Dec 26 Markets: Gold & Oil Rally, Stocks Flat, Bitcoin Up

Dec 25- Daily Market Updates

Markets Daily — Broad Market Update As of 05:13 a.m. ET

S&P 500 Futures: 6981
Spot Gold: 4,518.93
Nikkei 225: 50750.39
Bitcoin: 88818.9
WTI Crude Oil Futures: 58.48

Note: Pricing may be delayed depending on data provider agreements.

Market overview

A calm, holiday-thinned session is keeping risk appetite steady into year-end. US equity futures are essentially flat after a record-setting run, while Asia ended broadly higher led by Japan. Precious metals extended a powerful rally on safe-haven demand and a softer dollar tone, and crude is firmer as supply and geopolitical headlines keep a bid under energy markets. Digital assets are higher, with Bitcoin advancing back toward recent highs.

Equities

US: Futures are little changed after the Christmas break with the S&P 500 hovering near all-time highs. Light liquidity and year-end rebalancing flows may continue to dampen intraday volatility.
Asia: The Nikkei rose, underpinned by exporters and financials as currency dynamics remain supportive for earnings. Trading volumes were subdued with several regional markets still on holiday schedules.
Europe: A mixed open is likely as investors weigh gains in commodities against thin participation. With many bourses reopening from extended breaks, dispersion by sector remains a key theme.

Commodities

Precious metals: Gold, silver, and platinum are pushing deeper into record territory, supported by ongoing geopolitical unease, central-bank buying interest, and a modestly softer US dollar. Dip-buying and momentum participation continue to reinforce the trend late in the year.
Energy: Crude is set for its strongest weekly advance since late October as traders monitor evolving supply constraints and regional security developments. Refining margins and product tightness are adding a layer of support, though headline sensitivity remains elevated.

Foreign exchange

Yen: The currency remains on the back foot despite the Bank of Japan’s recent rate move. Wide US–Japan yield differentials, negative real rates in Japan, and persistent overseas investment flows are keeping USD/JPY elevated near the mid-150s. Official rhetoric has turned more forceful, raising the possibility of episodic intervention, but lasting relief would likely require a more pronounced policy shift or a narrowing of global rate spreads.
Dollar: The greenback is modestly softer against a basket of peers as commodities and high-beta FX catch a tailwind in quiet trade. Any shift in US rate expectations or a surprise in incoming data could reintroduce two-way risk into year-end.
EM FX: Benefiting selectively from broader risk-on sentiment and firmer commodity prices, though liquidity constraints can magnify moves in either direction this week.

Rates and credit

Sovereign yields are steady to slightly higher at the long end as investors price a cautious path for global policy easing in 2026. In Japan, inflation running above the 2% objective continues to pressure government bond yields higher even as the BOJ signals gradualism.
Credit markets remain resilient into the final stretch of the year; primary issuance is seasonally quiet, and secondary trading is characterized by tight bid-ask spreads in higher-quality paper.

Digital assets

Bitcoin is up about 1% near 88,800, tracking broader risk sentiment and lighter volumes. Volatility has compressed relative to earlier in the quarter, but catalysts around flows and regulatory developments can still drive abrupt moves.

What we’re watching

Liquidity: Holiday schedules and year-end portfolio adjustments can exaggerate intraday swings and momentum.
Policy path: Market-based indicators suggest a measured trajectory for developed-market rate cuts next year; surprises in inflation or growth could reset expectations quickly.
Geopolitics and supply: Energy and metals remain sensitive to headlines around shipping, sanctions, and regional security.
Japan: The timing and pace of BOJ normalization vs. global easing cycles will be central to yen direction and long-end JGB dynamics.

Positioning themes into year-end

Quality leadership: Profitable large caps and balance-sheet strength continue to command premiums in a low-liquidity environment.
Commodity resilience: Precious metals and energy have momentum support, though pullbacks are likely if the dollar firms or headline risk fades.
FX dispersion: Yield differentials remain the dominant driver; intervention risk is highest where currency moves are deemed disorderly.

This publication is a general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. All data is provided as of the timestamp above and may be subject to revision.

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