany PPI (Fri): Producer prices continue to guide margin dynamics and potential disinflation carry-through. 2. Central bank signals FOMC minutes (Wed): Market focus on balance between patience and data dependence on cuts. Any color on QT glidepath and inflation risk asymmetry will steer the front end of the US curve and the dollar. China LPR decision (Fri): With growth support in focus, watch for a targeted easing bias; credit impulse implications are key for copper, iron ore, and China-sensitive equities. 3. Global growth nowcast Flash PMIs (Fri, US/UK/Eurozone/Japan/others): Manufacturing stabilization vs services resilience; new orders and prices-paid subindices will be read for margin and inventory signals. UK retail sales and public finances (Fri): Consumption breadth after the holiday period; implications for domestic cyclicals and gilts. EU industrial production (Mon) and construction output (Thu): Capex temperature check across the bloc. 4. Earnings: Miners lead, with cross-asset read-throughs Diversified miners: BHP, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American, Antofagasta, Newmont, Kinross, Pan African Resources (Tue–Fri). Focus on: Price decks and sensitivity to iron ore, copper, and gold. Capex discipline vs growth optionality; decarbonization and permitting updates. Unit costs, FX tailwinds, logistics and energy inputs. Dividend and buyback frameworks amid volatile commodity strips. Energy: Occidental, Repsol (Thu). Watch capex, shale productivity, free cash flow allocation, and commentary on supply discipline. Industrials/building materials: CRH, Deere & Co, Airbus, Mondi, Renault (Thu). Construction volumes, backlogs, and pricing carry; aero supply chain cadence. Consumer and staples: Walmart, Nestlé, Carrefour, Pernod Ricard, Moncler, InterContinental Hotels, Live Nation (Tue–Thu). Volumes vs price/mix, private-label trade-up/down, travel and events momentum, China reopening after holidays. Tech and payments-adjacent: Palo Alto Networks, Analog Devices, Cadence, eBay, DoorDash, Etsy, Akamai (Tue–Thu). Cybersecurity budget resilience, AI hardware cycle timing, inventory normalization in semis, e-commerce take rates and cost discipline. Financials and utilities/insurance: Zurich Insurance, Centrica, Consolidated Edison, Aegon, Suncorp (Wed–Thu). Cat losses, solvency metrics, rate sensitivity, retail energy margins. Asset-class playbook FX USD: Range-bound into Wednesday’s minutes; upside risks if growth momentum remains firm. GBP: Two-way risk around CPI/retail sales; firmer data would support sterling and front-end gilt yields. JPY: Sensitive to Japan CPI/GDP; hawkish BoJ expectations could re-steepen JGBs and buoy yen. CAD: CPI surprise steers BoC cut probabilities; watch CAD crosses for volatility. AUD: Labor force data (Thu) in focus; a firm print tempers early cuts pricing. CNH: Holiday-thinned flows; LPR bias and any growth guidance could set the tone into month-end. Rates US: Curve dynamics hinge on minutes and Friday’s GDP update; stickier inflation favors bear-flattener risk. UK: Gilts vulnerable to services CPI; pay attention to breakevens. Euro area: Bunds track core inflation and PMIs; construction/IP softness still a support tailwind. Japan: JGB term premium sensitive to CPI and policy normalization chatter. Equities Expect dispersion: commodity producers, AI-adjacent names, and defensives may decouple. Low Monday liquidity can amplify moves in Europe; watch for gap risk when US reopens Tuesday. Commodities Iron ore and copper: Guided by miners’ capex/cost outlooks and China tone post-holidays. Gold: Real-yield path and central bank demand remain supportive on dips. Oil: Macro growth tone and inventory data to drive spreads; energy equities guided by capital return commentary. Event radar India’s AI Impact Summit in New Delhi (Mon–Fri): High-profile tech and industry leaders discuss AI deployment and infrastructure. Semis, hyperscale capex, and enterprise software guidance will be parsed for spend intentions and timelines. Political and geopolitical watch: Developments in the Middle East and broader US policy headlines may add episodic risk to energy and haven flows. The week’s calendar at a glance Monday Market closures: US (Presidents’ Day), Brazil and Argentina (Carnival), South Korea (Seollal), China (Lunar New Year week), Hong Kong (half-day). Data: EU industrial production (Dec), India WPI (Jan); Japan and Switzerland Q4 GDP first estimates; UK Rightmove house prices (Feb). Earnings: Bridgestone (FY). Tuesday Data: Canada CPI (Jan); Germany CPI/HICP (Jan); UK labor market stats, flash productivity (Q4), ONS housebuilding; US Conference Board Employment Trends Index. Earnings: Antofagasta (FY), BHP (HY), Cadence Design Systems (Q4/FY), Caesars Entertainment (Q4/FY), Carrefour (FY), DTE Energy (Q4/FY), Fluor (Q4/FY), Genuine Parts (Q4/FY), Havas (FY), InterContinental Hotels (FY), Kenvue (Q4/FY), Kerry Group (FY), Medtronic (Q3), Palo Alto Networks (Q2), Vulcan Materials (Q4/FY). Wednesday Data: France CPI (Jan); Germany labor market (Q4); UK CPI and PPI (Jan), UK house price indices and private rents (Feb). Central banks: FOMC minutes (Jan meeting). Earnings: Analog Devices (Q1), BAE Systems (FY), Celanese (Q4/FY), Conduit Re (FY),

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February 13 – Daily Market Update

13 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily | Broad Market Update Overview Global markets are treading cautiously ahead of a key US inflation print. US equity futures are slightly lower, European stocks are softer, and the dollar is a touch firmer. Asian trading was mixed, with Hong Kong underperforming. Bond markets are steady to marginally weaker as traders balance hopes for rate cuts later this year against signs that underlying price pressures may prove stickier than previously assumed. Crypto assets are firmer, and select commodity prices are consolidating. Snapshot (approximate, 06:20 ET) US equity futures: modestly lower (around -0.3%) Europe: Stoxx 600 slightly in the red (about -0.3%) US dollar: marginally stronger (roughly +0.1% on a broad index) Asia: Hong Kong notably weaker (down nearly 1.7%) Bitcoin: higher (around +1.5%–2%) What’s driving markets All eyes on inflation: Today’s US consumer price reading is poised to set the near-term tone for rates and risk assets. An upside surprise could challenge the consensus for multiple rate cuts later this year, while a softer print would likely revive the “soft-landing” narrative. Rates debate: Front-end yields remain sensitive to data surprises. While markets still discount rate reductions this year, the path and timing remain in flux amid resilient growth and evidence of lingering services inflation. Dollar bid, commodities mixed: The greenback’s mild strength reflects pre-data caution. Base metals are consolidating amid shifting policy headlines, while energy prices are range-bound as supply dynamics offset demand questions. AI jitters cool, but rotations persist: After a bout of AI-driven volatility and sharp factor rotations, equity markets stabilized. Still, investor positioning remains highly responsive to headlines about automation and productivity, with periodic knock-on effects across software, logistics, financial services, and professional industries. Equities US: The tape is balanced ahead of the data. Semiconductor equipment names have benefited from constructive guidance tied to capacity and AI-related demand. By contrast, some ad-driven internet platforms have faced pressure on softer revenue commentary, while select streaming and connected-TV names saw relief on better-than-feared results. An EV manufacturer’s progress toward profitability has supported sentiment in that niche. Europe: Consumer and luxury-linked names lagged after softer sales updates in select categories, reinforcing a defensive tone. Broader indices remain range-bound as investors await US macro catalysts. Asia: Hong Kong underperformed on renewed growth concerns, while other regional markets were mixed as earnings season and global rate expectations guided flows. Fixed income and FX Treasuries: Yields are little changed to slightly higher into the CPI release. The curve remains in a holding pattern, with two- to five-year maturities most sensitive to any re-pricing of the Fed path. Global bonds: Core European yields track US moves; peripheral spreads are stable. Credit markets remain orderly, though bid-offer typically widens around major data. FX: The dollar firmed modestly on event risk hedging. High-beta and cyclical currencies are range-trading; the yen remains driven by relative policy expectations and US yield direction. Commodities and crypto Commodities: Industrial metals are steady to softer amid trade-policy headlines and growth worries. Oil holds in a tight band as supply risks offset macro caution. Gold is little changed, reflecting the push-pull between real yields and hedging demand. Digital assets: Crypto benchmarks are firmer after recent volatility. Institutional interest and flows remain supportive, but positioning is highly reactive to macro data and regulatory developments. Primary markets and corporate flow New issuance: Signs of select US IPO postponements and resized offerings reflect a more discerning tone on valuations and near-term demand. Seasoned issuers in investment-grade and high yield continue to access markets, but windows may narrow around data prints. Earnings pulse: Reporting volume is slowing into the long weekend. A handful of consumer and healthcare names report before the open; guidance and margin commentary remain the key swing factors for single-stock moves. The day ahead — key things to watch US CPI: Core services momentum, shelter disinflation pace, and goods pricing will be dissected for clues on the durability of progress toward target. Rate expectations: Watch front-end yields, Fed-dated OIS, and terminal-rate pricing post-release. Equity leadership: Semis and AI-adjacent beneficiaries versus defensives; any rotation after the data could set the tone into month-end. Liquidity: Expect wider spreads and quicker price gaps around the print; levels may normalize into the afternoon if outcomes meet consensus. Risk considerations Event risk: Macro surprises can prompt outsized moves in rates, FX, and cyclicals. Hedging and disciplined risk limits are advisable around releases. Policy and trade: Shifts in tariff frameworks and industrial policy can influence metals, industrials, and global supply-chain plays. Earnings and guidance: With macro uncertainty elevated, forward guidance remains a primary driver of dispersion across sectors. This material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets are volatile and may move quickly following economic data or policy developments. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and

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Futures Pricing And Valuation

Leave a Comment / Educational Blogs, Exchange Traded Derivatives, Futures Contracts / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Futures Pricing And Valuation Table of Contents What is the Fundamental Difference Between Futures Pricing and Valuation? How is the ‘Fair Value’ of a Futures Contract Calculated? What Do ‘Contango’ and ‘Backwardation’ Tell Us About Market Sentiment? How Does Daily ‘Mark-to-Market’ Valuation Impact My Account? Can Arbitrage Opportunities Arise from Pricing Inefficiencies? Conclusion What is the Fundamental Difference Between Futures Pricing and Valuation? While often used interchangeably in casual conversation, pricing and valuation represent two distinct concepts in the derivatives market. Futures pricing refers to the current market price at which a contract trades on an exchange. This price is determined by the interaction of supply and demand in real-time, reflecting the aggregate consensus of buyers and sellers regarding the future value of an underlying asset. It is dynamic, fluctuating constantly throughout the trading day as new information enters the market. Valuation, on the other hand, is a theoretical or mathematical assessment of what that contract should be worth based on specific economic factors. This is often referred to as “Fair Value.” Professional traders and institutional investors compare the theoretical valuation against the actual market price to identify discrepancies. If the market price deviates significantly from the fair value, it may signal an overbought or oversold condition, providing a potential entry or exit point. Understanding this distinction is crucial for anyone navigating futures fundamentals, as it shifts the focus from simple speculation to calculated risk assessment. How is the ‘Fair Value’ of a Futures Contract Calculated? The calculation of fair value relies heavily on the Cost of Carry model. This model assumes that the futures price should theoretically equal the spot price of the underlying asset plus the cost of holding that asset until the contract’s expiration date. The formula generally accounts for three primary components: Spot Price: The current market price of the asset (e.g., Gold, S&P 500, or Crude Oil). Financing Costs (Interest): The cost of borrowing capital to purchase the underlying asset. Storage or Carrying Costs: Relevant for commodities like oil or wheat, where physical storage incurs fees. Income (Dividends or Yields): Any income generated by the asset (such as stock dividends) is subtracted, as holding a futures contract typically does not entitle the holder to these payouts. For example, when trading equity indices, the fair value is the spot price plus interest, minus expected dividends. If the futures price trades significantly higher than this calculated fair value, the market is pricing in a premium, potentially due to bullish sentiment or higher expected interest rates. Conversely, a price below fair value might indicate bearish sentiment. Master Global Markets with Advanced Tools Access top-tier liquidity and diverse asset classes Explore Futures & Options Products What Do ‘Contango’ and ‘Backwardation’ Tell Us About Market Sentiment? The relationship between the spot price and the futures price creates a “forward curve,” and the shape of this curve offers critical insights into market conditions. Contango: This occurs when the futures price is higher than the spot price. This is considered the “normal” market structure for non-perishable commodities because of the Cost of Carry (storage and interest). However, a steep contango curve can indicate that the market expects the asset’s price to rise significantly in the future. Backwardation: This is the opposite scenario, where the futures price is lower than the spot price. This is often a signal of immediate shortage or high demand for the physical asset now. For instance, if there is a supply disruption in the oil market, refiners might pay a premium for immediate delivery, pushing spot prices above future delivery prices.Recognizing these states is essential when understanding futures contracts, as rolling over a position in a contango market can be costly (selling low expiring contracts to buy high expensive ones), whereas backwardation can be profitable for long-term holders rolling positions. How Does Daily ‘Mark-to-Market’ Valuation Impact My Account? Unlike traditional stock trading where gains or losses are realized only when you sell the asset, futures operate on a daily settlement cycle known as Mark-to-Market (MTM). At the end of every trading day, the exchange calculates the settlement price for all open contracts. If the market moves in your favor, the profit is immediately credited to your account. If the market moves against you, the loss is debited. This daily valuation ensures that the exchange maintains financial integrity and prevents the accumulation of massive, unrecoverable debts. This mechanism highlights the importance of maintaining sufficient margin. If a daily debit reduces your account balance below the required maintenance margin, you will receive a margin call and must deposit additional funds immediately. This is a key feature of how futures exchanges work, acting as a safeguard for the entire financial ecosystem. Start Your Trading Journey Today Open a regulated account with a trusted partner in DIFC. Open An Account Can Arbitrage Opportunities Arise from Pricing Inefficiencies? Yes, pricing inefficiencies often create opportunities for arbitrage, particularly for sophisticated traders and institutions. Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage is a common strategy used when a futures contract is overpriced relative to its fair value. In this scenario, a trader might: Borrow money to buy the underlying asset (Spot) today. Simultaneously sell the equivalent futures contract (Short) at the higher price. Hold the asset until the futures contract expires and deliver it to settle the short position. If the premium on the futures price is high enough to cover the cost of borrowing and storage, the trader locks in a risk-free profit. While high-frequency trading algorithms often correct these discrepancies in milliseconds, understanding the mechanics of arbitrage helps investors grasp why derivatives trading is so efficient at price discovery. It ensures that futures prices rarely drift too far from the reality of the underlying physical market. Conclusion Mastering the nuances of pricing and valuation is what separates speculative participants from strategic investors in the futures market. By understanding the components of Fair Value—such as interest rates, storage costs, and dividends—investors can better gauge whether a contract is cheap or expensive. Furthermore, monitoring the forward curve for Contango

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February 12 – Daily Market Update

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Daily Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

12 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily — Broad Market Update Overview Global equities are starting the day with a constructive tone as gains in Europe and across much of Asia set the stage for a modestly higher US open. Leadership continues to broaden beyond the US, with several Asian markets and select Latin American benchmarks outpacing major US indices so far this year. A softer dollar and steady credit conditions are supporting risk appetite, while investors continue to rotate toward cyclicals and rate‑sensitive areas alongside ongoing interest in AI‑linked beneficiaries. Equities US: Futures signal a firmer open, with breadth improving beyond mega-cap tech. Transports, industrials and select financials have shown relative strength as freight volumes, travel demand, and capital spending expectations stabilize. Software and certain ad-tech names remain more mixed as investors sort through AI-related competitive dynamics. Europe: Regional indices are higher on a wave of company updates, with beats and improved guidance out of several sectors helping sentiment. Defensives remain well bid, but cyclical groups tied to logistics, travel, and manufacturing have led recent outperformance. Asia: Markets broadly advanced, with North Asia continuing to benefit from demand across the semiconductor and AI supply chains. Corporate reforms and shareholder-return initiatives remain supportive in parts of the region. ASEAN and India trade mixed as valuations and policy outlooks are reassessed following a strong multi‑year run. Style and factors: Momentum has cooled at the very top of US tech while value, quality, and income factors gain traction. Earnings revision breadth is improving outside the US, adding to the case for regional diversification. Rates and Credit Sovereigns: US Treasury yields are little changed in early trade, with the curve holding recent ranges as markets await the next round of inflation and activity data. European core yields are steady to slightly higher alongside firmer risk sentiment. Credit: Investment-grade spreads remain tight and high-yield risk premiums are stable. Primary issuance is active, with healthy order books pointing to robust demand for carry. Currencies The dollar index is edging lower, aiding risk assets and commodities. High-beta FX is firmer on the back of stronger global growth expectations, while the yen remains sensitive to policy signaling and rate differentials. Select EM currencies are steady, with idiosyncratic drivers continuing to dominate. Commodities Energy: Crude is rangebound as supply developments offset demand optimism tied to improved growth signals in Asia. Refining margins and inventory trends remain in focus. Metals: Industrial metals are mixed; copper and aluminum find support on infrastructure and data-center buildout demand, while near-term macro uncertainty caps rallies. Precious: Gold is steady, with real yields and dollar moves remaining the key drivers. Digital Assets Major tokens are modestly higher. Liquidity thins into weekends and during off-hours, which can amplify moves; positioning and options expiries remain important near-term catalysts. Corporate and Deal Flow Themes Asset management consolidation continues to gather pace as firms seek scale, distribution reach, and technology investment. AI remains a capital magnet, with large private funding rounds underscoring investor conviction in foundational models and enterprise adoption. Health care news flow is active, with leadership changes and regulatory milestones producing outsized single‑stock moves. Payments and fintech updates highlight a recalibration of revenue growth expectations; unit economics and international expansion are key differentiators. Consumer staples and food brands are under scrutiny as portfolio reshaping and pricing power normalize post‑pandemic. Travel, logistics, and freight have re-rated higher on improving demand data and efficiency gains. Key Themes We’re Watching Regional rotation: Outperformance outside the US suggests a broader leadership handoff. Valuations, earnings revisions, and currency dynamics support a case for diversified exposure. Cyclicals vs. secular growth: AI-related beneficiaries remain core to long-term tech spending, but cyclical groups tied to transport, capital goods, and travel are capturing incremental flows as growth expectations stabilize. Policy path: Central bank communication and incoming inflation prints remain pivotal for duration, rate-sensitive equities, and FX trends. Liquidity and market structure: Thinner trading conditions during off-hours can exacerbate swings in crypto and smaller-cap equities; be mindful of leverage and key technical levels. Earnings quality over headlines: Cash flow durability, pricing power, and balance sheet strength are being rewarded more consistently than top-line beats alone. What’s Ahead Macro: Inflation, retail sales, and housing updates across major economies; central bank speakers and minutes. Micro: A busy earnings slate across airlines, payments, semiconductors, travel platforms, and select industrials. Guidance on 2026 capex, AI monetization, and margin trajectories will be in focus. Portfolio Considerations Diversification: Rebalance US-heavy allocations to include select Asia and Europe exposures where earnings revisions and policy tailwinds look favorable. Quality bias: Favor companies with strong free cash flow, resilient margins, and reasonable leverage. Balance secular and cyclical: Pair AI and cloud infrastructure beneficiaries with transportation, logistics, and other economically sensitive names showing improving demand. Currency: Consider hedging where dollar softness or volatility could materially impact returns. Risk management: Use disciplined position sizing and stop‑loss protocols, especially into low‑liquidity windows. This material is for information purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Markets are volatile; consider your objectives and risk tolerance before making investment dec Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and

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The Inverse Relationship Between Bond Prices and Yields

Leave a Comment / Fixed Income, Bond Pricing And Valuation, Educational Blogs / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

The Inverse Relationship Between Bond Prices and Yields Table of Contents Understanding the Fundamentals of Fixed Income Why Do Bond Prices and Yields Move in Opposite Directions? The Role of Central Banks and Interest Rates Duration and Convexity: Measuring Sensitivity Strategic Implications for Investors Conclusion Understanding the Fundamentals of Fixed Income What is the core definition of a bond yield compared to its price? To navigate the fixed-income markets effectively, investors must first distinguish between the face value of a bond and its market price. When you purchase a bond, you are essentially lending capital to an issuer—whether a government or a corporation. The price is the amount you pay for that bond today, which can fluctuate based on market demand. The yield, specifically the Yield to Maturity (YTM), is the total return anticipated on a bond if the bond is held until it matures. It is expressed as an annual percentage. While the coupon rate (the interest paid) typically remains fixed, the yield fluctuates dynamically. This distinction is critical because, in the secondary market, bonds rarely trade at their exact face value (par). They trade at a premium or a discount, and this price variance directly dictates the yield an investor effectively locks in. For a deeper dive into the mechanics of these instruments, you can explore our detailed guide on what a bond is and how it works, which breaks down the terminology of coupons, principal, and maturity dates for new investors. Why Do Bond Prices and Yields Move in Opposite Directions? What is the mathematical and logical reasoning behind the “Seesaw Effect”? The inverse relationship between bond prices and yields is often described as a “seesaw.” When prices go up, yields go down, and vice versa. This is not merely a market anomaly; it is a mathematical certainty required to keep the bond competitive with newer issues. Imagine a scenario where you hold a bond issued five years ago with a fixed coupon of 5%. If prevailing interest rates in the economy rise to 6%, no rational investor would pay full price for your 5% bond when they can buy a new one paying 6%. To sell your existing bond, you must lower its price (sell it at a discount) until its effective yield matches the new 6% market rate. Conversely, if market rates fall to 4%, your 5% bond becomes highly valuable. Investors will bid up its price (trading at a premium) until the yield compresses down to match the 4% environment. This dynamic ensures that older bonds remain liquid and tradable against new government and corporate bond issues, maintaining equilibrium in the global capital markets. Master the Fixed Income Market Access Global Bonds & Debentures with PhillipCapital DIFC Explore Bond Trading Products The Role of Central Banks and Interest Rates How do Federal Reserve and Central Bank policies impact this relationship? Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve or the ECB, exert a gravitational pull on bond markets. When a central bank raises its benchmark interest rate to combat inflation, the immediate effect is a reset in the cost of borrowing. New bonds are issued with higher coupons to reflect this higher base rate. As a result, the prices of existing bonds—which carry lower, older coupon rates—must fall significantly to align with the new, higher-yield environment. This period is often characterized by capital depreciation for holders of long-term debt. Conversely, when central banks cut rates to stimulate the economy, existing bonds with higher coupons become prized assets, seeing their prices appreciate. Investors monitoring these macroeconomic shifts often look at Investment Grade vs. Non-Investment Grade bonds to decide where to position their capital, as different credit ratings react with varying volatility to interest rate announcements. Duration and Convexity: Measuring Sensitivity Why does the maturity of a bond amplify price volatility? Not all bonds react to yield changes with the same intensity. This sensitivity is measured by a concept called Duration. In simple terms, duration estimates how much a bond’s price will change for a 1% change in interest rates. Long-term bonds generally have a higher duration than short-term bonds. For instance, a 30-year Treasury bond will see a much sharper price decline than a 2-year Treasury note if interest rates rise by the same amount. This is because the cash flows (coupons) of the long-term bond are further in the future, making them more vulnerable to the eroding effects of inflation and opportunity cost. For professional investors managing complex portfolios, understanding duration (and the curvature of this relationship, known as Convexity) is essential for hedging risk, especially when trading derivatives and futures alongside cash bonds. Strategic Implications for Investors How can investors turn this inverse relationship into an opportunity? Understanding that prices and yields move inversely allows investors to employ specific strategies based on their economic outlook: Riding the Yield Curve: In a stable interest rate environment, investors might buy longer-term bonds to capture higher yields, profiting as the bond rolls down the yield curve closer to maturity. Defensive Positioning: If an investor anticipates a rate hike (which hurts bond prices), they may shorten the duration of their portfolio. This involves shifting capital into short-term bills or notes that are less sensitive to price drops. Capital Appreciation: If an economic slowdown is forecast and rate cuts are expected, investors might lock in long-term bonds. As rates fall, the prices of these bonds will rise, offering significant capital gains on top of the coupon income. Diversification is key here. Integrating fixed income alongside global equities and ETFs ensures that a portfolio can withstand volatility in any single asset class. Expert Guidance for Your Portfolio Speak to our desk for personalized market insights Contact Now Conclusion The inverse relationship between bond prices and yields is the foundational gravity of the fixed-income universe. Whether you are a retail investor seeking stable coupons or a professional trader managing duration risk, acknowledging that higher yields equate to lower prices (and vice versa) is the first step toward clearer market analysis.

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February 11 – Daily Market Update

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Daily Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

11 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily — Broad Market Update Market snapshot (as of 6:06 a.m. ET) US equity futures: flat to slightly lower (S&P 500 futures near 6961, -0.01%) Europe: Stoxx 600 around 619.6, -0.22% Asia: Hang Seng closed up roughly 0.3% near 27266 US dollar: softer by about 0.3% on a broad trade-weighted basis Bitcoin: near $66600, down roughly 2.9% US Treasuries: yields edging lower across the curve Macro and policy “Bad news is good news” is back in focus. Softer data have reinforced expectations that major central banks, led by the Fed, could begin easing later this year. Markets are leaning toward multiple rate cuts in 2026, though timing remains data-dependent. Today’s US labor-market update will be pivotal. Traders will watch headline payrolls, the unemployment rate, participation, average hourly earnings, and—critically—revisions to prior months. A cooler set of numbers would bolster the case for earlier policy support; an upside surprise could push back those timelines. Global growth signals are mixed: Europe continues to show uneven momentum, while Asia’s tech‑heavy markets have benefited from the weaker dollar and ongoing demand for semiconductors and AI infrastructure. Equities US: Index futures are steady as investors balance resilient mega-cap tech leadership with late‑cycle dynamics favoring quality balance sheets and cash flow. Rate‑sensitive segments tend to benefit when yields fall, while small caps remain more volatile around macro surprises. Europe: Modest declines in early trade as investors digest earnings, cost‑reduction plans, and guidance resets. Defensive pockets (utilities, staples, healthcare) are finding support when bond yields ease, while cyclicals trade more on growth and China‑linked headlines. Asia: Mixed session. Tech‑oriented markets continue to attract flows on AI hardware demand, while parts of Greater China remain range‑bound amid policy and property‑sector uncertainty. Rates and credit US Treasuries are firmer, with the belly of the curve leading on softer growth signals. A cool employment print would likely extend the rally and favor a bull‑steepening bias; a hotter release risks a reversal with front‑end yields most sensitive. Investment‑grade credit spreads are broadly stable; high yield trades in a tight range but remains sensitive to earnings surprises and any pickup in default chatter. Currencies The dollar is easing for a fourth session as rate‑cut probabilities firm. A benign wage‑inflation number would likely keep the pressure on the greenback; stronger earnings growth could flip the script. G10: Euro and pound are firmer against the dollar; yen steadies as US yields dip. Select commodity currencies are consolidating after recent gains. Commodities and crypto Oil: Range‑bound as supply risks and inventory dynamics offset growth concerns. Positioning remains cautious ahead of key macro prints. Gold: Supported by lower real yields and a softer dollar; ETF flows remain the swing factor. Digital assets: Bitcoin is retracing after a strong multi‑week run; intra‑day volatility remains elevated around liquidity pockets and risk sentiment. Theme to watch: The AI dispersion Markets are recalibrating winners and potential laggards from rapid AI adoption. Hardware beneficiaries and energy‑efficient infrastructure remain in focus, while parts of software, services, and select financial niches face headline‑driven volatility. Expect continued differentiation at the single‑name level as business models adapt and pricing power is tested. Event radar US labor market report: headline jobs, unemployment rate, participation, average hourly earnings, and prior‑month revisions Central bank speakers and minutes across major economies Corporate earnings: watch forward‑guidance language, cost discipline, AI investment pacing, and capital‑return updates Trading lens: What could move markets today Weaker‑than‑expected jobs/wage data: likely bullish duration, softer dollar, supportive for rate‑sensitives and quality growth Stronger‑than‑expected jobs/wage data: potential bear‑flattening in rates, dollar bounce, factor rotation toward cyclical/value and financials Big revisions: could meaningfully reshape the narrative even if the headline meets estimates House view highlights Macro remains a tug‑of‑war between cooling growth and prospective policy support. Near term, data beats/misses will likely drive sharp, factor‑level rotations more than index‑directional trends. Stay selective within equities, with an emphasis on quality balance sheets and durable cash flow. In fixed income, carry remains attractive, but duration should be sized with event risk in mind. Important information This material is for information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or strategy. Markets are volatile and can move quickly around economic releases and company news. Consider your objectives, risk tolerance, and local regulations before making investment decisions. Market levels and performance figures referenced above are indicative and subject to change. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed as personal advice. For retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of our retail client accounts lose money while trading with us. You should consider whether you understand how Rolling Spot Contracts and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. February 11 – Daily Market Update February 11, 2026 11 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily —… Read More February 10 – Daily Market Update February 10, 2026 10 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily: Caution… Read More February 4 – Daily Market Update February 4, 2026 4 february 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily: Broad… Read More February 3 –

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Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP)

Leave a Comment / Educational Blogs, Trading Strategies / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP) Mastering Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP): A Strategic Approach to Balanced Investing As global markets evolve, investors often find themselves torn between two primary philosophies: the high-octane potential of growth stocks and the disciplined safety of value investing. However, there is a sophisticated middle ground that seeks to capture the best of both worlds. Growth at Reasonable Price, or GARP, is an investment strategy designed to identify companies with consistent earnings growth that are not yet overvalued by the market. Table of Contents What defines the GARP investment philosophy? How does GARP differ from pure Growth and Value strategies? What are the key metrics used to identify GARP stocks? Why is the PEG Ratio considered the “Gold Standard” for GARP? How does GARP help in managing portfolio risk? Conclusion: Achieving Long-Term Wealth with GARP What defines the GARP investment philosophy? Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP) is a disciplined equity selection strategy that prioritizes companies demonstrating sustainable earnings growth while trading at sensible valuations. Unlike pure growth investors, who might ignore high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios in favor of rapid expansion, a GARP investor remains price-sensitive. The goal is to avoid “buying the hype” and instead focus on wealth management and structured notes that emphasize fundamental strength. A true GARP candidate typically exhibits higher-than-average growth compared to the broader market but avoids the astronomical valuations often seen in speculative sectors. By seeking out these “under-the-radar” compounders, investors aim for steady capital appreciation with a lower risk of significant drawdowns when market sentiment shifts. How does GARP differ from pure Growth and Value strategies? To understand GARP, one must view it as the bridge between two extremes. Growth investors look for “the next big thing,” often paying a premium for companies with skyrocketing revenues but little to no current profit. Conversely, value investors look for “bargains”—companies trading below their intrinsic value. GARP sits in the “sweet spot.” It avoids the risks highlighted in a growth investing strategy—where high-risk can lead to high volatility—and bypasses the stagnation often found in pure value traps. This balanced approach is essential for identifying quality over speculation. While a value stock might have a P/E of 8 and a growth stock a P/E of 50, a GARP stock might sit comfortably at a P/E of 20, supported by a healthy 20% earnings growth rate. Optimize Your Portfolio Strategy Explore tailored investment avenues with our expert team in the DIFC. Learn More About Our Services What are the key metrics used to identify GARP stocks? Identifying a GARP stock requires a deep dive into fundamental analysis. Investors do not just look at the current price; they look at the trajectory of the business and the efficiency of its operations. Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth: GARP investors typically look for companies that have grown their earnings by 10% to 20% consistently. Return on Equity (ROE): High ROE indicates that a company is efficiently using its shareholders’ capital to generate profit. Sustainable Margins: Consistent profit margins suggest a company has a competitive “moat” or advantage. For those focusing on global equities, these metrics serve as essential filters to separate speculative volatility from sustainable growth. Why is the PEG Ratio considered the “Gold Standard” for GARP? The Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio is the primary tool for any GARP practitioner. It is calculated by dividing a stock’s P/E ratio by its earnings growth rate. A PEG ratio of 1.0 suggests that the stock is perfectly valued relative to its growth. A PEG below 1.0 is often considered a “buy” signal, suggesting the market hasn’t fully priced in the company’s growth potential. By using the PEG ratio, an investor can justify paying a slightly higher P/E for a company that is growing rapidly. This mathematical discipline is a core component of institutional services where precision and valuation are paramount for managing large-scale capital. Ready to Trade Global Markets? Access international exchanges with PhillipCapital’s robust trading infrastructure Open an account How does GARP help in managing portfolio risk? Risk management is perhaps the greatest benefit of the GARP approach. During “bull markets,” GARP stocks participate in the upside because of their strong earnings. However, during “bear markets” or periods of high interest rates, they tend to be more resilient than speculative growth stocks because their valuations are grounded in actual profits. By integrating GARP into a broader trading strategy, investors can reduce “valuation risk” while avoiding the “stagnation risk” of declining industries. It provides a cushion of safety without sacrificing the potential for market-beating returns. Conclusion: Achieving Long-Term Wealth with GARP Growth at Reasonable Price is more than just a set of numbers; it is a mindset of moderation and discipline. By focusing on companies that exhibit solid growth prospects while maintaining reasonable P/E and PEG ratios, investors can build portfolios that are both aggressive in their pursuit of returns and conservative in their valuation requirements. For investors navigating the complexities of the global capital markets from the DIFC, the GARP strategy offers a path to sustainable wealth creation. It filters out the noise of market volatility and focuses on the fundamental truth that, over the long term, stock prices follow earnings—but only if the entry price is right. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Is GARP better than pure Value or Growth investing? GARP isn’t necessarily “better,” but it is more balanced. While growth stocks can skyrocket during bull markets and value stocks offer a safety net during downturns, GARP aims for consistent performance across both cycles. It filters out the extreme volatility of high-priced growth and the “value traps” of declining companies, making it a favorite for long-term investors seeking stability. What is a “good” PEG ratio for a GARP investor? Traditionally, a PEG ratio of 1.0 or lower is the gold standard for GARP. A ratio of 1.0 suggests a stock’s valuation is perfectly in sync with its earnings growth. If the PEG is below 1.0, the stock may be undervalued relative to its potential. However, in

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February 10 – Daily Market Update

Leave a Comment / Market Updates, Daily Market Updates / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

10 February 2026 – Daily Market Updates Markets Daily: Caution returns as rates nudge higher, Japan surges, and AI-driven dispersion deepens Global markets are mixed to start the day, with a guarded tone across risk assets as investors weigh shifting rate expectations, fresh politics in Japan, and a still-evolving narrative around artificial intelligence and software Market snapshot US equity futures: slightly lower, pointing to a softer Wall Street open after last week’s late rebound Europe: little changed overall, with sector rotation rather than clear index direction Rates: US 10-year Treasury yields are edging up, reflecting a modest back-up in real rates into a heavy data week Asia: Japan’s major equity benchmark leapt to new highs following a strong electoral outcome that reinforced policy continuity and reform momentum Commodities: gold is firmer after recent volatility; crude is steady ahead of industry outlooks due later in the week FX: the dollar is broadly steady; sterling remains sensitive to UK political headlines Top themes today Higher-for-longer jitters creep back in: A small rise in Treasury yields is keeping risk appetite in check. With key US data approaching, investors are reluctant to chase equities after last week’s swift recovery. Implied equity volatility remains above its recent average, a sign that hedging demand persists. AI is no longer a tide that lifts all boats: The market’s AI trade is becoming more selective. Instead of a broad-based lift across software and tech, leadership is narrowing to firms with clear monetization paths, defensible data, or infrastructure advantages. This is creating wider performance gaps both within tech and across adjacent sectors exposed to automation themes. Japan’s equity momentum strengthens: A decisive political result has bolstered expectations for continued pro-growth policy, corporate governance improvements, and capital efficiency gains. Earnings revisions and buyback activity remain key supports. Currency dynamics and the domestic rate path are additional levers to watch. China’s gradual reserve diversification draws muted market reaction: Reports that Chinese authorities are encouraging banks to trim concentrations in US government debt elicited only a modest move in Treasuries. The long-running trend of diversified reserve management has been offset over time by buying from other foreign investors and domestic demand, helping contain market impact. Commodities and positioning: Gold’s sharp swings last week underlined how crowded positioning and macro hedging can amplify moves. Oil traders will look to upcoming producer and agency reports for fresh guidance on balances, non-OPEC supply, and demand resilience. US session setup Equities: Futures point to a consolidation day. Under the surface, factor and sector dispersion remains elevated, with short covering having contributed to last week’s rebound in some of the most volatile names. Turnover trends suggest investors are adding selectively rather than re-risking broadly. Credit: Primary markets remain open, but rate volatility argues for opportunistic issuance windows and continued focus on balance-sheet quality. Rates: The modest bear-steepening bias into data is consistent with cautious duration positioning. FX: The dollar is stable; idiosyncratic political risks keep select European currencies on watch. The week ahead: data, policy, and earnings to watch Monday: Mexico inflation prints; comments expected from US and European central bank officials. Tuesday: US retail sales, small business sentiment, and employment cost data will provide a read on the consumer and wage trends; several large-cap companies in banking, beverages, autos, and media report results. Wednesday: China inflation data and producer prices; US nonfarm payrolls, jobless rate, and the federal budget update; energy market outlook from producers. Corporate updates include hospitality and enterprise tech. Thursday: Inflation releases from parts of Asia and Europe; UK growth and industrial production; US jobless claims and existing home sales; additional central bank speakers; global oil market outlook from international agencies; select crypto and fintech earnings. Friday: China home-price data; euro-area growth and country-level inflation updates; US consumer inflation—the key macro highlight into the weekend. What we’re watching Breadth and leadership: Can cyclical sectors and small/mid caps participate, or does performance remain concentrated in a handful of mega-cap and infrastructure plays? Earnings guidance vs. multiples: With rates elevated, the bar for richly valued names is higher. Watch free-cash-flow trajectories and margin commentary. Labor-market signals: Wage metrics and participation will help shape the path of services inflation and central-bank reaction functions. Duration and curve: A hotter CPI would likely keep the front end anchored higher-for-longer while challenging longer maturities; a cooler print could revive soft-landing positioning. FX spillovers: Political headlines and relative growth surprises may drive cross-currency volatility even if the broad dollar remains range-bound. Portfolio considerations (not investment advice) Quality bias: Favor stronger balance sheets, consistent cash generation, and pricing power while rates remain elevated. Diversify AI exposure: Consider a balanced approach across infrastructure, enablers, and proven applications rather than a blanket sector bet. Manage rate risk: For fixed income, a staggered-duration or barbell approach can help navigate data volatility. Hedging discipline: Elevated dispersion argues for keeping risk controls and hedges in place around major macro releases. Global mix: Japan’s reform and shareholder-return story remains a constructive long-term theme; monitor currency and policy dynamics. Key risks Upside inflation surprises or stickier services inflation Policy miscommunication amid a crowded central-bank speaker slate Geopolitical or election-related volatility spilling into rates and FX Liquidity pockets and mechanically driven flows (e.g., systematic or passive rebalancing) amplifying short-term swings This material is provided for information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, sector, or strategy. Markets are volatile and past performance is not indicative of future results. Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors as you could sustain losses in excess of deposits. The products are intended for retail, professional and eligible counterparty clients. Before deciding to trade any products offered by PhillipCapital (DIFC) Private Limited you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of the Website must not be construed

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Capital Protection Structures

Leave a Comment / Structured Products, Educational Blogs, Types of Structured Products, Uncategorized / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Capital Protection Structures Strategic Wealth Preservation: A Comprehensive Guide to Capital Protection Structures In an era of shifting global economic policies and market unpredictability, the priority for many investors has shifted from aggressive growth to strategic preservation. Capital protection structures have emerged as a cornerstone for those seeking a “middle path”—offering a safety net for principal investment while maintaining a gateway to market-driven returns. Table of Contents What exactly are Capital Protection Structures and how do they function? What are the primary financial components that make these structures work? Who should consider capital-protected strategies for their investment portfolio? What are the different levels of protection available to investors? How do interest rate cycles impact the efficiency of these structures? Conclusion: The Strategic Advantage of Protected Capital What exactly are Capital Protection Structures and how do they function? Capital protection structures are sophisticated financial instruments engineered to ensure that an investor receives at least their initial principal back at the end of a predefined term, regardless of market performance. This is achieved through a structured methodology that splits the investment into two distinct parts: a preservation element and a growth element. The preservation side is typically a low-risk, fixed-income security, while the growth side involves derivatives that track the performance of an underlying asset. When reviewing bespoke investment products and solutions, it becomes clear that these structures are not just about avoiding loss; they are about disciplined participation. By defining the “floor” of the investment, the investor can remain exposed to volatile assets like equities or commodities without the psychological or financial burden of a total capital drawdown. If the underlying market rises, the investor gains; if it falls, the “structure” ensures the initial capital remains intact at maturity. The role of participation rates in growth The “Participation Rate” dictates how much of the underlying asset’s growth the investor actually captures. For instance, a 100% participation rate means you gain 1:1 with the market, whereas a 70% rate means you capture 70% of the upside. This rate is determined at the outset based on the cost of market volatility and current interest levels. What are the primary financial components that make these structures work? The “engine” of a capital-protected product relies on two primary pillars. The first pillar is the Zero-Coupon Bond (ZCB). A significant portion of the initial capital is used to purchase a ZCB that matures at the full face value of the original investment. Because these bonds are bought at a discount, the remaining “leftover” cash forms the second pillar: the Option Component. For clients engaged with institutional-grade financial services, the selection of these components is critical. The “leftover” cash—often called the risk budget—is used to buy call options on an index or asset class. This dual-pillar system ensures that even if the options expire worthless (due to a market drop), the Zero-Coupon Bond has matured to 100% of the original investment value, fulfilling the protection promise. Looking for customizable exposure? Experience forward-like flexibility with easy-to-trade CFDs. Explore CFDs Who should consider capital-protected strategies for their investment portfolio? These structures are particularly effective for “cautiously optimistic” investors. This includes high-net-worth individuals who have already accumulated significant wealth and wish to transition from “wealth creation” to “wealth preservation.” It is also an ideal tool for institutional investors or trustees who are legally mandated to protect the principal of an endowment or pension fund. By following expert educational insights, investors can identify the right time to move capital from pure equity into protected structures. It allows you to stay “in the game” during periods of geopolitical tension or high inflation, providing a mathematical certainty that traditional balanced funds cannot always guarantee. What are the different levels of protection available to investors? Capital protection is not a “one-size-fits-all” concept. Depending on your specific goals, structures can be calibrated to offer different levels of security: 100% Capital Protection: The most conservative tier, ensuring the full return of the initial investment at maturity. Partial Protection (e.g., 90% or 95%): By risking a small portion of the principal (5-10%), the investor frees up more “risk budget” to purchase more options, significantly increasing the participation rate and potential upside. Hard vs. Soft Protection: Hard protection is a guarantee based on the issuer’s credit, whereas soft protection (barrier protection) may only apply if the market doesn’t fall below a specific “knock-out” level. How do interest rate cycles impact the efficiency of these structures? The viability of capital protection is intrinsically linked to the interest rate environment. In a high-interest-rate environment, Zero-Coupon Bonds are much cheaper to purchase because the discount is larger. This leaves more capital available to buy options, resulting in higher participation rates or even “geared” returns. Conversely, in low-interest-rate environments, the bond takes up most of the capital, making it harder to offer high upside potential. Staying updated with regular market updates and analysis allows investors to time their entry into these structures when rates are high to lock in the most favorable growth terms for the coming years. Access our full library of investor education and insights Deepen Your Market Knowledge Subtitle Browse Educational Blogs Conclusion: The Strategic Advantage of Protected Capital Capital protection structures offer a sophisticated solution to the age-old dilemma of risk versus reward. By utilizing a disciplined engineering approach—anchored by fixed-income security and fueled by derivative growth—investors can navigate volatile markets with confidence. These structures provide the peace of mind necessary to stay invested for the long term, ensuring that while the ceiling for growth remains high, the floor for your principal remains solid. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Are “Capital Protected” investments 100% risk-free? While these structures aim to return your initial principal at maturity, they are not entirely risk-free. The protection is a contractual promise by the issuer (usually a bank). If the issuing bank faces a credit default or bankruptcy, the guarantee may be at risk. Additionally, withdrawing funds before the official maturity date can result in penalties or a loss of principal. How do

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understanding dividend yield investment guide

Leave a Comment / Educational Blogs, Deliverable Equities, Stock Valuations / PhillipCapital DIFC Research Team

Dividend Yield The Strategic Guide to Dividend Yield: Maximizing Passive Income in Global Markets In the realm of wealth creation, few metrics are as revered—yet as frequently misunderstood—as the dividend yield. For investors navigating the complexities of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and broader global markets, dividend yield serves as a vital barometer for evaluating income-generating assets. This guide provides a comprehensive deep dive into the mechanics of dividend yields, their role in total return strategies, and how to distinguish sustainable payouts from “yield traps.” Table of Contents What is Dividend Yield and how is it calculated? Why do investors prioritize Dividend Yield over capital gains? What is the difference between Dividend Yield and Dividend Payout Ratio? What are the risks of a high Dividend Yield? How does Dividend Yield impact a total return strategy? Conclusion: Integrating Yield into a Robust Portfolio What is Dividend Yield and how is it calculated? Dividend yield is a financial ratio that represents the annual dividend income an investment pays out relative to its current share price. It is expressed as a percentage and provides a snapshot of the “cash flow” return an investor receives for every dollar (or dirham) invested in a stock or fund. To calculate the yield, you divide the annual dividends per share by the current price per share. For example, if a company pays an annual dividend of $5 and the stock is trading at $100, the dividend yield is 5%. It is important to note that because the denominator is the stock price, the yield fluctuates daily. When stock prices fall, yields rise, which often attracts value investors looking for entry points in equities and global markets. Understanding these fundamentals is the first step toward mastering stock market basics and building a resilient portfolio. Why do investors prioritize Dividend Yield over capital gains? While capital gains rely on the market’s willingness to pay a higher price for a stock in the future, dividend yield provides tangible, realized profit in the present. This “bird in the hand” philosophy is particularly appealing during periods of market volatility or high inflation. Investors often look toward income-generating assets to create a predictable cash flow, which can be reinvested to take advantage of compounding. Furthermore, companies that consistently pay and grow their dividends are often viewed as financially disciplined. This focus on stability is a cornerstone for those utilizing investment advisory and portfolio management services to preserve capital while seeking consistent growth. For those looking beyond traditional stocks, certain structured notes for UAE investors can also offer yield-enhancement features that complement a dividend-focused strategy. Explore Global Investment Opportunities Access diverse markets and expert insights through our DIFC desk. Explore Trading Products What is the difference between Dividend Yield and Dividend Payout Ratio? It is common for novice investors to confuse these two metrics, but they serve very different purposes. While the Dividend Yield tells you what you are earning, the Dividend Payout Ratio tells you how sustainable that payment is. The payout ratio measures the percentage of a company’s net income that is distributed as dividends. A yield might be an attractive 8%, but if the payout ratio is over 100%, the company is paying out more than it earns—a red flag that a dividend cut is imminent. Sophisticated investors often prefer a moderate yield paired with a conservative payout ratio, ensuring the company retains enough earnings to reinvest in future growth. This level of fundamental analysis is similar to how value investors use the Price-to-Book ratio to evaluate if a company is truly undervalued or simply struggling. What are the risks of a high Dividend Yield? A high dividend yield is not always a sign of a healthy investment. In many cases, an exceptionally high yield is the result of a “yield trap.” This occurs when a company’s stock price has plummeted due to fundamental business failures, causing the yield to spike artificially. If a company’s yield is significantly higher than its industry average, it may indicate that the market expects a dividend slash. Furthermore, high-yield stocks can be sensitive to interest rate hikes. When interest rates rise, fixed-income assets like bonds become more competitive. Investors should compare equity yields against global bonds and debentures to ensure the risk-adjusted return remains favorable. In volatile climates, some investors pivot to structured products that offer “soft protection” barriers, providing a safety cushion that traditional high-yield stocks cannot match. How does Dividend Yield impact a total return strategy? Total return is the sum of capital appreciation plus all dividends and interest earned. Dividend yield plays a massive role in this equation, especially over long horizons. Historically, dividends have accounted for a significant portion of total returns in major indices like the S&P 500. For investors in the UAE, focusing on yield can provide a defensive hedge. By reinvesting these yields, investors can accumulate more shares when prices are low. This strategy is effective across various asset classes, from US stocks and ETFs to the burgeoning Indian equity market. Whether you are looking for growth or income, a balanced approach that accounts for yield ensures your portfolio remains productive even when price growth slows down. Tailored Wealth Solutions Build a resilient portfolio with our expert wealth management team. Learn About Structured Notes Conclusion: Integrating Yield into a Robust Portfolio Dividend yield is a powerful tool for any investor, but it should never be viewed in isolation. A truly effective investment strategy balances the immediate gratification of a high yield with the long-term sustainability of the underlying business. By understanding the relationship between share price, payout ratios, and market cycles, investors can distinguish between genuine value and deceptive traps. As you refine your approach to income investing, remember that the quality of the asset is just as important as the size of the payout. Utilizing professional platforms and expert guidance can help you identify high-quality yields across global markets, ensuring your portfolio remains a source of strength regardless of economic headwinds. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

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Weekly Global Market News – february Week 3

February 13 – Daily Market Update

Futures Pricing And Valuation

February 12 – Daily Market Update

The Inverse Relationship Between Bond Prices and Yields

February 11 – Daily Market Update

Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP)

February 10 – Daily Market Update

Capital Protection Structures

understanding dividend yield investment guide

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