16 February 2026 - Daily Market Updates

Markets Daily — Broad Market Briefing

As of 6:50 a.m. ET

Equities: European benchmarks edged higher, with the region-wide gauge hovering near 620, up roughly 0.3%.
Currencies: The US dollar index was marginally firmer, near 1,182 on a broad trade-weighted basis.
Commodities: WTI crude traded just under $63, slightly higher on the session; gold eased about 0.7%.
Digital assets: Bitcoin hovered around $68.6k, down modestly.

Macro and market context

Risk tone: Global equities started the week on a constructive note despite thin liquidity across parts of Asia due to Lunar New Year holidays and North American holiday closures. Participation is lighter, but dip-buying interest remains evident in select tech, industrials and consumer names.
Rates backdrop: After a strong week for sovereign bonds driven by renewed wagers on policy easing later this year, traders are now focused on a dense run of growth and inflation data that could recalibrate the path of rate expectations.
AI narrative, two-way risk: Markets continue to grapple with the balance between productivity upside from artificial intelligence and the near-term drag from heavy capital outlays. That tension is visible in equity factor performance (infrastructure and security favored over certain application layers) and in credit markets, where hedging demand has picked up around large capex spenders. Expect dispersion within tech to remain elevated.

Overnight movers and themes

Europe: Cyclical and quality-growth pockets led early gains. Select materials shares underperformed after broker actions, while parts of the UK small/mid-cap software space lagged following deal headlines that removed a potential bid premium. Defensive sectors were mixed as bond yields steadied.
Energy and commodities: Oil was broadly steady as supply discipline and a measured demand outlook offset each other; gold softened alongside a slightly firmer dollar. Industrial metals remained rangebound pending fresh China activity signals.
FX: The dollar ticked higher against a basket of majors, while several high-carry emerging-market currencies were relatively resilient amid stable commodity prices and subdued volatility.

The week ahead — key indicators and events

Monday:
- North America: US markets closed for Presidents’ Day; Canada closed for Family Day.
- Latin America: Brazil closed for Carnival (through Feb. 17).
- Asia: Several markets closed or operating on shortened schedules for Lunar New Year.

Tuesday:
- - Europe: Germany’s inflation updates and sentiment surveys; UK labor market figures.
  - US: Regional manufacturing pulse.
  - Asia: Mainland China closed for Lunar New Year.

Wednesday:
- Europe/Asia: France inflation; Japan trade balance.
- UK: CPI inflation.
- US: Housing starts, industrial production, leading indicators, core durable goods.
- Earnings: Mix of global miners, ratings/analytics, and chip-related bellwethers.

Thursday:
- Europe: Euro-area consumer confidence.
- US: Weekly jobless claims, advanced indicators, trade, pending home sales.
- Earnings: Large-cap retail, diversified industrials, and resources.

Friday:
- Europe/Asia: Euro-area PMIs, Japan CPI, UK retail sales.
- North America: Canada retail sales; US personal income/spending with PCE inflation, GDP update, new home sales, manufacturing PMI, and consumer sentiment.
- Policy watch: US legal and policy developments remain on the radar for potential implications to trade and tariff expectations.

Strategy watch — what we’re tracking

Tech dispersion: Investors continue to differentiate between AI “enablers” (compute, data infrastructure, observability, cybersecurity, cloud platforms) and areas where automation may compress pricing power. Expect continued rotation within software and services as spending priorities evolve.
Credit hedging: As capex cycles swell at mega-cap platforms and select hyperscale-adjacent players, appetite for downside protection in credit has increased. Monitor spreads and hedging costs as leading indicators of stress or confidence in return on investment.
Rates and duration: A heavy slate of growth and inflation data could challenge last week’s bond rally. A hotter PCE or firm PMIs would likely nudge front-end yields higher; a downside surprise would reinforce soft-landing hopes.
FX and EM: Carry and commodity support have steadied several emerging currencies relative to G-7 peers. Watch terms-of-trade shifts if oil and base metals break out of recent ranges.

Quick take by asset class

Equities: Breadth remains a focal point. Participation outside of the largest tech names has improved in fits and starts, but durability likely hinges on confirmation from earnings revisions and macro surprises.
Fixed income: The balance between disinflation progress and growth resilience remains tight. The next PCE print is pivotal for validating or challenging current rate-cut timelines.
Commodities: Crude is pinned between disciplined supply and a cautious demand outlook; volatility may rise around inventory data and growth prints. Precious metals remain sensitive to real yields and the dollar.
Crypto: Consolidation persists after a strong multi-month run; flows and regulatory headlines remain key swing factors.

Housekeeping and market closures

US: Closed today for Presidents’ Day.
Canada: Closed today for Family Day.
Asia: Multiple markets closed or on reduced hours for Lunar New Year through midweek.
Brazil: Markets closed for Carnival through Feb. 17.

Key risks to monitor

Data surprises on inflation and growth that shift the policy path.
Earnings guidance tied to AI spending payback periods.
Geopolitics and trade policy developments.
Liquidity pockets around holiday-thinned sessions.

This material is a general market update for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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